The whole thing seems to be heading towards a stalemate IMO.
As for NATO - Turkey is not supporting Finland and Sweden's bids to join it. Interesting. Ironic too since Turkey is threatening a full invasion of North-East Syria and is mouthing off at Greece over several Aegean Sea islands.
Maybe it's time to boot Turkey out of NATO?
Turkey and Greece mouthing off is nothing new and dates back over 1000 years.
Invading Syria is not against NATO.
The conflict is slowing as Russia is running out of bullets and hardware, officer's being fired and/or resigning or basically not giving a crap. Even some troops are just leaving.
Putin's goal is now basically to save face, claim Donesk region and the land bridge to the Crimea, at which point he will then promote the goals of the "Special Military Operation" is complete and invite Ukraine to Peace talks, lets call it Minsk III.
Zelensky will likely be encouraged to accept the loss of another 20% of his country in return for peace and finacial support to rebuild the country.
What Putin is unlikely to be able to bring to the barginning table is a requirement that Ukraine does not join NATO, however they may try and insist on it and use it to bargin for return on captured Ukrainian citizens and military. My guess is we will likely have a timeframe for which they cannot join NATO and this timeframe will exceed Putin's expected lifespan.
Will this mean permanent peace in the captured areas? Unlikely.
My hope is that potentially Putin's sucessor see's some common sense and returns part of the territory in return for some other gains, but this is aspirational as we don't know who will replace Putin and Putin's death could actually trigger internal conflict in Russia as various people vie for power as Putin's potentially nominated sucessor is not considered to be strong, he's older and will likley not get support.
While Putin still has a large support base from the mostly uneducated, what he has done as further anailate those more intellegent who didn't support him before, increase their number and generate alot more reasons for someone to risk their life in an assination attempt. In a country of 144 m people, thats a big number to find just once person willing to die for the cause.