The Aussie political economy -

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-11/workers-wages-superannuation-guarantee-rise-employers-budget/100206954


Superannuation rises could come at the cost of wages — workers may end up paying for their own super rise

Shock horror, where did they think the money was coming from? Where did they think it came from last time?

Do they think employers have the financial ability to just add another few percent to their employ Gross wage bill?

Compulsory Super is about forcing self funded savings for retirement and provide a standard of living in retirement that is linked to your life-time earnings, rather than the more socialistic minimum standard one size fits all OAP scheme that will in time be phased out or at least replaced that we have known for last 60 odd years. However it was always going to be a 40 - 50 year transition period and the longer they take to force it up to around 25-35% the longer it was take for the transition to be complete.
shock horror,
we are now into the 30th year of the transition, and another 5 years until we get to 12.5% (half the low end of your preferred number).

All the time the LNP/IPA have to be dragged kicking and screaming.

Employers not have the capacity.
Same BS excuse for not paying workers a rise for a decade, assuming they didn't find a sneaky loophole to reduce/steal.
justarider
Yes, times a lagging. Should have been increased during the mid 2000's

Lets not forget that in the last 14 years, the LNP have been in power for just 50% of the time, others could have also made changes apart from the 0.5% increase in 2014.

So you think all employees have a slush fund to pay what ever? Got to love a socialist, always solving the worlds problems with other peoples money and that always works out so well, not!

Who hasn't got a pay rise in a decade? I've said it before (for the last 10 years) and I'll say it again, go back to 2003 and add inflation to your salary. If you are earning more than that without a promotion or scope change, you were/are earning too much money due to the boom years and your job is now at risk as the boom years are finished. Also moral of the story, no inflation, no wage rises are justified, economics 101.

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  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-11/workers-wages-superannuation-guarantee-rise-employers-budget/100206954


Superannuation rises could come at the cost of wages — workers may end up paying for their own super rise

Shock horror, where did they think the money was coming from? Where did they think it came from last time?

Do they think employers have the financial ability to just add another few percent to their employ Gross wage bill?

Compulsory Super is about forcing self funded savings for retirement and provide a standard of living in retirement that is linked to your life-time earnings, rather than the more socialistic minimum standard one size fits all OAP scheme that will in time be phased out or at least replaced that we have known for last 60 odd years. However it was always going to be a 40 - 50 year transition period and the longer they take to force it up to around 25-35% the longer it was take for the transition to be complete.
shock horror,
we are now into the 30th year of the transition, and another 5 years until we get to 12.5% (half the low end of your preferred number).

All the time the LNP/IPA have to be dragged kicking and screaming.

Employers not have the capacity.
Same BS excuse for not paying workers a rise for a decade, assuming they didn't find a sneaky loophole to reduce/steal.
justarider
Yes, times a lagging. Should have been increased during the mid 2000's

Lets not forget that in the last 14 years, the LNP have been in power for just 50% of the time, others could have also made changes apart from the 0.5% increase in 2014.

So you think all employees have a slush fund to pay what ever? Got to love a socialist, always solving the worlds problems with other peoples money and that always works out so well, not!

Who hasn't got a pay rise in a decade? I've said it before (for the last 10 years) and I'll say it again, go back to 2003 and add inflation to your salary. If you are earning more than that without a promotion or scope change, you were/are earning too much money due to the boom years and your job is now at risk as the boom years are finished. Also moral of the story, no inflation, no wage rises are justified, economics 101.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Peter Dutton is set to announce the scrapping of the Attack Class project to be replaced by a program to refurbish the Collins Class and make them viable for at least another ten years. From Reuters:

Australia will refurbish its ageing Collins-class submarine fleet, The Australian newspaper reported on Friday, as doubts over Canberra’s A$50 billion ($38.8 billion) deal for 12 new submarines built by French shipbuilder Naval Group grow.

Australia in 2016 selected Naval Group to build a new submarine fleet to replace its more than two-decades-old Collins submarines and significantly expand its military to protect strategic and trade interests in the Asia-Pacific.

The deal, one of the world's most lucrative defence deals, has been beset by issues and delays due to Canberra's requirement that the majority of the manufacturing and components be sourced locally.

As a result, Australian defence officials to last month said they were undertaking "contingency planning".

Casting further doubt over the deal with Naval Group, The Australian reported the Minister for Defence Peter Dutton will order a refit of existing Collins-class submarines.

"Clearly there have been problems with the arrangements with Naval Group,” Dutton told The Australian.

"There has been concern on both sides in relation to the programme and I need to make sure that we have the best capacity available to us."

The French initially agreed to manufacture 60% of the content on-shore in Australia but this has steadily fallen to the point where they're now refusing to make even ten percent of the fit-out here in Australia preferring instead to use existing suppliers in Europe and fully import almost all of the content into Australia. This is in clear breach of their commitment to the Australian government at the signing of the contract.

Not sure what sort of technology will be used to update the Collins Class but given the situation with China appears to be escalating perhaps we're better off using what we have rather than waiting ten years for the first Attack Class to get delivered.
don_dunstan
Have to congratulate the govt for this move.

French have reneged on the Australian local content percentage, then cancel the contract.

Also I suspect the fact the French have basically reneged and the Australian  govt budget has taken a massive hit over the last 18mths, that govt is looking for a means to defer major spending. Certainly right now sending billions off-shore is not in the best interest of the economy.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Have to congratulate the govt for this move.

French have reneged on the Australian local content percentage, then cancel the contract.

Also I suspect the fact the French have basically reneged and the Australian  govt budget has taken a massive hit over the last 18mths, that govt is looking for a means to defer major spending. Certainly right now sending billions off-shore is not in the best interest of the economy.
RTT_Rules
This is the polar opposite of your position last year, you realise that don't you.

What changed?
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Have to agree with RTT_Rules on this one, it hobbles Australia's ability to compete head-to-head with Asia like Keating said we were supposed to do.

"Oh you have to compete with Asia but here's a surcharge on top of all the other costs of doing business in this country that you have to pay".

Just watching Albanese on TV doing a puff-piece for the news at his favorite rugby league club. Who cares what you think mate, you don't matter.
Yeah, superannuation hobbles the economy, just like your NDIS payments do.

Albanese can't hold a candle to Morrison insisting that lockdown needed to be delayed until after he could get the chance to drink piss watching the Sharks last year.
Always interesting to see views of people who think companies have capacity to just keep handing money over to employees without having longterm impacts on number employees, business viability, costs etc.
RTT_Rules
Just like every other person on the planet, the strongest evidence I can provide is that which resulted from my own experience. Sure, I can theorise about long term effects on the economy and skew it with my own bias too, but if you've never had a baby then you've never felt the pain etc.

In real terms my wages have fallen significantly over the past 10 years, despite negligible inflation. My employer has just received a 10-year rate reduction from our local government. My employer was not profitable half a dozen years ago, but now is. My employer has seen its employees become disloyal compared to a decade ago.

There are still plenty of employers out there not paying any super, mainly in the small business sector. That's theft, pure and simple, and you're okay with it, because it might have longterm impacts on number employees, business viability, costs etc. The same applies to reduction of super. The vast majority of people, including employers, readily acknowledge that stagnant wage growth is stifling the economy but won't do anything about it.

I'm going to love going into cafes, looking at the blackboard, and saying I've changed my mind because I had to pay for my own super increase and it's cost me some income, any problems ask RTT_Rules.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Have to congratulate the govt for this move.

French have reneged on the Australian local content percentage, then cancel the contract.

Also I suspect the fact the French have basically reneged and the Australian  govt budget has taken a massive hit over the last 18mths, that govt is looking for a means to defer major spending. Certainly right now sending billions off-shore is not in the best interest of the economy.
This is the polar opposite of your position last year, you realise that don't you.

What changed?
don_dunstan
No, I said the project should proceed provided the +50% Australian content is maintained and suspect the French will agree to the terms and conditions they agreed to with potentially some minor changes.

If the French now say its as low as 10% local content, then I say rip up the contract and re-issue the tender.

The option to proceed with an upgrade of the current sub's and defer the new subs if feasible then why not. Right now dumping billions OS is probably not the best for the economy. From a strategic point of view, I have no idea whether this is the right or wrong thing to do.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Always interesting to see views of people who think companies have capacity to just keep handing money over to employees without having longterm impacts on number employees, business viability, costs etc.
Just like every other person on the planet, the strongest evidence I can provide is that which resulted from my own experience. Sure, I can theorise about long term effects on the economy and skew it with my own bias too, but if you've never had a baby then you've never felt the pain etc.

In real terms my wages have fallen significantly over the past 10 years, despite negligible inflation. My employer has just received a 10-year rate reduction from our local government. My employer was not profitable half a dozen years ago, but now is. My employer has seen its employees become disloyal compared to a decade ago.

There are still plenty of employers out there not paying any super, mainly in the small business sector. That's theft, pure and simple, and you're okay with it, because it might have longterm impacts on number employees, business viability, costs etc. The same applies to reduction of super. The vast majority of people, including employers, readily acknowledge that stagnant wage growth is stifling the economy but won't do anything about it.

I'm going to love going into cafes, looking at the blackboard, and saying I've changed my mind because I had to pay for my own super increase and it's cost me some income, any problems ask RTT_Rules.
DirtyBallast
Ok, so you are now twisting things to say I'm ok with employers not paying for SUPER? As you rightly said thats illegal and a separate discussion.

If you are going to continue to twist any comments I make to suit your agenda then I'm not interested.

Moving on
If there is no inflation, you have not been promoted, improved your productivity or added additional value in any other way, please tell me how you deserve a pay rise?

I haven't had a inflationary driven pay rise in 6 years due to a combination of a lack of inflation and poor market conditions. My wife in a different industry its been similar, although with her when that industry took a dive, they were all called in, "you have 10% pay reduction from this month", two months later, same again! When things improved, salaries were returned in most cases.

Poor employers have poor loyalty, nuff said!

You paid for your own Super increases in the past and you will continue to do so going forward. The alternative your employer pays for your SUPER at the expense of your work mates jobs. Make a choice!
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
^ Well, excuse me for not being the eloquent wordsmith that you desire me to be! (At least I can spell Hazelwood though. Wink ) Maybe I was a bit sloppy trying to get my point across, so now I will try to rephrase.

It doesn't matter if an employer withholds all Super or only just a little bit of it. You latched on to the first bit, and ignored the second bit which I originally tried to point out by saying that the same applies to a reduction in Super. Obviously, I should have said a reduction in pay. Whatever, it is still theft, regardless of the amount.  

How has productivity and profitability improved at my workplace? Reduction in manning in some departments and the introduction of a longer working week for the same pay as the previous roster along with extended wage freezes. Other departments took a real pay cut instead. Since July 2014 I have 'enjoyed' a total wage rise of less than 3% which hasn't offset the losses. There is nothing on the horizon to make up for it either. We're locked in until Sept 2023 at which time the company will try and reduce our conditions yet again.

I have never said that employees should get a wage rise for the sake of it, ever. On the other hand employers continually crying poor, even in good times, simply doesn't pass the pub test.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
^ Well, excuse me for not being the eloquent wordsmith that you desire me to be! (At least I can spell Hazelwood though. Wink ) Maybe I was a bit sloppy trying to get my point across, so now I will try to rephrase.

It doesn't matter if an employer withholds all Super or only just a little bit of it. You latched on to the first bit, and ignored the second bit which I originally tried to point out by saying that the same applies to a reduction in Super. Obviously, I should have said a reduction in pay. Whatever, it is still theft, regardless of the amount.  

How has productivity and profitability improved at my workplace? Reduction in manning in some departments and the introduction of a longer working week for the same pay as the previous roster along with extended wage freezes. Other departments took a real pay cut instead. Since July 2014 I have 'enjoyed' a total wage rise of less than 3% which hasn't offset the losses. There is nothing on the horizon to make up for it either. We're locked in until Sept 2023 at which time the company will try and reduce our conditions yet again.

I have never said that employees should get a wage rise for the sake of it, ever. On the other hand employers continually crying poor, even in good times, simply doesn't pass the pub test.
DirtyBallast
Hazelwood is in the PDRV, no one cares how you choose to misspell it.

So, now you are mixing things. By law the employer must pay 9.5% (soon 10%) of your salary in Super. So your now telling me you were stating this is the case. So what's the problem?

If you are talking Total Remuneration package, yes many company's from the early 90's protected themselves and includes SUPER as part of the Total Remuneration package to protect their bottom line from changes to SUPER by govt. 1st job I had out of Uni did this in 1995. $35k including SUPER.

Reduction in manning, check, welcome to +1990's. We just got rid of a few hundred including a friend of mine who worked for me.

Introduction of longer working week for same pay, check. Welcome to my world and most people know.

Wage freeze, check, no inflationary rise in 5-6 years! Small increases I got after starting in 2011 were lost during restructure / bench marking of salary's when the Al price dived in 2014.

Wage cut, check, last Oct we were given a no notice Supervisory level only 15% reduction until we achieved $X targets.

2014 was the end of the mining boom during which period salary's in many cases in heavy industry and support services exceeded inflation unsustainably for nearly 10 years. The correction was always going to come. I've said before, reference 2003, not the end of the mining boom for your wage growth.

Check their balance sheet, then you will know how much money they are really making, or not! If you are referring to who I think you are, then no they haven't made much money. The days of only senior Management wages being linked to company performance is over.


Sorry if above sounds tough, but this is the reality of the situation. Australia might be a fenced off island but it still competes globally. Yes, SUPER will be funded by mostly employees going forward as it has in the past, however unlike the past there was no inflationary wage rises to hide the fact.

The good part of the CV-19 pandemic was the change in attitude by employers to people working from home.
The bad thing about the Pandemic is people showed their boss they don't need to be in the office to get their work done. So why pay Australian salaries to work from home when you can pay Indian's in India to work from home. Interesting CEO of a large multi national bank based in NY said recently, if you are not in working in the office in NY by Sept, you will not receive a NY based salary. Basically indicating those working from their boat parked off Florida, hills of Vermont etc, party time is over.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Have to congratulate the govt for this move.

French have reneged on the Australian local content percentage, then cancel the contract.

Also I suspect the fact the French have basically reneged and the Australian  govt budget has taken a massive hit over the last 18mths, that govt is looking for a means to defer major spending. Certainly right now sending billions off-shore is not in the best interest of the economy.
This is the polar opposite of your position last year, you realise that don't you.

What changed?
No, I said the project should proceed provided the +50% Australian content is maintained and suspect the French will agree to the terms and conditions they agreed to with potentially some minor changes.

If the French now say its as low as 10% local content, then I say rip up the contract and re-issue the tender.

The option to proceed with an upgrade of the current sub's and defer the new subs if feasible then why not. Right now dumping billions OS is probably not the best for the economy. From a strategic point of view, I have no idea whether this is the right or wrong thing to do.
RTT_Rules
Well the money needs to be dumped in Australia right now especially - not in France. It wouldn't have made any substantial difference to Australia's local manufacturing capacity anyway.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Have to congratulate the govt for this move.

French have reneged on the Australian local content percentage, then cancel the contract.

Also I suspect the fact the French have basically reneged and the Australian  govt budget has taken a massive hit over the last 18mths, that govt is looking for a means to defer major spending. Certainly right now sending billions off-shore is not in the best interest of the economy.
This is the polar opposite of your position last year, you realise that don't you.

What changed?
No, I said the project should proceed provided the +50% Australian content is maintained and suspect the French will agree to the terms and conditions they agreed to with potentially some minor changes.

If the French now say its as low as 10% local content, then I say rip up the contract and re-issue the tender.

The option to proceed with an upgrade of the current sub's and defer the new subs if feasible then why not. Right now dumping billions OS is probably not the best for the economy. From a strategic point of view, I have no idea whether this is the right or wrong thing to do.
Well the money needs to be dumped in Australia right now especially - not in France. It wouldn't have made any substantial difference to Australia's local manufacturing capacity anyway.
don_dunstan
$50B, assume 50% local content based on price is $25B spent over 25 years or $1Bpa.

$1Bpa with an overhead recruitment cost of $150,000 per employee is 6500 direct employees with a 3:1 indirect factory is another 20,000 jobs for 25 years.

Interesting comment by you "substantial difference to Australia's local manufacturing capacity". I think many others may think otherwise.

However, what is likely to happen is that the upgrade of the Collins will cost around $400 - 600m?

From a strategic perspective is this ok? No idea.

From a Fed govt spending point of you. In the short term, only a small amount of this $50B will actually be diverted to other projects or simply not spent to avoid debt.

In 10 years time or more likely less as these so called upgrades of aging military hardware don't have a good history of achieving the desired outcome, its likely the $50B project will again be on the market and hopefully again the govt insists on at least 50% local content as they should do for most military hardware spending.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
...

In real terms my wages have fallen significantly over the past 10 years, despite negligible inflation. My employer has just received a 10-year rate reduction from our local government. My employer was not profitable half a dozen years ago, but now is. My employer has seen its employees become disloyal compared to a decade ago.
DirtyBallast
Wages at the business I work at have been flat-lining for years and they're really unlikely to budge thanks to the legislated superannuation increase coming through - yet another cost imposition that keeps going up amongst other things. As I've said before, we go head to head with imports and the added costs versus Asia are very real for us.

All the same I'm one of the lucky ones, I have a really pretty good job in Adelaide which is now the unemployment capital city bung-hole of Australia (again) reclaiming the title from Hobart and Perth over the last few years.

Personally I think the currency is artificially high and will tank in the next twelve months due to the Chinese government putting added pressure on our exports. It'll be painful but we might get some much needed change in the Aussie economy including labour shortages, inflation etc.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
...

In real terms my wages have fallen significantly over the past 10 years, despite negligible inflation. My employer has just received a 10-year rate reduction from our local government. My employer was not profitable half a dozen years ago, but now is. My employer has seen its employees become disloyal compared to a decade ago.
Wages at the business I work at have been flat-lining for years and they're really unlikely to budge thanks to the legislated superannuation increase coming through - yet another cost imposition that keeps going up amongst other things. As I've said before, we go head to head with imports and the added costs versus Asia are very real for us.

All the same I'm one of the lucky ones, I have a really pretty good job in Adelaide which is now the unemployment capital city bung-hole of Australia (again) reclaiming the title from Hobart and Perth over the last few years.

Personally I think the currency is artificially high and will tank in the next twelve months due to the Chinese government putting added pressure on our exports. It'll be painful but we might get some much needed change in the Aussie economy including labour shortages, inflation etc.
don_dunstan
You've been saying the $A has been too high for years and yet here we are. Predictions of a +80 - 85c range in H2 2021 by so called experts are unlikely to eventuate. Overall I think mid 70's is a fair number and where it will sit for the foreseeable future and the banks all now seem to support this revision.

China saying no to Australian Imports was in reality the best thing as we were becoming too dependent on one economy for our income. A wake up call if ever it was needed. Realistically Australia should be denying China new Iron ore, coal, gas and other mineral contracts until it stops playing games. They buy from us because we are cheaper and more reliable than alternatives and this won't change no matter how much they spend in Africa.

The closed borders is already driving labour shortages.

Inflation will come as expected globally following a global shortage in many products and services including oil, chips for cars, base metals etc that will take up to 3 years to clear.

Worth noting that in US, some airlines are now deploying back room staff to be CSO's as they laid off too many and they now have other jobs. While pilots are sitting at home waiting for flights, redundant cabin crew have moved on into different careers and new hires take months to properly train complicated by the fact that getting foreign workers into many countries is still an issue. Which makes recruiting multi lingual, attractive cabin crew with the right people skills all the more challenging.
  wobert Chief Commissioner
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
We are going to be in a world of pain, trying to get back to the 1950's is going to end up in the 1850's

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/scott-morrison-may-be-the-architect-of-a-carbon-tax-whether-he-likes-it-or-not

https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/should-we-pay-a-carbon-tax-to-our-own-government-or-to-someone-else-s-20210615-p5819q.html
wobert
CO2 tax, I thought this stupidity got voted out with Gillard Rudd.

8 years without a CO2 tax and the power sectors CO2/MW is nicely dropping and CO2/capita is also in decline.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
You've been saying the $A has been too high for years and yet here we are. Predictions of a +80 - 85c range in H2 2021 by so called experts are unlikely to eventuate. Overall I think mid 70's is a fair number and where it will sit for the foreseeable future and the banks all now seem to support this revision.

China saying no to Australian Imports was in reality the best thing as we were becoming too dependent on one economy for our income. A wake up call if ever it was needed. Realistically Australia should be denying China new Iron ore, coal, gas and other mineral contracts until it stops playing games. They buy from us because we are cheaper and more reliable than alternatives and this won't change no matter how much they spend in Africa.
RTT_Rules
We don't know if China saying no and blocking a lot of our exports is having any meaningful impact or not, common sense would say if we're not dragging in foreign exchange that the value of our dollar would tank - as you say yourself AU$ is still very high. But then again we're still selling LNG to the Japanese for one cent a litre until the value of all those export gas plants is written down - thanks to the wisdom of Julia Gillard. Once all the artificial constructs supporting the dollar are kicked away we might finally see a real value for it. Also AU$ the seventh most traded currency maybe that's another reason why its artificially high.

If the Chinese develop their own supply chain in Africa (Brazil seems incapable of getting its act together and is maybe too far away) then they'll replace us easily just like Gina Rinehart once foretold.

The closed borders is already driving labour shortages.
RTT_Rules
Nup. Not in my industry, not in my part of the world. If you mean 'labour shortages' as in backpacker prepared to work in hospitality in Sydney and Melbourne for $15 an hour or 'skilled' fruit pickers from the developing world who will work for the same then yes - there's a shortage of those kinds of people.

One of the most expensive countries on earth to live in this one; you're really desperate or a foreigner if you agree to those kind of wages.
Inflation will come as expected globally following a global shortage in many products and services including oil, chips for cars, base metals etc that will take up to 3 years to clear. Worth noting that in US, some airlines are now deploying back room staff to be CSO's as they laid off too many and they now have other jobs. While pilots are sitting at home waiting for flights, redundant cabin crew have moved on into different careers and new hires take months to properly train complicated by the fact that getting foreign workers into many countries is still an issue. Which makes recruiting multi lingual, attractive cabin crew with the right people skills all the more challenging.
RTT_Rules
Employers who abide by the law punished yet again in this country with a 2.5% increase in the minimum wage. But don't worry, new visas will rescue those industries with 'skills shortages'.

This joint is turning into Dubai - just import coolies and call the locals job snobs.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
You've been saying the $A has been too high for years and yet here we are. Predictions of a +80 - 85c range in H2 2021 by so called experts are unlikely to eventuate. Overall I think mid 70's is a fair number and where it will sit for the foreseeable future and the banks all now seem to support this revision.

China saying no to Australian Imports was in reality the best thing as we were becoming too dependent on one economy for our income. A wake up call if ever it was needed. Realistically Australia should be denying China new Iron ore, coal, gas and other mineral contracts until it stops playing games. They buy from us because we are cheaper and more reliable than alternatives and this won't change no matter how much they spend in Africa.
We don't know if China saying no and blocking a lot of our exports is having any meaningful impact or not, common sense would say if we're not dragging in foreign exchange that the value of our dollar would tank - as you say yourself AU$ is still very high. But then again we're still selling LNG to the Japanese for one cent a litre until the value of all those export gas plants is written down - thanks to the wisdom of Julia Gillard. Once all the artificial constructs supporting the dollar are kicked away we might finally see a real value for it. Also AU$ the seventh most traded currency maybe that's another reason why its artificially high.

If the Chinese develop their own supply chain in Africa (Brazil seems incapable of getting its act together and is maybe too far away) then they'll replace us easily just like Gina Rinehart once foretold.

The closed borders is already driving labour shortages.
Nup. Not in my industry, not in my part of the world. If you mean 'labour shortages' as in backpacker prepared to work in hospitality in Sydney and Melbourne for $15 an hour or 'skilled' fruit pickers from the developing world who will work for the same then yes - there's a shortage of those kinds of people.

One of the most expensive countries on earth to live in this one; you're really desperate or a foreigner if you agree to those kind of wages.
Inflation will come as expected globally following a global shortage in many products and services including oil, chips for cars, base metals etc that will take up to 3 years to clear. Worth noting that in US, some airlines are now deploying back room staff to be CSO's as they laid off too many and they now have other jobs. While pilots are sitting at home waiting for flights, redundant cabin crew have moved on into different careers and new hires take months to properly train complicated by the fact that getting foreign workers into many countries is still an issue. Which makes recruiting multi lingual, attractive cabin crew with the right people skills all the more challenging.
Employers who abide by the law punished yet again in this country with a 2.5% increase in the minimum wage. But don't worry, new visas will rescue those industries with 'skills shortages'.

This joint is turning into Dubai - just import coolies and call the locals job snobs.
don_dunstan
Africa has been an option for years, but the infrastructure etc etc is lacking and reserves often far inland. The longer shipping and railing costs are why there has been little progress.

Brazil is antipode of China, shipping costs too high and too many issues with productivity and corruption as well.

AUD is not high, its around where it should be.

There is a growing skilled/white collar labour shortage. Expat Aussies are moving home in droves and walking into jobs like never before. Gone is the parochial crap of the past that affected some industries for expat Aussies wishing to go home. People I know who moved back in last 5 years struggled to get a job, now having offers thrown at them. One friend two years to get a job. She recently resigned due to surgery that would take 8 weeks to get over. Every week, multiple phone calls. It used to be hard to get interviews when off-shore, but now not a problem.

Nothing like Dubai. Dubai population is 85% expat because there isn't even 1m nationals in the UAE with a current population of 10m in total, i.e. there isn't enough locals to do the work.

We all know many Australian's have been "job snobs" for decades. We have people sitting on their ar$e on govt hand outs in one location while jobs cannot be filled in another. Happened before I left school, after I left school and still today.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
What 'white collar job' shortage? We used to have something like 1.1 million people in this nation in some kind of post-secondary education - why would there be any reason to have any shortage whatsoever of 'white collar' people?

Meanwhile honest employers outside hospitality and agriculture get punished yet again with a 2.5% rise in minimum wages - on top of the increases in compulsory superannuation makes the cost of employing people in this country even higher. Rewards cash-in-hand and underpayment - great system isn't it.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
We are going to be in a world of pain, trying to get back to the 1950's is going to end up in the 1850's

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/scott-morrison-may-be-the-architect-of-a-carbon-tax-whether-he-likes-it-or-not

https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/should-we-pay-a-carbon-tax-to-our-own-government-or-to-someone-else-s-20210615-p5819q.html
wobert
CO2 tax, I thought this stupidity got voted out with Gillard Rudd.

8 years without a CO2 tax and the power sectors CO2/MW is nicely dropping and CO2/capita is also in decline.
"RTT_Rules"

Shane. After all these threads, you still spout "per capita" rubbish.

The planet does NOT give a rats about how many people. The issue has always been how much total smeg is in the air.

cheers
John
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
@RTT_Rules, re our discussion yesterday. I'm not interested in having a pissing comp about racing to the bottom, but merely pointing out that when times are tough for business, employees are more than happy to concede in order to keep the doors open,  but nowadays when times are good, the pendulum doesn't even swing back to neutral. Different through the complacency years early this century as you pointed out. My view is that the complacency shown by all comers near the end of the Howard era set many up for the fall that occurred a decade later. Life was obscenely good for me financially in 2003 too. Hindsight suggests that was a mistake.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.



Employers who abide by the law punished yet again in this country with a 2.5% increase in the minimum wage. But don't worry, new visas will rescue those industries with 'skills shortages'.
don_dunstan
I've got two genuine questions for you Don, but will ask them one at a time. Regarding the economy, do you believe in the theory of 'trickle down' economics?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

Shane. After all these threads, you still spout "per capita" rubbish.

The planet does NOT give a rats about how many people. The issue has always been how much total smeg is in the air.

cheers
John
justarider
Just because you and maybe a few others here don't understand the basic concept of CO2/capita doesn't mean its rubbish.

Based on your statement,
Then Australia doesn't need to do anything because the Chinese out weigh us in CO2 emissions what 100 fold + USA + EU + India, meh, why bother We are only 1.1%.

Reduce by 10% and its only global reduction of 0.1%, nothing. China (half the CO2/capita) but still 26% of global emissions, get them to cut 1%, its nearly 3 x as much.

The light will only come on when you press the switch.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
What 'white collar job' shortage? We used to have something like 1.1 million people in this nation in some kind of post-secondary education - why would there be any reason to have any shortage whatsoever of 'white collar' people?

Meanwhile honest employers outside hospitality and agriculture get punished yet again with a 2.5% rise in minimum wages - on top of the increases in compulsory superannuation makes the cost of employing people in this country even higher. Rewards cash-in-hand and underpayment - great system isn't it.
don_dunstan
Don, there is a large across the board while collar with skills shortage as indicated above.

As we have discussed recently. SUPER increase will come out of employees pockets in one way shape or form. Govt's may pretend to hide it for the public service but it will catch up.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
@RTT_Rules, re our discussion yesterday. I'm not interested in having a pissing comp about racing to the bottom, but merely pointing out that when times are tough for business, employees are more than happy to concede in order to keep the doors open,  but nowadays when times are good, the pendulum doesn't even swing back to neutral. Different through the complacency years early this century as you pointed out. My view is that the complacency shown by all comers near the end of the Howard era set many up for the fall that occurred a decade later. Life was obscenely good for me financially in 2003 too. Hindsight suggests that was a mistake.
DirtyBallast
Cannot blame the Howard error, that was during a period of boom. 2008 was the end of the first mining boom, there was a minor resurgence from 2010 to 2012 (note ALP were in power from 2008 to 2013). Might explain why you feel 2008 was the peak of your income.

Not interested in bottom of the barrel either, just stating reality.

Focusing on my industry, if the Australian aluminium owned by three multinationals is so profitable to fund this extra SUPER?  then why has there been no further expansion, only contraction in Australian Aluminium capacity since 2011 with last expansion in 1997? Usual catch cry is multi nationals have plenty of money make huge profits, they can afford it. Middle East has had many times total Australian capacity since.

Basic facts is that most companies operate between 10 - 20% Rate of return on investment. If its lower, the owners may as well save the head ache and invest on the stock market which is not hard to get 5 - 10%. If its above that rate of 10-20% for any period of time, then normally competition comes in.

My employer requires 15% ROR minimum for capital investment, we are currently targeting 40% min to improve our bottom line to get above 15% ROR for IPO.

If you employee costs rise, something normally has to give if revenue cannot off-set it. So since 1990, when SUPEr went from 0% to 10%, employee costs on SUPER alone has increased by 10% of your wage bill. If your wage bill is 1/3 of your costs, then that's 3.3% increase = 20% reduction in profits. Are we that naïve to think this was simply accepted by employers? Hopefully not, it was over time or in some cases straight away displaced from existing wages or future wage increases, but back then hiden by higher inflationary increases.

This is why more recently the govt has pushed back super increases as with no pay rises due to post mining boom softening employment market, there was no where to hide the exchange from salary to SUPER.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
@RTT_Rules, re our discussion yesterday. I'm not interested in having a pissing comp about racing to the bottom, but merely pointing out that when times are tough for business, employees are more than happy to concede in order to keep the doors open,  but nowadays when times are good, the pendulum doesn't even swing back to neutral. Different through the complacency years early this century as you pointed out. My view is that the complacency shown by all comers near the end of the Howard era set many up for the fall that occurred a decade later. Life was obscenely good for me financially in 2003 too. Hindsight suggests that was a mistake.
Might explain why you feel 2008 was the peak of your income.
RTT_Rules
You need new glasses.

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