The Aussie political economy -

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Nice

I don't think the country is over populated either (yet, but getting there) but it is very focused in a few locations and that the growth rate was too high for services to keep up and I do agree with Don's comment that past govts have tried to grow the country more evenly but never been successful. I know people who got their PR for say SA for which they are morally required to stay for 2y, then on arrival move to Vic usually for work.  The only lever the govt has to try and discourage is welfare.

Personally I'd like to see the growth held at 150,000 per year total growth after factoring in births, deaths, arrivals and departures  until 30m (estimated to take around ~23 years) then slowed to 100,000 per year until 35m (~50 years) at which point the immigration is simply balance against desparity between births and deaths. Also this time frame pushes us to the last Qtr of the 21st century and this is when the world's population will be in decline.
150,000 is too high. The immigration rate has been too high since the mid 90s.

Most of those people end up in Melbourne and Sydney and both cities are worse for it. Sydney is crammed and Melbourne is sprawling uncontrolled.

All we are doing is sustaining population Ponzi growth and supressing wages. Despite claims to the contrary Japan is doing fine with a declining population.
Mr. Lane
Agree immigration was too high, however I doubt we will return to such high levels again. UN projections also project the same. It actually peaked in 2009 as % of population and was declining since. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AUS/australia/net-migration

Australia's birth rate is currently 1.7, replacement is 2.1. By 2030 the UN projection is drop by another 20-25%. While births still exceed number of deaths, we know there is a cliff coming with the Boomers and within 15 -25 years this will flip and flip hard.

The net migration to 30 June 2020, was 194 k, in the early 2010's it was 200,000 to 300,000. So I think 150,000 pa net is fine and prefered over incentives to encourage people to breed in a over populated world. At 150,000 per year it will take 6 years to add just 1m from immigration, or a 4% increase in population over 6 years.  

Looking at the intrastate migration while the immigrants may want to move to Sydney and Melbourne, it would appear in recent years Australian's don't with these cities seeing a net loss in interstate migration, mostly to Qld. I also think with the rapid cultural change to inline working we will see more people head away from the cities, just look at the ridicuous house prices in many areas of regional Australia now. Cannot blame immigrants for that and this is what many have been pushing for for decades.

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  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

What a champion this fella is.

  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Please Victorian Liberals, please please pwitty pweaze elect Tim Smith aka Dim Tim, Donut Dick as leader. Then after the next State election you'll be able to fit in the same Corolla as the WA Libs. And give us a heap of comical entertainment.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Please Victorian Liberals, please please pwitty pweaze elect Tim Smith aka Dim Tim, Donut Dick as leader. Then after the next State election you'll be able to fit in the same Corolla as the WA Libs. And give us a heap of comical entertainment.
"wobert"
Hard lines; it's Matthew Guy. Who says the Libs don't recycle rubbish?
As Tony Wright wrote today, "Guy's most significant political achievement to date was to lose an election to Andrews by such a margin that the remaining Liberal MP's resemble an excursion from Yaapeet Primary School."
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
I'm devastated VG, Dim Tim Donut Dick Tim Smith  Shadow Minister for Pot Plants didn't get up.  Says a lot about the standard of education offered at Scotch College if he cant beat the Lobster Guy and whats is name.



Meanwhile Laura drops bucket  

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-06/nsw-gps-got-45-per-cent-of-pfizer-covid-vaccines-last-month/100380908
And its ongoing to Yule



Dan Andrews at his presser had a real go at this, and  released a few more facts about what  the PM of Sydney was hiding
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Premier Dan Andrews

Speaking at Tuesday’s daily press conference, Mr Andrews said the national cabinet’s agreement was “not a national plan to vaccinate Sydney”.
“I signed up to a national plan to vaccinate the country.
“Some don’t like to see this as a race. But a race, it surely is. What I didn’t know was that Premier Berejiklian is in a sprint, while the rest of us are supposed to do some sort of egg and spoon thing.”
Mr Andrews urged federal Health Minister Greg Hunt to front up and explain how he will fix the discrepancy, which he described as a “secret” and “under the table” arrangement.
“Only the Commonwealth government can fix it.”

He also reiterated that he had no problem with NSW receiving extra under the circumstances, if extra vax was available. As in the Polish lot and the extra from the UK. But to be taking allocated vaccine from the other states is not on.

The bloke showed true leadership and spoke for all Australians



That'll get a bite from the  usual right wing idolaters
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
With everyone working from home, the Internet is a total shambles around here. Many thanks to the Federal National Party for fighting so hard for their regional constituents. Bunch of flogs...
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Premier Dan Andrews

Speaking at Tuesday’s daily press conference, Mr Andrews said the national cabinet’s agreement was “not a national plan to vaccinate Sydney”.
“I signed up to a national plan to vaccinate the country.
“Some don’t like to see this as a race. But a race, it surely is. What I didn’t know was that Premier Berejiklian is in a sprint, while the rest of us are supposed to do some sort of egg and spoon thing.”
Mr Andrews urged federal Health Minister Greg Hunt to front up and explain how he will fix the discrepancy, which he described as a “secret” and “under the table” arrangement.
“Only the Commonwealth government can fix it.”

He also reiterated that he had no problem with NSW receiving extra under the circumstances, if extra vax was available. As in the Polish lot and the extra from the UK. But to be taking allocated vaccine from the other states is not on.

The bloke showed true leadership and spoke for all Australians



That'll get a bite from the  usual right wing idolaters
wobert
Morrison and Hunt is serious damage control.
  Heihachi_73 Chief Commissioner

Location: Terminating at Ringwood
No "control", Morrison and Hunt are serious damage.
  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
Speaking of throwing things out of the cot, the French have had a massive temper tizzy over the last few days (typical), over our latest Nuclear Subs deal, even though the cost of the French ones were continuing to balloon outwards,  (Thanks for nothing Turnbull), however, both sides of politics have said that they want these new subs built a lot quicker than the supposed date of 2040, former PM Rudd has said that it will leave us "strategically naked for 20 years, based on what I see to be the bungling of this new project" former PM Abbott agrees with him.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
The NDIS, flawed and uncosted from its very inception by the Gillard government, is expected to blow out to a $75 billion per year deficit by the end of the decade overtaking the entire Commonwealth spend on aged care and pensions - Financial Review;

The number of NDIS participants diagnosed as permanently or significantly disabled or having a developmental delay is on track to double to between 800,000 and 900,000 people by 2031-32, the Parliamentary Budget Office said in a new report.

The average payment per participant has been growing at 12 per cent a year to $54,000 annually, and the average cost will hit between $70,000 and $79,000 in a decade, as their “use of their planned budget tends to increase with time in the NDIS as they understand the scheme and services available”, the PBO said.

Overall, the annual cost to federal and state governments would be $59 billion by 2031-32 under a baseline scenario if spiralling costs are reined in, or $75 billion if spending blowout trends persist.

“The high scenario should not be interpreted as an upper bound for the projected cost of the scheme – given the uncertainties [and] costs could grow faster,” the PBO noted.



There's so many growing liabilities draining the Commonwealth purse its impossible to see how we can sustain our current standard of living without either serious cuts to services or huge tax increases - probably both. And the NDIS is ridiculously generous - basic support services in rural and remote areas are paid $55 p/h (although obviously the actual workers don't get that much).
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat Line
You've had a nice big whinge about it. Why haven't you provided a resolution to this confected problem Question

M.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
You've had a nice big whinge about it. Why haven't you provided a resolution to this confected problem Question

M.
The Vinelander
So the Parliamentary Budgetary Office 'confected' a problem just to make you angry did they?

Remove tax concessions for voluntary superannuation contributions - there's $35 billion in annual revenue right there.
  303gunner Train Controller

You've had a nice big whinge about it. Why haven't you provided a resolution to this confected problem Question

M.
Remove tax concessions for voluntary superannuation contributions - there's $35 billion in annual revenue right there.
don_dunstan
You're right, yet again!

Nobody should be allowed to make provision for their retirement. What greed and elitism! Evil or Very Mad They should quietly pay all their savings to the Government. It's not our money, it's the Government's Revenue we're holding back! The government will look after your money for you and it will be there when you need it in 20 years time, paid to you as a generous pension.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
You've had a nice big whinge about it. Why haven't you provided a resolution to this confected problem Question

M.
Remove tax concessions for voluntary superannuation contributions - there's $35 billion in annual revenue right there.
You're right, yet again!

Nobody should be allowed to make provision for their retirement. What greed and elitism! Evil or Very Mad They should quietly pay all their savings to the Government. It's not our money, it's the Government's Revenue we're holding back! The government will look after your money for you and it will be there when you need it in 20 years time, paid to you as a generous pension.
303gunner
As if to prove why this will never happen, someone comes along and screams about how it will affect them. The exact same thing happened when Labor threatened to take away dividend imputation from pensioners - wasn't a huge amount of money and it was technically a 'refund' on tax that wasn't paid. But the outcry from removing that free money was so enormous that they had to drop the policy.

Tax-free superannuation concessions are projected to overtake the cost of providing the aged pension within ten years - it's a really big chunk of tax not being collected, many tens of billions. Once upon a time people accepted the fact that they'd be poor when they retired - now-days the expectation is that you should have the same income in retirement as you did when you were working. I just don't see how that's going to be sustainable given the shrinking taxation base and the fact that we're living longer than ever.

Anyway - do you have ideas yourself for how all these programs can get paid for? Because in all seriousness, we need to find a collective solution for how programs like Medicare, Centrelink, NDIS, etc etc are going to be paid for going into the future - they're only getting more and more expensive.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat Line

Anyway - do you have ideas yourself for how all these programs can get paid for? Because in all seriousness, we need to find a collective solution for how programs like Medicare, Centrelink, NDIS, etc etc are going to be paid for going into the future - they're only getting more and more expensive.
don_dunstan

Yes, I'm happy to pay a higher level of tax or a compulsory levy to assist in covering the cost of running programs such as NDIS and Medicare.

M.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud

Anyway - do you have ideas yourself for how all these programs can get paid for? Because in all seriousness, we need to find a collective solution for how programs like Medicare, Centrelink, NDIS, etc etc are going to be paid for going into the future - they're only getting more and more expensive.
Yes, I'm happy to pay a higher level of tax or a compulsory levy to assist in covering the cost of running programs such as NDIS and Medicare.

M.
The Vinelander
Okay, thanks. But most people don't think that way (obviously).
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean

Anyway - do you have ideas yourself for how all these programs can get paid for? Because in all seriousness, we need to find a collective solution for how programs like Medicare, Centrelink, NDIS, etc etc are going to be paid for going into the future - they're only getting more and more expensive.
Yes, I'm happy to pay a higher level of tax or a compulsory levy to assist in covering the cost of running programs such as NDIS and Medicare.

M.Okay, thanks. But most people don't think that way (obviously).
don_dunstan
Nah,  it's only the people once described by your SA hero Alexander Downer as poo-er, like you. If only you'd jumped on the Hawke/Keating bandwagon you wouldn't still be poo-er now. Wink

I'm another who is not unhappy at paying taxes to fund decent programs. I paid almost $56k tax last FY and couldn't care less, because I obviously had plenty left over. Gave plenty to charity along the way too. I'm of the opinion that most people DO aspire to be more altruistic, i.e. they certainly think that way, but they just don't prioritise it.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat Line

Anyway - do you have ideas yourself for how all these programs can get paid for? Because in all seriousness, we need to find a collective solution for how programs like Medicare, Centrelink, NDIS, etc etc are going to be paid for going into the future - they're only getting more and more expensive.
Yes, I'm happy to pay a higher level of tax or a compulsory levy to assist in covering the cost of running programs such as NDIS and Medicare.

M.Okay, thanks. But most people don't think that way (obviously).
don_dunstan

Sorry...not sorry to disappoint. IMO we are taxed too low anyway and it's only the greed of an electorally powerful minority who live in marginal electorates that stops proper tax reform to enable important social programs to be funded properly so they can offer a more comprehensive service that can immediately step in when their services are required.

Mike.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Sorry...not sorry to disappoint. IMO we are taxed too low anyway and it's only the greed of an electorally powerful minority who live in marginal electorates that stops proper tax reform to enable important social programs to be funded properly so they can offer a more comprehensive service that can immediately step in when their services are required.

Mike.
The Vinelander
If that was true then the very tepid reforms to the taxation system proposed by Labor a few years back wouldn't have been torpedoed. You and DirtyBallast might be prepared to pay more tax to fund these programs but on the whole most people think like 303gunner.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Sorry...not sorry to disappoint. IMO we are taxed too low anyway and it's only the greed of an electorally powerful minority who live in marginal electorates that stops proper tax reform to enable important social programs to be funded properly so they can offer a more comprehensive service that can immediately step in when their services are required.

Mike.
If that was true then the very tepid reforms to the taxation system proposed by Labor a few years back wouldn't have been torpedoed. You and DirtyBallast might be prepared to pay more tax to fund these programs but on the whole most people think like 303gunner.
don_dunstan
Sorry Don, they were not at all tepid reforms. Joshie from accounting places them at 367 billion. And he has and will tell you repeatedly.
Personally, I voted for these changes, although it would have affected me adversely. A better country would be the result. Of course just opinion.
As it stands now, the ALP have every right to bang the debt and deficit disaster drum.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat Line
Sorry...not sorry to disappoint. IMO we are taxed too low anyway and it's only the greed of an electorally powerful minority who live in marginal electorates that stops proper tax reform to enable important social programs to be funded properly so they can offer a more comprehensive service that can immediately step in when their services are required.

Mike.
If that was true then the very tepid reforms to the taxation system proposed by Labor a few years back wouldn't have been torpedoed. You and DirtyBallast might be prepared to pay more tax to fund these programs but on the whole most people think like 303gunner.
Sorry Don, they were not at all tepid reforms. Joshie from accounting places them at 367 billion. And he has and will tell you repeatedly.
Personally, I voted for these changes, although it would have affected me adversely. A better country would be the result. Of course just opinion.
As it stands now, the ALP have every right to bang the debt and deficit disaster drum.
michaelgm

No offence 303 Gunner, you don't speak for me.

Moreover, Feb 2022 I could theoretically retire with my government super, topped up by the age pension, however I have no intention of retiring for a few years yet as I'd like to do more overseas travel at some point in the next few years and do some capital works on Vinelander Towers and perhaps restore another old Chrysler currently waiting in the garage.

Furthermore, I'm thinking I might look into a new EV, electric vehicle and the Chinese market via Great Wall is about to release affordable EV's on to the market around the end of this year.

But, if I purchase one what to do with an appreciating 17 years old, Works MINI Cooper S... Confused

Oh...and I actually, really like my job, so I have no pressing desire to retire at this stage.

Mike.
  303gunner Train Controller

You've had a nice big whinge about it. Why haven't you provided a resolution to this confected problem Question

M.
Remove tax concessions for voluntary superannuation contributions - there's $35 billion in annual revenue right there.
You're right, yet again!

Nobody should be allowed to make provision for their retirement. What greed and elitism! Evil or Very Mad They should quietly pay all their savings to the Government. It's not our money, it's the Government's Revenue we're holding back! The government will look after your money for you and it will be there when you need it in 20 years time, paid to you as a generous pension.
303gunner
Sorry, Don! Both your Sarcasm Meter and your Irony Meter must be broken if you read my reply to be support of your notions! Perhaps you didn't read anything past the first sentence? I cannot believe that most Australians seriously agree with what I wrote! Generous pension? What IS that?

And no offence taken, Vinelander. I didn't suggest that I spoke on your behalf, that was (as usual) Don putting words into people's mouths that they didn't say.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
You've had a nice big whinge about it. Why haven't you provided a resolution to this confected problem Question

M.
Remove tax concessions for voluntary superannuation contributions - there's $35 billion in annual revenue right there.
You're right, yet again!

Nobody should be allowed to make provision for their retirement. What greed and elitism! Evil or Very Mad They should quietly pay all their savings to the Government. It's not our money, it's the Government's Revenue we're holding back! The government will look after your money for you and it will be there when you need it in 20 years time, paid to you as a generous pension.
303gunner
How is this not some kinda sarcasm? And if its not - how am I supposed to know that you were serious.

There will be no 'generous pensions' by the time I retire, I'm pretty sure. If you want a glimpse of the future look to the United States when the various municipal pension funds are going broke. It simply isn't possible in this extremely low interest rate and low investment return environment to keep the funds growing so that they can get the returns necessary to keep the generous payouts going - they were predicated on a 'normal' interest rate and investment environment that simply doesn't exist any more.

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