The China Problem

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2022 16:40
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

I can't remember, was it Poland or Mongolia that Hitler and Stalin agreed to share to keep the peace?
Mongolia ... Why on Earth would the Jerry's have wanted that?
Dangersdan707

You do realise, that because I'm speaking in metaphors, my question was rhetorical.  Or did I miss something?

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  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
An interesting development

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-05-31/van-dairy-sells-off-12-farms/100177614

Good news for the many people who thought that the sale should never have been allowed in the first place
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I wonder if Chinese hackers were behind this cyberattack?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-31/jbs-meatworks-across-australia-us-canada-hit-by-cyber-attack/100178310

Given that the global cattle herd is in serious strife as well, expect some big price rises in the short to medium term for beef.
  Madjikthise Deputy Commissioner

Predicting more regular reports of "cyberattack" as an excuse to cover corporate stuff ups. Government's already tried to use that excuse when it was just a case of too many people logging on at once.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Predicting more regular reports of "cyberattack" as an excuse to cover corporate stuff ups. Government's already tried to use that excuse when it was just a case of too many people logging on at once.
Madjikthise
Yeah a 'denial of service attack' that just turned out to be a hopelessly unprepared ABS.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Fears are growing that Beijing’s ban on Australian coal may remain in place for several years with 15 ships carrying $440m of supplies from Queensland mines remaining stranded off the coast of China, a year after the trade stand-off first began.

Beijing in January instructed owners of the banned Australian coal to find new buyers outside of China, as Xi Jinping’s administration scuttled the $14bn export trade and ramped up pressure on the Morrison government.
Between five to seven vessels carrying Australian coal have been discharged each month but the supplies remain stored in bonded areas and have not been released through customs, sources told The Australian.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-coal-ban-may-stay-for-years-says-goldman-sachs/news-story/ed99b64c6c783fc50e879812e2c2b6ff
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Fears are growing that Beijing’s ban on Australian coal may remain in place for several years with 15 ships carrying $440m of supplies from Queensland mines remaining stranded off the coast of China, a year after the trade stand-off first began.

Beijing in January instructed owners of the banned Australian coal to find new buyers outside of China, as Xi Jinping’s administration scuttled the $14bn export trade and ramped up pressure on the Morrison government.
Between five to seven vessels carrying Australian coal have been discharged each month but the supplies remain stored in bonded areas and have not been released through customs, sources told The Australian.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-coal-ban-may-stay-for-years-says-goldman-sachs/news-story/ed99b64c6c783fc50e879812e2c2b6ff
bevans
Those ships are STILL there? Incredible.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Fears are growing that Beijing’s ban on Australian coal may remain in place for several years with 15 ships carrying $440m of supplies from Queensland mines remaining stranded off the coast of China, a year after the trade stand-off first began.
bevans

My view is the Australian Gvt should have bought back all the coal stuck in transit.  The current trade dispute it's hardly the miner's fault, and I think it's only fair the sovereign risk posed by our government's diplomatic efforts be shared.  Perhaps funded by a mandatory insurance scheme that applied to all exports, weighted by the sovereign risk experience on case by case basis of course - that might (depending on the independent culturally unbiased actuarial assessment) see a modest levy on Fe exports to pay for it all.

It would have done us no harm at all to donate some of that coal as a humanitarian gesture, once reports of people freezing to death in blacked out apartments hit the news last northern winter.

Whatever our political or ideological differences, ordinary people should not have to suffer because we can't agree on the price of fish.  On the anniversary of an event which apparently never actually occurred, here is a reminder of how to do diplomacy with many cultures in northern Asia, cultures which gave the world the story of the Emperor’s new clothes.  A genuine emotional expression that whatever offence we might cause, it's not because we don't care, it's because we do.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Regardless, how good is China for continuing to prop up our economy buying our Iron Ore.
Pig Iron anyone?
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
...

Whatever our political or ideological differences, ordinary people should not have to suffer because we can't agree on the price of fish.  On the anniversary of an event which apparently never actually occurred, here is a reminder of how to do diplomacy with many cultures in northern Asia, cultures which gave the world the story of the Emperor’s new clothes.  A genuine emotional expression that whatever offence we might cause, it's not because we don't care, it's because we do.
djf01
One of Hawke's most shocking acts of betrayal, outwardly condemned the communists but almost immediately after retirement got paid millions for lobbying on behalf of Chinese government entities to buy up Australian farms, ports, electricity grids etc. He actually had an office in Shanghai and was prominent in some really big sales including (for example) 1% of the Australian land mass in the Ord directly to a Chinese-government linked company.

Had no problem doing deals on behalf of said murderers. What a champ.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Fears are growing that Beijing’s ban on Australian coal may remain in place for several years with 15 ships carrying $440m of supplies from Queensland mines remaining stranded off the coast of China, a year after the trade stand-off first began.

Beijing in January instructed owners of the banned Australian coal to find new buyers outside of China, as Xi Jinping’s administration scuttled the $14bn export trade and ramped up pressure on the Morrison government.
Between five to seven vessels carrying Australian coal have been discharged each month but the supplies remain stored in bonded areas and have not been released through customs, sources told The Australian.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-coal-ban-may-stay-for-years-says-goldman-sachs/news-story/ed99b64c6c783fc50e879812e2c2b6ff
bevans
Will be interesting to uncover the truth of it someday.

Originally there were 50+ ships stranded. Not allowed to unload, not allowed to leave and sell elsewhere.

"Only" 15 left suggests that approx 40 ships worth of coal are now sitting in "bonded areas".

Usually "bonded" means not yet paid for, yet incurring storage fees.
And that is a massive mountain to look after.
And China were freezing their proverbials off with power blackouts (courtesy coal shortage)

Any bets that the "bonded areas" are inside hungry furnaces.  Win win for Xi Jiping. Free fuel and imposing hostage fees.

Do the released ships' owners have the balls to refuse any further trips to China, irrespective of the supplier country.

cheers
John
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The Chinese might have another big problem. And I used to joke that it was the British that leaked everything:
  Carnot Minister for Railways
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Hong Kong is finished.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-17/apple-daily-arrests-hong-kong-jimmy-lai/100222596

Sad.
Carnot
It was always 'finished' - from the moment that Thatcher signed it over wholesale to the CCP in 1984. Anyone who thought otherwise was dreaming - the CCP by necessity need to silence any and all criticism or the veil gets ripped away and they're in danger of insurrection.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Can Mark McGowan be booted out/jailed for treason?  What an absolute goose:

https://www.watoday.com.au/world/asia/the-chinese-community-group-the-consulate-and-the-labor-premier-20210621-p582ra.html

Mark would rather WA be a province of CCP China than a State within the Australian federation.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
Hong Kong is finished.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-17/apple-daily-arrests-hong-kong-jimmy-lai/100222596

Sad.
Carnot
Hong Kong has been part of China for over two thousand years, bar a short period when the British took it as war booty. They roundly thrashed the Chinese in a military conflict because the Chinese had the temerity to object to the British turning the Chinese population into a bunch of drug addicts, all in the name of a sancrosanct balance of trade. These wonderful British, who, along with their lapdog Don here, love to lecture us about the superiority of their ways, thought nothing of developing a market for, and  importing huge amounts of opium into China, and were willing to go to war against the Chinese government who, for whatever reason, objected to their population being turned into a bunch of dribbling wasters. The British claimed it was their moral right, much as they claimed it was their moral right to take the musket to pesky indiginous Australians, occupying valuable agricultural and mineral rich land for no other purpose than to do a bit of idling. thanks to the foresight of these British settlers we now enjoy the fruits of the red-hot real estate market which gives us such joy and wealth. Honestly, some people carry on as if Hong Kong was Plato's Republic, sitting just off the Isle of Whyte.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Banned
Billy's remarks may go some way to explaining the old saw from the days when the British Empire's countries appeared in red on maps all over the place.
It was said that "The sun never sets on the British Empire."
Some wiseacre quipped, "That's because not even God would trust them in the dark."
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Honestly, some people carry on as if Hong Kong was Plato's Republic, sitting just off the Isle of Whyte.
billybaxter
Even in a communist country you would still be in trouble for writing stuff like that on the interwebs, Billy - you simply don't have the authority to comment on political issues like that. It's the very rare miracle of liberal democracy that allows you to do what you do -
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Banned
Courtesy of Nine News this evening:-

"Hong Kong’s pro-democracy Apple Daily newspaper will close by this weekend after police arrested five editors and executives and froze over $3 million in assets linked to the paper.
The board of directors said in a statement today that its print edition and online edition will cease no later than Saturday due to “the current circumstances prevailing in Hong Kong”.
The widely expected move followed last week’s arrests.
The five were detained on suspicion of colluding with foreigners to endanger national security.
Police cited more than 30 articles published by the paper as evidence of an alleged conspiracy to impose foreign sanctions on Hong Kong and China.
It was the freezing of assets that spelled the paper's demise.
The board of directors had earlier this week written to Hong Kong's security bureau requesting the release of some of its funds so that the company could pay wages.
The police operation against Apple Daily drew criticism from the US, the EU and Britain, which say Hong Kong and Chinese authorities are targeting the freedoms promised to the city when the former British colony was returned to China in 1997.
Chinese and Hong Kong officials have said the media must abide by the law, and that press freedom cannot be used as a "shield" for illegal activities.
Meanwhile, the first person to stand trial under Hong Kong's national security law pleaded not guilty today to charges of terrorism and inciting secession by driving a motorcycle into police officers while carrying a protest flag.
Tong Ying-kit was arrested on July 1, 2020, a day after the sweeping national security law took effect in response to massive pro-democracy protests that challenged Beijing's rule."
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Nothing will happen against the CCP in the short-term.

I was listening to a segment on RN the other day and the expert said that Xi is busy re-writing history as they each do. Xi's take on things like the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward deaths is to tell the families of the dead that they died in a noble cause, the cause of the modernization of China.

Hooray.
  Madjikthise Deputy Commissioner

"Microsoft blocks Bing from showing image results for Tiananmen ‘tank man’ "

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jun/04/microsoft-bing-tiananmen-tank-man-results

Here's my take on it. This got attention because it is such a high profile event, and it was glaringly obvious that something was amiss. Now think about other, not so high profile events. How much is getting blocked by various search engines that may be extremely important to the people affected, but never sees the light of day elsewhere due to these supposed "human errors"?
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
"Microsoft blocks Bing from showing image results for Tiananmen ‘tank man’ "

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jun/04/microsoft-bing-tiananmen-tank-man-results

Here's my take on it. This got attention because it is such a high profile event, and it was glaringly obvious that something was amiss. Now think about other, not so high profile events. How much is getting blocked by various search engines that may be extremely important to the people affected, but never sees the light of day elsewhere due to these supposed "human errors"?
Madjikthise
Apple, Google, Microsoft etc have all been collaborating with the CCP quite openly. Google was developing a search engine that would be directly controlled by the Politburo but shareholder activism and US government pressure stopped them from going any further.

There's a buck to be made don't you know.
  Madjikthise Deputy Commissioner

"Microsoft blocks Bing from showing image results for Tiananmen ‘tank man’ "

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jun/04/microsoft-bing-tiananmen-tank-man-results

Here's my take on it. This got attention because it is such a high profile event, and it was glaringly obvious that something was amiss. Now think about other, not so high profile events. How much is getting blocked by various search engines that may be extremely important to the people affected, but never sees the light of day elsewhere due to these supposed "human errors"?
Apple, Google, Microsoft etc have all been collaborating with the CCP quite openly. Google was developing a search engine that would be directly controlled by the Politburo but shareholder activism and US government pressure stopped them from going any further.

There's a buck to be made don't you know.
don_dunstan
Oh with the CCP yes that's a given, but I'm wondering about events closer to home.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Apple, Google, Microsoft etc have all been collaborating with the CCP quite openly. Google was developing a search engine that would be directly controlled by the Politburo but shareholder activism and US government pressure stopped them from going any further.

There's a buck to be made don't you know.
Oh with the CCP yes that's a given, but I'm wondering about events closer to home.
Madjikthise
This is primarily what the CCP are pushing for - they want the West to censor itself when it comes to China and Chinese history/politics under the guise of their 'feelings' being hurt if we discuss things like the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution or the 'incident' at Tienanmen Square. How you hurt the feelings of a communist dictatorship is really hard to visualize but that's what they say.

The problem is that we have lots of barracking supports on both sides of politics (but particularly in the Labor Party) who are more than willing to make this happen - witness the relentless criticism from the ALP against the government on the trade relationship with China telling them that we need to be more 'sensitive' when dealing with the CCP. This is clearly what the CCP want - self-censorship so that they don't even have to remind us of what we can and can't discuss.  

There's a huge list of things on the 'do not discuss' list in China - among them Western literary classics like Nineteen Eighty Four and Brave New World. They treat their population like they're children who can't be exposed to ideas... its absurd.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
There's been an outbreak of 'delta variant' COVID in Southern China leading to a lock-down of shipping in the global manufacturing hub with resultant problems in supply chains across the world - not that we've heard about this of course - Doomsbergs;

The Chinese province of Guangzhou is dealing with an outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19, a highly contagious form of the virus originally discovered in India. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a history of aggressively dealing with localized COVID-19 outbreaks, and this time is no different, global supply chains be damned. And damned they will be. In late May, the CCP effectively shut down these two ports, leading to an unprecedented shipping logjam that will make the March 2021 blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given seem downright trivial.

Global container shipping was already a mess before this incident. Below is a chart of the cost to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles as far back as my Bloomberg machine has been keeping score. We were cast away in uncharted waters well before this latest shipwreck.

Reports from China indicate a spike in estimated wait time to dock at these two ports from half a day to 16 days or more. The ports are beginning to partially reopen, although this is doing little to alleviate the growing backlog.

Brian Glick, founder and CEO at supply chain integration platform Chain.io, was quoted in a CNBC article this morning. Here’s his key message:

“Many small- and mid-sized shippers are throwing up their hands as the cost of shipping is surpassing the margins on the products they’re trying to move. Shipping costs are at all-time highs with anecdotal quotes coming in at 5 to 10 times historical norms. We’ve broken through so many price ceilings that nobody can say where this will peak.”

COVID is the problem that will continue to echo through the global economy for years to come - but on the other hand maybe we'll get the price inflation that the RBA has been looking for.

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