Russia vs. Ukraine - Potential War?

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2022 16:36
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
I do get the impression that Aaron is just a morbidly obese twenty-something guzzling KFC who wants us to believe he's important. Nothing he's ever said has ever presented the opposite view.

Hot and Spicy is on at KFC right now, Aaron - but you already knew that didn't you mate.
don_dunstan
I'd nail you down Don at mid 50's/60's in age, someone who never got told they were wrong (like a certain ex President)

I've seen this over multiple threads. YOU (and a couple of like minded others) cant handle being wrong about something to the point you change the argument multiple times wildly with baseless sources, a modern conservative tactic to try and control the narrative by spewing so much smeg out by the time it's fact checked you've moved onto another argument.

And you've finally hit the classic conservative deflection once they constantly loose an argument: Personal attacks.

This leads me to my favourite quote:

“If you run into an smeghead in the morning, you ran into an smeghead. If you run into smegheads all day, you're the smeghead.”
Somebody

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  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
I do get the impression that Aaron is just a morbidly obese twenty-something guzzling KFC who wants us to believe he's important. Nothing he's ever said has ever presented the opposite view.

Hot and Spicy is on at KFC right now, Aaron - but you already knew that didn't you mate.
I'd nail you down Don at mid 50's/60's in age, someone who never got told they were wrong (like a certain ex President)

I've seen this over multiple threads. YOU (and a couple of like minded others) cant handle being wrong about something to the point you change the argument multiple times wildly with baseless sources, a modern conservative tactic to try and control the narrative by spewing so much smeg out by the time it's fact checked you've moved onto another argument.

And you've finally hit the classic conservative deflection once they constantly loose an argument: Personal attacks.

This leads me to my favourite quote:

“If you run into an smeghead in the morning, you ran into an smeghead. If you run into smegheads all day, you're the smeghead.”
speedemon08
Yep, Don has lost this argument good and proper, the fact of the matter is, we should be standing up for Ukraine's rights, if that means sending them more weaponry, good!!.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
I'd nail you down Don at mid 50's/60's in age, someone who never got told they were wrong (like a certain ex President)

I've seen this over multiple threads. YOU (and a couple of like minded others) cant handle being wrong about something to the point you change the argument multiple times wildly with baseless sources, a modern conservative tactic to try and control the narrative by spewing so much smeg out by the time it's fact checked you've moved onto another argument.

And you've finally hit the classic conservative deflection once they constantly loose an argument: Personal attacks.
speedemon08
Yeah well I was being rude to Aaron when I wrote that and I regret getting that personal - but on the other hand read what Aaron has written about me over the last few pages and tell me if that was fair or not.

And my point about us needing to stay out of this war is correct; no good can come from having yet another "Coalition of the Willing" taking on yet another war so soon after losing our last one.
Yep, Don has lost this argument good and proper, the fact of the matter is, we should be standing up for Ukraine's rights, if that means sending them more weaponry, good!!.
Israilfan
It's just not a good idea for reasons that I've already explained.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has been given just three years to live by doctors, it’s claimed.
8502
Yeah I'm not sure if I believe these stories - I mean it's not impossible and it's true that Putin has been looking sick recently. But then Xi Jinping is supposed to have has some sort of minor aneurysm recently and I don't think I believe that either... propaganda? Wishful thinking?
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I have done more than you could ever do Don! Way more than you could ever do!
Pressing buttons on your X-Box is not "doing something", Aaron.
don_dunstan
Don't own one! Even if was all I had done, it would still be a greater contribution to society than you could come up with.


I do not do it to have a big deal made of it, here or anywhere else, so you'll just have to imagine what it is. What have you done besides kiss Putin's smeg from the opposite side of the World? Spreading pro Putin lies from Chinese and pro Putin media sources is not really a sacrifice of anything other than your credibility.
Again with the appeal to "I'm really important but I can't tell you why".

If you're so very important then why don't you tell us why you're so important, Aaron? Oh that's right - TOP SECRET.

What is it, Aaron - ASIO business? ASIS? CIA?

Go on - you can tell us. It's just us friends here on Railpage - we won't tell Russian or Chinese intelligence what an important cog in the wheel you are.
don_dunstan
Never said I was really important, YOU'RE the one that likes to overstate my importance.

You need to understand something about security, I don't think 'top secret' is a thing.

I don't work for the government you idiot, I have told you that literally countless times now.

What I have done to help Ukrainians is not secret, I am just not telling you, not because I am important, but because you're distinctly unimportant.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
You couldn’t document a SINGLE MEDIA SOURCE that called the Azov ‘Proto-Nazi’, certainly not a single source that knows what they’re talking about anyway.
Why don't these sources count?

Because they are Nazis: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment
- don_dunstan
You should stop reading Al Jazeera and instead read a quality newspaper with consistent, unbiased and accurate reporting and no political agendas, like say, The Guardian.

Compare and contrast this:

The Guardian, 10 September 2014

Azov fighters are Ukraine's greatest weapon and may be its greatest threat - The battalion's far-right volunteers' desire to 'bring the fight to Kiev' is a danger to post-conflict stability

I have nothing against Russian nationalists, or a great Russia," said Dmitry, as we sped through the dark Mariupol night in a pickup truck, a machine gunner positioned in the back. "But Putin's not even a Russian. Putin's a Jew."

Dmitry – which he said is not his real name – is a native of east Ukraine and a member of the Azov battalion, a volunteer grouping that has been doing much of the frontline fighting in Ukraine's war with pro-Russia separatists. The Azov, one of many volunteer brigades to fight alongside the Ukrainian army in the east of the country, has developed a reputation for fearlessness in battle.

But there is an increasing worry that while the Azov and other volunteer battalions might be Ukraine's most potent and reliable force on the battlefield against the separatists, they also pose the most serious threat to the Ukrainian government, and perhaps even the state, when the conflict in the east is over. The Azov causes particular concern due to the far right, even neo-Nazi, leanings of many of its members.

Dmitry claimed not to be a Nazi, but waxed lyrical about Adolf Hitler as a military leader, and believes the Holocaust never happened. Not everyone in the Azov battalion thinks like Dmitry, but after speaking with dozens of its fighters and embedding on several missions during the past week in and around the strategic port city of Mariupol, the Guardian found many of them to have disturbing political views, and almost all to be intent on "bringing the fight to Kiev" when the war in the east is over.
... to this:

The Guardian, 9 May 2022

‘Surrender is not an option’: Azov battalion commander in plea for help to escape Mariupol
Two thousand Ukrainian troops thought to be trapped inside steelworks after civilian evacuation

The Azov battalion has been central to Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine. Russia claims its members are neo-Nazis who are responsible for “Nazifying” Ukraine.

Azov fighters say its membership holds a range of political opinions. Azov formed as a volunteer battalion in 2014 to fight Russian-backed forces and some its leaders are known to hold far-right views. But since 2015, it has been part of the Ukrainian army and no longer attracts only far-right combatants.

Russian propaganda has long exaggerated the domestic influence of Azov in Ukraine as well as the scale of its membership.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has worked to transform the image of the fighters internationally and in Ukraine. Many now view them as heroes.
Sonofagunzel
You too? Again, read what Don wrote, not what you think he wrote, Proto-Nazi...
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I do get the impression that Aaron is just a morbidly obese twenty-something guzzling KFC who wants us to believe he's important. Nothing he's ever said has ever presented the opposite view.

Hot and Spicy is on at KFC right now, Aaron - but you already knew that didn't you mate.
don_dunstan
Do KFC even sell Hot and Spicy anymore?

Twenty something? I wish! My RP profile is eight years older than yours, I have mentioned here, probably recently that I lost interest in voting in elections pre 2007. EVERYTHING I present should give a person with a more than a two digit IQ the opposite view to yours.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Russian president Vladimir Putin has been given just three years to live by doctors, it’s claimed.

A growing number of unconfirmed reports alledge the 69-year-old president has cancer and that his health is deteriorating quickly.

And now an FSB officer has claimed Putin “has no more than two to three years to stay alive”, adding the Russian president has “a severe form of rapidly progressing cancer”.

Messages said to be from the unidentified Russian spy to FSB defector Boris Karpichkov also say Putin is losing his sight and suffering from headaches.

© Provided by The IndependentPutin is under the spotlight as the Ukraine war shows no sign of ending soon (Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

“We are told he is suffering from headaches and when he appears on TV he needs pieces of paper with everything written in huge letters to read what he’s going to say,” the Russian officer told the Sunday Mirror.

“They are so big each page can only hold a couple of sentences. His eyesight is seriously worsening.”

The spy added that Putin’s limbs are “now also shaking uncontrollably”.

Previous footage from earlier this year appeared to show his hand shaking, while as he also appeared to grip a table for support during a meeting broadcast in April.

Vladimir Putin ‘given three years to live’ and ‘is losing his eyesight due to illness’ spy claims (msn.com)
8502
What ever he has, if it is anything of interest at all, I hope it's slow and painful.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I'd nail you down Don at mid 50's/60's in age, someone who never got told they were wrong (like a certain ex President)

I've seen this over multiple threads. YOU (and a couple of like minded others) cant handle being wrong about something to the point you change the argument multiple times wildly with baseless sources, a modern conservative tactic to try and control the narrative by spewing so much smeg out by the time it's fact checked you've moved onto another argument.

And you've finally hit the classic conservative deflection once they constantly loose an argument: Personal attacks.
Yeah well I was being rude to Aaron when I wrote that and I regret getting that personal - but on the other hand read what Aaron has written about me over the last few pages and tell me if that was fair or not.
don_dunstan
Nawww, schnookums!
  Sonofagunzel Minister for Railways

Again, read what Don wrote, not what you think he wrote, Proto-Nazi...
Yeah, yeah, he made a mistake calling them Proto-Nazi and not Neo-Nazi.

It doesn't change the point, though.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Again, read what Don wrote, not what you think he wrote, Proto-Nazi...
Yeah, yeah, he made a mistake calling them Proto-Nazi and not Neo-Nazi.

It doesn't change the point, though.
Sonofagunzel
I meant what I said - 'proto-Nazi' being that they're a primitive form of the original. Did you see images of the Azov troops captured in Mariupol, many of them had full on Hitler tattoos. No denying they're fans of Nazism all right.

Meanwhile despite predictions of immanent collapse, Russian forces now control 20% of Ukraine and are showing no signs of retreat. Interesting article yesterday from The Guardian arguing that Putin is winning and the West must force Ukraine to make a deal:

The perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. Sooner or later, a deal must be made.

It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed...

...There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.

When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

That’s not to say the sanctions are pain-free for Russia. The International Monetary Fund estimates the economy will shrink by 8.5% this year as imports from the west collapse. Russia has stockpiles of goods essential to keep its economy going, but over time they will be used up.

But Europe is only gradually weaning itself off its dependency on Russian energy, and so an immediate financial crisis for Putin has been averted. The rouble – courtesy of capital controls and a healthy trade surplus – is strong. The Kremlin has time to find alternative sources of spare parts and components from countries willing to circumvent western sanctions...

...From the start, the Russian president has been playing a long game, waiting for the international coalition against him to fragment. The Kremlin thinks Russia’s threshold for economic pain is higher than the west’s, and it is probably right about that.

If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.

Biden told Putin that they would not provide more missles to Ukraine - and then promptly did exactly that. This is exactly what I've been warning about from the start - we don't need to escalate the war and the West needs to press for a negotiated end to it, not sponsor more fighting and death.

A negotiated settlement and a Minsk III peace agreement policed by European peace-makers is probably the best way out of this. Part of the problem with the first two Minsk agreements was an unwillingness of either side to recognise the terms of the agreement so someone will actually have to go in there and police it. To their credit France and Germany have been pressing both sides to negotiate so hopefully something will come of that soon.
  Sonofagunzel Minister for Railways

You know what you meant, I know what you meant, and he knows what you meant.

Aaron is splitting hairs in that "Proto-Nazi" might be technically limited to historical precursors of the Nazi Party.  

He's just being Aaron - the usual distraction/avoidance tactics when he's wrong.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
You know what you meant, I know what you meant, and he knows what you meant.

Aaron is splitting hairs in that "Proto-Nazi" might be technically limited to historical precursors of the Nazi Party.  

He's just being Aaron - the usual distraction/avoidance tactics when he's wrong.
Sonofagunzel
Don knows what he meant, but you don’t! He just told you again what he meant, and it’s not what you mean, and you’re still agreeing.
  Sonofagunzel Minister for Railways

He knows what he meant, I know what he meant, and you know what he meant.

What nobody knows is what you meant.

So tell us, what’s a Proto-Nazi, Aaron?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

A rough day for the Russians.  A top mercenary taken out near Kharkov, along with their two top ranking officers in Donetsk:
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/putins-notorious-mercenary-the-executioner-killed-by-ukrainian-sniper/news-story/a7aaa6f6a22990cad2a839414fa8ca74

Russia also wiped out one of the big grain terminals in Ukraine.  Apparently heaps of grain is being captured by the Russians and exported via Iran now...
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Went largely un-noticed by the mainstream but Biden quietly threw Zelenesky under a bus yesterday when he told the media that his repeated warnings that Russia would invade were ignored - ZeroHedge;

President Joe Biden on Friday told a donors conference in Los Angeles, California on the sidelines of the Summit of the Americas that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky brushed aside US warnings saying a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent. He described the situation ahead of the Feb.24 invasion and his communications with Zelensky, according to The Associated Press:

"Nothing like this has happened since World War II. I know a lot of people thought I was maybe exaggerating," Biden said, according to the outlet. He added the US had data that showed Russian President Vladimir Putin was going to invade.

"There was no doubt," Biden continued. "And Zelenskyy didn't want to hear it."

In his latest remarks, Biden admitted that the possibility of Putin launching a full-scale invasion may have seemed far-fetched at the time, acknowledging, "I understand why they didn’t want to hear it."...

...Washington can't exactly pretend it was all along taking the moral high ground while Biden is now throwing Zelensky under the bus. Essentially, the administration pushed Kiev to "stand up to Russia" - while publicly making empty promises that insiders knew would never be fulfilled. And still, the US and UK and particular are pushing a 'no compromise' approach that will only ensure a protracted conflict, and tragically more deaths. Or as Professor John Mearsheimer put it in a now famous 2015 address at the University of Chicago: "The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked."

The timing of Biden Friday's comments describing Zelensky as essentially 'brushing off' warnings are also notable given they come as there's increasing widespread acknowledgement for the first time that Ukraine is losing in the Donbas.

The narrative is shifting fast, and Zelensky may soon see his 'superstar' status in the West on the decline.

This war isn't going as well as the West had hoped is the conclusion - Russia is in no danger of falling over militarily or economically. In fact as predicted, India and China are helping them out by buying gas and oil from them, ignoring the call from the West for sanctions. Zelensky needs to get to the negotiating table with Putin because the unconditional support of the West appears to be waning - it'll be a good thing, the sooner this war ends the better.
  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
Went largely un-noticed by the mainstream but Biden quietly threw Zelenesky under a bus yesterday when he told the media that his repeated warnings that Russia would invade were ignored - ZeroHedge;

President Joe Biden on Friday told a donors conference in Los Angeles, California on the sidelines of the Summit of the Americas that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky brushed aside US warnings saying a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent. He described the situation ahead of the Feb.24 invasion and his communications with Zelensky, according to The Associated Press:

"Nothing like this has happened since World War II. I know a lot of people thought I was maybe exaggerating," Biden said, according to the outlet. He added the US had data that showed Russian President Vladimir Putin was going to invade.

"There was no doubt," Biden continued. "And Zelenskyy didn't want to hear it."

In his latest remarks, Biden admitted that the possibility of Putin launching a full-scale invasion may have seemed far-fetched at the time, acknowledging, "I understand why they didn’t want to hear it."...

...Washington can't exactly pretend it was all along taking the moral high ground while Biden is now throwing Zelensky under the bus. Essentially, the administration pushed Kiev to "stand up to Russia" - while publicly making empty promises that insiders knew would never be fulfilled. And still, the US and UK and particular are pushing a 'no compromise' approach that will only ensure a protracted conflict, and tragically more deaths. Or as Professor John Mearsheimer put it in a now famous 2015 address at the University of Chicago: "The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked."

The timing of Biden Friday's comments describing Zelensky as essentially 'brushing off' warnings are also notable given they come as there's increasing widespread acknowledgement for the first time that Ukraine is losing in the Donbas.

The narrative is shifting fast, and Zelensky may soon see his 'superstar' status in the West on the decline.

This war isn't going as well as the West had hoped is the conclusion - Russia is in no danger of falling over militarily or economically. In fact as predicted, India and China are helping them out by buying gas and oil from them, ignoring the call from the West for sanctions. Zelensky needs to get to the negotiating table with Putin because the unconditional support of the West appears to be waning - it'll be a good thing, the sooner this war ends the better.
don_dunstan
The war ending is up to Putin, not Zelensky.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
Yes, as Don says, Biden is running a tight ship here, he's a sneaky operator, and doing the best for U.S.A. is the heart of his operation. Zelensky better be careful. I agree with Don, Biden is clever and inscrutable. Watch out!
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Not exactly "war" news as such, but a really interesting artefact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict has been McDonald's restaurants have made an astonishing own-goal over their hurried sale of their business in Russia to one of their biggest franchise holders has cost them over a billion dollars in annual revenues - News.com.au;

McDonald’s Russian restaurants had accounted for around nine per cent of the US group’s turnover.

Three days after the company announced its exit in May, Russian businessman Alexander Govor, who had been a licensee of the chain, bought the 850-restaurant operation.

“I am ambitious and I don’t only plan to open the 850 restaurants but to develop new ones,” Govor said on Sunday.

Under the sale conditions, Govor agreed to retain employees for at least two years and fund liabilities to suppliers, landlords and utilities, McDonald’s said.

The price of the transaction was not disclosed but in announcing its exit, McDonald’s said it planned to take a one-time charge of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion to write off the investment.

They had to remove certain items from the menu because the name was connected to McDonalds (such as McFlurry and Big Mac) but otherwise the menu remains the same only re-branded to "Delicious, full-stop" which apparently in Russian looks like a 'big M' when abbreviated - coincidence much! I guess McDonald's loss is someone else's gain, hey - but losing nine percent of your chain in one hit is bad news for the parent corporation in anyone's language.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Mexico's Lopez-Obrador slams the US involvement in the Ukraine war - without actually mentioning them in person. Associated Press;

Mexico’s president slammed NATO’s policy on the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Monday, calling it “immoral.”

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s did not mention NATO or the United States by name, but his comments were the latest example of his party’s ambiguous stance on the invasion.

Mexico has voted to condemn the invasion, but refused to join in sanctions on Russia.

López Obrador said Monday that the allies’ policy was equivalent to saying “I’ll supply the weapons, and you supply the dead. It is immoral.”

“How easy it is to say, ’Here, I’ll send you this much money for weapons,” Lopez Obrador said. “Couldn’t the war in Ukraine have been avoided? Of course it could.”
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The whole thing seems to be heading towards a stalemate IMO.

As for NATO - Turkey is not supporting Finland and Sweden's bids to join it.  Interesting.  Ironic too since Turkey is threatening a full invasion of North-East Syria and is mouthing off at Greece over several Aegean Sea islands.

Maybe it's time to boot Turkey out of NATO?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Hmmm...
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Putin gave a speech this week in which he broadly attacked the West, the European Union and the USA saying that he was ready to normalise trade realtions (particularly in gas and fertiliser) with "people who understand what's going to happen". ZeroHedge;

The Russian president criticized the European Union over the decision to impose anti-Russia sanctions, calling it "crazy" and "not well thought out". Putin said that their goal was to crush the Russian economy in one go, but that they have failed to achieve this.

Instead, EU politicians delivered a serious blow to their own economies, prompting high inflation, the president stressed. He estimated the costs of the "sanctions fever" to be around $400 billion this year alone and noted that the measures will become a burden on regular people's shoulders.

"It is clear why they waged this propaganda campaign, what all these spells about 200-to-1 ruble-dollar exchange rates and claims that our economy would collapse were all about. All this was - and remains - a tool in the information warfare, an attempt to put psychological pressure on Russian society," he continued, stressing further that "some global currencies are committing suicide".

On the EU, he said: "The European Union has completely lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else’s tune, accepting whatever they are told from above, causing harm to their own population and their own economy."

The speech essentially declared that despite the West attempting to hammer the Russian economy and bring it to its knees, the efforts have failed spectacularly and is blowing back on the West, according to Putin's words.

As I predicted earlier in this thread, Putin has had a lot of help from nations that refused to sanction them - specifically India and China. In fact India has been refining the oil it buys off Russia and selling it to Asia so the sanctions actually benefited Russia by pumping the oil price higher.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The whole thing seems to be heading towards a stalemate IMO.

As for NATO - Turkey is not supporting Finland and Sweden's bids to join it.  Interesting.  Ironic too since Turkey is threatening a full invasion of North-East Syria and is mouthing off at Greece over several Aegean Sea islands.

Maybe it's time to boot Turkey out of NATO?
Carnot
Turkey and Greece mouthing off is nothing new and dates back over 1000 years.

Invading Syria is not against NATO.

The conflict is slowing as Russia is running out of bullets and hardware, officer's being fired and/or resigning or basically not giving a crap. Even some troops are just leaving.

Putin's goal is now basically to save face, claim Donesk region and the land bridge to the Crimea, at which point he will then promote the goals of the "Special Military Operation" is complete and invite Ukraine to Peace talks, lets call it Minsk III.

Zelensky will likely be encouraged to accept the loss of another 20% of his country in return for peace and finacial support to rebuild the country.

What Putin is unlikely to be able to bring to the barginning table is a requirement that Ukraine does not join NATO, however they may try and insist on it and use it to bargin for return on captured Ukrainian citizens and military. My guess is we will likely have a timeframe for which they cannot join NATO and this timeframe will exceed Putin's expected lifespan.

Will this mean permanent peace in the captured areas? Unlikely.

My hope is that potentially Putin's sucessor see's some common sense and returns part of the territory in return for some other gains, but this is aspirational as we don't know who will replace Putin and Putin's death could actually trigger internal conflict in Russia as various people vie for power as Putin's potentially nominated sucessor is not considered to be strong, he's older and will likley not get support.

While Putin still has a large support base from the mostly uneducated, what he has done as further anailate those more intellegent who didn't support him before, increase their number and generate alot more reasons for someone to risk their life in an assination attempt. In a country of 144 m people, thats a big number to find just once person willing to die for the cause.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
So you're saying babies want to assassinate Putin? Worse that Don's Putinophile rubbish.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Belt and Road, cough....

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