Falling 21-tonne Chinese rocket ‘garbage’ to land anywhere from Denmark to Australia

 
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
An uncontrolled 21-tonne Chinese rocket falling to Earth will land anywhere from Denmark to the south of Australia in the coming days – but the crash site is unknown.

China's Long March 5B rocket launched part of the new Chinese space station into orbit last week.

“We do know it will come down, and most likely it will happen over an uninhabited piece of Earth,”

Australian National University Astrophysicist Dr Brad Tucker said. Former NASA astronaut Tom Jones said the chance of being hit by the rocket, which will “probably” be broken into small pieces, was “infinitesimal” but constituted an embarrassment for China to allow the “garbage to fall on our heads”.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6252619226001

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  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
An uncontrolled 21-tonne Chinese rocket falling to Earth will land anywhere from Denmark to the south of Australia in the coming days – but the crash site is unknown.

China's Long March 5B rocket launched part of the new Chinese space station into orbit last week.

“We do know it will come down, and most likely it will happen over an uninhabited piece of Earth,”

Australian National University Astrophysicist Dr Brad Tucker said. Former NASA astronaut Tom Jones said the chance of being hit by the rocket, which will “probably” be broken into small pieces, was “infinitesimal” but constituted an embarrassment for China to allow the “garbage to fall on our heads”.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6252619226001
bevans
SpaceX had a similar but smaller problem last month
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
How come the rocket is to fall back to earth is this deliberate act from the Chinese to deorbit the rocket ?

What happened with the space station piece is it still up there ?
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
How come the rocket is to fall back to earth is this deliberate act from the Chinese to deorbit the rocket ?

What happened with the space station piece is it still up there ?
freightgate
Rockets and large items launched into space generally return to earth or eventually loose orbit.....
  Carnot Minister for Railways

How come the rocket is to fall back to earth is this deliberate act from the Chinese to deorbit the rocket ?

What happened with the space station piece is it still up there ?
Rockets and large items launched into space generally return to earth or eventually loose orbit.....
speedemon08
A lot depends on the trajectory and the way a rocket/spacecraft is staged.

A good example is the Space Shuttle external fuel tank.  It provided the fuel for the Orbiter's 3 main engines, but the last 'nudge' to put it into orbit was provided by the 2 small OMS rocket engines.  The fuel tank would usually then deorbit into the Indian Ocean (usually) since it wasn't quite at Low Earth Orbit velocity and was also deliberately 'tumbled' by venting excess oxygen to quicken its descent.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
How come the rocket is to fall back to earth is this deliberate act from the Chinese to deorbit the rocket ?

What happened with the space station piece is it still up there ?
freightgate
It transported its load, then job done was supposed to do a controlled reentry to maximise chances of burn up and what ever is left land in areas with no human occupation in the southern ocean or south pacific. But it failed to do the 2nd burn.

I dont' know why it failed to light up that burn, but in space its complex to light a liquid rocket engine as the rocket needs to be under the influence of a force (artificle gravity) to force fuel into the turbo pump.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
How come the rocket is to fall back to earth is this deliberate act from the Chinese to deorbit the rocket ?

What happened with the space station piece is it still up there ?
Rockets and large items launched into space generally return to earth or eventually loose orbit.....
A lot depends on the trajectory and the way a rocket/spacecraft is staged.

A good example is the Space Shuttle external fuel tank.  It provided the fuel for the Orbiter's 3 main engines, but the last 'nudge' to put it into orbit was provided by the 2 small OMS rocket engines.  The fuel tank would usually then deorbit into the Indian Ocean (usually) since it wasn't quite at Low Earth Orbit velocity and was also deliberately 'tumbled' by venting excess oxygen to quicken its descent.
Carnot
The tumbling is also used to help break it up once it hits the atmosphere.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Did China actually succeed in placing the first part of a space station into orbit?
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Various space agencies are starting to predict re-entry times...
08 May 22:11 UTC (±21 hours) US Space Force
09 May 02:34 UTC (±21 hours) Aerospace
09 May 07:31 UTC (±17:56) European Space Agency

The uncertainties are quite large (21 hours is 13.5 orbits) because a slowly decaying orbit and a spacecraft in an uncontrolled tumble could bounce off the upper atmosphere multiple times (or none at all!) before finally re-entering.
SpaceX had a similar but smaller problem last month
RTT_Rules
Whether it does turn out to be a smaller problem is yet to play out. My guess is that the single stage to orbit Long March 5B will break up much more readily than those Falcon 9 second stage pressure tanks which stayed intact thanks to the thick layer of insulation needed to get them through ride share missions.

Did China actually succeed in placing the first part of a space station into orbit?
bevans
Yes. You can see it on any of the satellite tracking websites.

As I write this it is over the southern Atlantic Ocean, after having passed over Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Andes Mountains and the southernmost part of Brazil.

China has gone in the opposite direction to the USA and Russia by starting off with uncrewed orbital labs before moving on to this as their first crewed one. Once completed next year, Tiangong is planned to be a little bigger than Mir was, but still much smaller than the ISS.
  ANR Chief Commissioner

It won't land in the South China Sea, that's for sure, because the CCP space officials said it will crash in international waters.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Latest projection from tracking data by the ESA is 03:15 UTC tomorrow (11:15, 12:45, 13:15 in Australian time zones) with an uncertainty of ±11 hours.

Aerospace Corp's latest prediction is 04:19 UTC ±8 hours.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The Russians have narrowed it down a bit. The Murray River is in with a chance.

  ANR Chief Commissioner

I reckon it is headed straight for Canberra.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Hmmmm:
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

I reckon it is headed straight for Canberra.
ANR
Is space junk considered a first strike weapon?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I reckon it is headed straight for Canberra.
Is space junk considered a first strike weapon?
michaelgm
I thought Covid-19 was.  The Chinese have a habit of losing control of dangerous things and unleashing them on the world...

Anyway, it looks like Brisvegas is going to be OK, but I reckon just North of the Murray River is in with a good shot for impact around 11am.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

55 minutes to go to the middle of the projected window, which includes data from a network of Southern Hemisphere sensors in Argentina, South Africa and Australia.



The last few US Space Command and Russian predictions are converging towards the EUSST projection.

The Aerospace Corp predictions are looking less reliable, they have shifted forwards rapidly with each update and now their website has crashed. Looks like they were out for some quick publicity and have achieved their goal.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

North coast of Tasmania looks possible. Perhaps a new exhibit at MONA in Hobart incoming?
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Bonus points if it lands on top of Skylab debris?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

It ended up in the Indian Ocean near the Maldives.

Half the Aussie Cricket team who are escaping India probably saw it...
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

It ended up in the Indian Ocean near the Maldives.

Half the Aussie Cricket team who are escaping India probably saw it...
Carnot
They would have had to be watching it more closely than they watched the ball during the last Test series.

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