Renewable energy thread 2022

 
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
You asked a question, I gave you a detailed answer.
What else do you want?
RTT_Rules
You did not give an answer to the question I was asking. And you did that on purpose because you don't know the answer.

Just say "I don't know the answer to that question" and leave it at that. Anything less is just gutless obfuscation of the kind we get from the "green" movement every single day.

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  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
And the problem with your "coal is too expensive" and "let's buy more renewables" thesis is that we've already been spending much more on renewables than other countries and NOT spending enough on coal and gas which are needed to back up the very occasionally-working windmills and solar panels:



The problem will be simply solved by reserving a portion of coal and gas for domestic use only and building high-efficiency power plants across the country to put redundancy in our dangerously unreliable and expensive power system which is becoming way too dependent on unreliables.
don_dunstan
What do you expect from this post? A medal for when the posting the dumbest of dumb arsed statistics?
Who comes up with this $hit and more to the point, why do you waste your life reading it?

1min on OPENEM and you can see by the bid price what produces the cheapest power.

Solar $ 240/MWh
Wind $ 382
Brown coal $ 398 (read the coal not influenced by export prices)
Black coal $ 425

Another 5min and you will see price to the global gas and coal shortages SA had equal lowest power prices. Blind Freddy and his blind dog you can see the issue is driven by high global gas and coal prices, not RE.  Infact more RE would lead to lower prices. Its not rocket science.

No one will build a coal fired power plant as the cost is simply too high, the returns not enough and the almost imposibility of actually getting finance. Why? Becasue no one invests in out dated technology? Go to the banks and try and borrow money to restart the Pony Express and see how far you get.

And then there is the issue of who will provide the coal power technology, the Chinese? We cry when they buy a small multi purpose port in Darwin, we stop them bidding on mobile phone infrastruture. But a few coal power stations, yeah go for it! How dumb is that!
  Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: In exile
You asked a question, I gave you a detailed answer.
What else do you want?
You did not give an answer to the question I was asking. And you did that on purpose because you don't know the answer.

Just say "I don't know the answer to that question" and leave it at that. Anything less is just gutless obfuscation of the kind we get from the "green" movement don_dunstan every single day.
don_dunstan
Corrected.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
1min on OPENEM and you can see by the bid price what produces the cheapest power.

Solar $ 240/MWh
Wind $ 382
Brown coal $ 398 (read the coal not influenced by export prices)
Black coal $ 425
RTT_Rules
Take away the subsidies - direct and indirect - and then we can talk.

And I was asking you what it would cost for Australia to build eight times more solar panels and wind farms than we have now and you still can't answer.

Again, don't get angry at me - get angry at the fact that there's no estimated cost for Australia going to net zero because they don't want to frighten the people with how much it will cost.

Don't answer me unless you have a figure for how much it will cost us to go to net zero.
Corrected.
Graham4405
You have nothing whatsoever to contribute to this discussion so all you have is an insult. Well done.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Solar $ 240/MWh
Wind $ 382
RTT_Rules
Solar is not operating in South Australia right now - and wind isn't really contributing any meaningful amounts either, only 7% of our total demand right now. There's not enough wind - not nearly enough - to power our state.

So yet again, good old fossil fuels come to the rescue to keep the lights on for 93% of our power needs in South Australia as I write. We'd be in blackout conditions if it weren't for coal, gas and diesel power (yes, we have had to switch the diesel generators burning imported fuel on tonight yet again).

Just give it up, we cannot run this country on the dreamy fantasies that you have about wind and sun powering our nation. They can't and it will never happen.
  Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: In exile
You have nothing whatsoever to contribute to this discussion so all you have is an insult. Well done.
don_dunstan
Just an observation. Thank you.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Banned
Graham, welcome to the group of us who have been ticked off by the Comptroller-General of Insults.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
1min on OPENEM and you can see by the bid price what produces the cheapest power.

Solar $ 240/MWh
Wind $ 382
Brown coal $ 398 (read the coal not influenced by export prices)
Black coal $ 425
Take away the subsidies - direct and indirect - and then we can talk.

And I was asking you what it would cost for Australia to build eight times more solar panels and wind farms than we have now and you still can't answer.

Again, don't get angry at me - get angry at the fact that there's no estimated cost for Australia going to net zero because they don't want to frighten the people with how much it will cost.

Don't answer me unless you have a figure for how much it will cost us to go to net zero.
Corrected.
My contribution to this discussion is an insult.
don_dunstan
As myself and others have told you a few times now. Conspriacy theories work until you step out of your narrow box. As I said in that post you can look up the cost of full lifecycle cost of electricty from a number of websites using the LCOE costs which are external of subsidises. So don't ask questions or make statements for which you have already been given answers to.

FYI
The Dubai Solar farm wholesale price which was built as a BOO project and there is no subsidy.
The winning tariff of USD 1.6953 cents/kWh establishes a new global benchmark for Solar Energy.

This is $24/MWh in Australian terms

Again Don, you don't solve 2050 vision/target with 2020 technology, otherwise it would be the 2020 plan. 2050 Net Zero is a goal to work towards.

What it seems Don is that every time you ask for something, I give the answer, you don't like it so you claim the answer isn't right or then you want more and now starting to ask ridicoulous questions like asking what the cost of 2050 will be. No one knows what the cost of coal, oil or gas will be in 2050. Hell by 2050, Fusion might be commericalised or anti matter reactors for all we know.

The problems of today and tomorrow are
#1 Dealing with the current spike in global O&G prices and its not just gas and coal that is hurting us, but liquid fuels are doing as much damage as we spend more on liquid hydrocarbons than coal or gas.

#2 How to we manage the replacement of the coal power stations due to close in the next 5 years, these need immediate actions or action should already be in place using off the shelf technology.

For power stations forcast to close from 5 - 10 years away, solutions need to be close to being finalised and looking at both current technology and its forecast future changes including price and what technology is on the verge of commericalisation.

Its not rocket science Don.

  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Oh looky.
Is this case closed to most of your argument Don?

https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2022/Rio-Tinto-calls-for-proposals-for-large-scale-wind-and-solar-power-in-Queensland

MELBOURNE, Australia--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Rio Tinto has called for proposals to develop large-scale wind and solar power in Central and Southern Queensland to power its aluminium assets, help meet its climate change ambitions and further encourage renewable development and industry in the region.

The approach, which is through a formal market Request for Proposals (RFP), is intended to support the development of multiple new wind and solar power projects that can, in parallel with firming solutions, start supplying power to Rio Tinto’s Gladstone assets through the Queensland grid by 2030.

Rio Tinto Aluminium Chief Executive Ivan Vella said “As Queensland’s largest energy user, we have an important role to play in driving the development of competitive renewable energy sources for our Gladstone assets and supporting the State’s renewable energy targets.

“It is early in the process, but this is an important step towards meeting both our Group climate change target of halving our emissions by the end of the decade and our commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.”

Rio Tinto is seeking proposals that can competitively meet the energy needs of its three production assets in the Gladstone region: the Boyne smelter, the Yarwun alumina refinery and the Queensland Alumina refinery.

These assets require 1140MW of reliable power to operate, which equates to at least 4000MW of quality wind or solar power with firming.

The RFP follows Rio Tinto’s October 2021 strengthening of its climate commitments, including a target to halve Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2030 (from a 2018 baseline) and the pursuit of renewable power options for its Australian aluminium smelters.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
As myself and others have told you a few times now. Conspriacy theories work until you step out of your narrow box. As I said in that post you can look up the cost of full lifecycle cost of electricty from a number of websites using the LCOE costs which are external of subsidises. So don't ask questions or make statements for which you have already been given answers to.
RTT_Rules
You don't answer my question - yet again - and this time you throw in some gas-lighting as if to try and cover for the fact that you don't have anything at all.

For someone who pretends to be an expert on all things renewable in Australia, when it comes to the actual cost of installing the future capacity that we're supposed to install - as I said another eight times what we've already spent - you obfuscate and dive off on a tangent hoping that I won't notice you can't answer.

As I said earlier - if you can't answer then just say "I can't answer". Don't gas-light, don't wander off on a foreign tangent - just say "I can't answer".
Just an observation. Thank you.
Graham4405
These are really deadly serious questions for the future of our nation - how much will the kind of transition to Net Zero 2050 actually cost us? Will we even be able to afford it?

What if the answer is a trillion dollars? Not out of the question given that we've been told upgrading the grid to cope with more renewables is going to be a hundred billion. Where does the money come from given our government are already a trillion dollars in the hole thanks to COVID19.

Don't these questions worry you?
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Oh looky.
Is this case closed to most of your argument Don?
RTT_Rules

This has nothing whatsoever to do with what we were discussing.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
As myself and others have told you a few times now. Conspriacy theories work until you step out of your narrow box. As I said in that post you can look up the cost of full lifecycle cost of electricty from a number of websites using the LCOE costs which are external of subsidises. So don't ask questions or make statements for which you have already been given answers to.
You don't answer my question - yet again - and this time you throw in some gas-lighting as if to try and cover for the fact that you don't have anything at all.

For someone who pretends to be an expert on all things renewable in Australia, when it comes to the actual cost of installing the future capacity that we're supposed to install - as I said another eight times what we've already spent - you obfuscate and dive off on a tangent hoping that I won't notice you can't answer.

As I said earlier - if you can't answer then just say "I can't answer". Don't gas-light, don't wander off on a foreign tangent - just say "I can't answer".
Just an observation. Thank you.
These are really deadly serious questions for the future of our nation - how much will the kind of transition to Net Zero 2050 actually cost us? Will we even be able to afford it?

What if the answer is a trillion dollars? Not out of the question given that we've been told upgrading the grid to cope with more renewables is going to be a hundred billion. Where does the money come from given our government are already a trillion dollars in the hole thanks to COVID19.

Don't these questions worry you?
don_dunstan
What is your question Don?

Well I seem to know more about what is going in SA power than you do Don!

Yes Don its affordable and well within the lifecyle cost of a new coal power station.

What Trillion dollar Don, HELLO this is Australia, not USA Don.

Will there be $100B additional spent on the grid? How. The HV grid (everything at or over 132 kV) as it exists today didn't got $100B. However like the existing infrastructure the HV costs are not funded by the govt, rather by the operators who then collect revenue.

No Don, I'm not worried as I don't consider these fancy numbers to be real.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Oh looky.
Is this case closed to most of your argument Don?

This has nothing whatsoever to do with what we were discussing.
don_dunstan
It has everything to do what we are talking. Private sector with a baseload demand looking for RE replacement of its coal fired electricty source from the private sector.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Oh looky.
Is this case closed to most of your argument Don?

This has nothing whatsoever to do with what we were discussing.
It has everything to do what we are talking. Private sector with a baseload demand looking for RE replacement of its coal fired electricty source from the private sector.
RTT_Rules
Not once in that article do they mention the taxpayer dollars that Rio Tinto will be harvesting from their construction of that solar plant - nor do they mention the actual cost of the plant either.

You consistently dodge questions about the cost to the people of Australia and the dollar figures attached to these projects because you simply don't know. As I've pointed out to you time and time again, these big companies make investments in this kind of infrastructure because they're being paid to do it - not because of some wonderful outstanding ideas of community service or because they think fossil fuels have had their day. They're doing it because various schemes provide money for them to harvest and they want that money for themselves.

If you took away the extremely generous subsidies they wouldn't be interested.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
What is your question Don?

Well I seem to know more about what is going in SA power than you do Don!

Yes Don its affordable and well within the lifecyle cost of a new coal power station.

What Trillion dollar Don, HELLO this is Australia, not USA Don.

Will there be $100B additional spent on the grid? How. The HV grid (everything at or over 132 kV) as it exists today didn't got $100B. However like the existing infrastructure the HV costs are not funded by the govt, rather by the operators who then collect revenue.

No Don, I'm not worried as I don't consider these fancy numbers to be real.
RTT_Rules
Of course they're real - and they'll be passed on directly to consumers. Sky;

Economist Andrew Stone says power companies “are not charities” and costs have to be passed on and “paid by someone”.

Labor has released a plan called ‘Rewiring the Nation’ which involves upgrading the electricity grid to incorporate renewable energy sources and driving down power prices.

“If you’re asking power companies to spend around $60 billion on changes to the grid, upgrades to the grid to be able to handle all of this renewable energy … that has to be passed on,” Mr Stone told Sky News host Peta Credlin.

“That was a large part, along with the carbon tax, of why electricity prices doubled under the last Labor government, so I’m surprised they are wading into this area again in such a fashion.”

The total figure bandied around by the Greens in 2020 was $100,000,000,000 to upgrade the HV network to be compatible with renewable energy - so sixty billion is probably just the start. And consumers will directly pay for this one way or another, either through increased taxes or through increased electricity bills. This is at a time when the cost of reliable baseload power is going through the roof because of the refusal to invest in new gas or coal plants.

But people like you think the Australian people are just a bottomless pit of money - right? You really have a penchant for socialist schemes where Aussie taxpayer and power consumer money is giving directly to needy multinationals like Rio Tinto and Qantas - why?

And please check your grammar - "didn't got" ain't proper English.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Of course they're real - and they'll be passed on directly to consumers. Sky;

Economist Andrew Stone says power companies “are not charities” and costs have to be passed on and “paid by someone”.

Labor has released a plan called ‘Rewiring the Nation’ which involves upgrading the electricity grid to incorporate renewable energy sources and driving down power prices.

“If you’re asking power companies to spend around $60 billion on changes to the grid, upgrades to the grid to be able to handle all of this renewable energy … that has to be passed on,” Mr Stone told Sky News host Peta Credlin.

“That was a large part, along with the carbon tax, of why electricity prices doubled under the last Labor government, so I’m surprised they are wading into this area again in such a fashion.”

The total figure bandied around by the Greens in 2020 was $100,000,000,000 to upgrade the HV network to be compatible with renewable energy - so sixty billion is probably just the start. And consumers will directly pay for this one way or another, either through increased taxes or through increased electricity bills. This is at a time when the cost of reliable baseload power is going through the roof because of the refusal to invest in new gas or coal plants.

But people like you think the Australian people are just a bottomless pit of money - right? You really have a penchant for socialist schemes where Aussie taxpayer and power consumer money is giving directly to needy multinationals like Rio Tinto and Qantas - why?

And please check your grammar - "didn't got" ain't proper English.
don_dunstan
You broke a record for the dumbest post.

That $60B is the total investment over 20 years in Qld of which only 17% or $9B is to be spent on the grid.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Copperstring2.0potentialchart.jpg

Of the $9B investment in the grid, $1.7B is the Mt Isa to Townsville connection with a BCR of 4.54.

As we discussed before, over the next 20 years over half of Qld Generation capacity will need replacing, this alone if coal would be around $20-30B. From that $60B, $35B is budgeted for generation replacement, however the operating costs of this new generation is mostly a fraction of the existing capacity.

Time to end the dumb posts Don.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Oh looky.
Is this case closed to most of your argument Don?

This has nothing whatsoever to do with what we were discussing.
It has everything to do what we are talking. Private sector with a baseload demand looking for RE replacement of its coal fired electricty source from the private sector.
Not once in that article do they mention the taxpayer dollars that Rio Tinto will be harvesting from their construction of that solar plant - nor do they mention the actual cost of the plant either.

You consistently dodge questions about the cost to the people of Australia and the dollar figures attached to these projects because you simply don't know. As I've pointed out to you time and time again, these big companies make investments in this kind of infrastructure because they're being paid to do it - not because of some wonderful outstanding ideas of community service or because they think fossil fuels have had their day. They're doing it because various schemes provide money for them to harvest and they want that money for themselves.

If you took away the extremely generous subsidies they wouldn't be interested.
don_dunstan
What is your evidence they will? SO you just making smeg up as you go now.

You have never provided any evidence to suggest that is actually true in recent times. I've provided evidence of actual costs were I know there are no subsidies and its done through open tender.

No questions were dodged Don, you just cannot handle the truth.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2020/01/21/renewable-energy-prices-hit-record-lows-how-can-utilities-benefit-from-unstoppable-solar-and-wind/?sh=125770d72c84

LCOE 2020 numbers

LCOE analysis, unsubsidized wind power and utility-scale solar come in at lower price ranges than any other analyzed resource including gas, coal, and nuclear. Unsubsidized wind ranges from $28–$54 per megawatt hour (MWh), and unsubsidized utility-scale solar ranges from $32–$42/MWh

From USA EIA website
Table 1b. Estimated unweighted levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for new resources entering service in 2027 (2021 dollars per megawatthour)

Total system LCOE, with tax credit ie subsidy


Despatchable
Ultra Super critical coal $83/MW
CCGT $40
Adv Nuc $88

Limited by resource
Wind onshore $40
Solar $36

Reserve/peak/storage
OCGT $117
Battery $128

Goes to show, again gas is half the cost of coal, far more flexible, cheaper and faster to construct, far more flexible and we wonder why in the USA no one has built a coal power station in over 17 years. Why on earth would we follow the stupidity of building out dated power generation infrastruture?

Wind and Solar provide similar or cheaper prices to CCGT, basically build and from then on not reliant on others for your energy fuel source.

For peaking, low wind/solar, the obvious of using OCGT and/or battery, as we do now + diesel. We also have an existing hydro network to provide up to 10GW of on demand energy and can absorb around 3-4 GW of excess energy for another day.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
What is your evidence they will? SO you just making smeg up as you go now.

You have never provided any evidence to suggest that is actually true in recent times. I've provided evidence of actual costs were I know there are no subsidies and its done through open tender.

No questions were dodged Don, you just cannot handle the truth.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2020/01/21/renewable-energy-prices-hit-record-lows-how-can-utilities-benefit-from-unstoppable-solar-and-wind/?sh=125770d72c84

LCOE 2020 numbers

LCOE analysis, unsubsidized wind power and utility-scale solar come in at lower price ranges than any other analyzed resource including gas, coal, and nuclear. Unsubsidized wind ranges from $28–$54 per megawatt hour (MWh), and unsubsidized utility-scale solar ranges from $32–$42/MWh

From USA EIA website
Table 1b. Estimated unweighted levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for new resources entering service in 2027 (2021 dollars per megawatthour)

Total system LCOE, with tax credit ie subsidy


Despatchable
Ultra Super critical coal $83/MW
CCGT $40
Adv Nuc $88

Limited by resource
Wind onshore $40
Solar $36

Reserve/peak/storage
OCGT $117
Battery $128

Goes to show, again gas is half the cost of coal, far more flexible, cheaper and faster to construct, far more flexible and we wonder why in the USA no one has built a coal power station in over 17 years. Why on earth would we follow the stupidity of building out dated power generation infrastruture?

Wind and Solar provide similar or cheaper prices to CCGT, basically build and from then on not reliant on others for your energy fuel source.

For peaking, low wind/solar, the obvious of using OCGT and/or battery, as we do now + diesel. We also have an existing hydro network to provide up to 10GW of on demand energy and can absorb around 3-4 GW of excess energy for another day.
RTT_Rules
Again with diesel, which is the most carbon spewing source of electricity there is. And why do we have to have diesel in the system? Because renewables regularly don't show up for work - and it doesn't matter how theroretcially cheap these things are because they still need to be backed up by gas, diesel and coal or there will be blackouts.

I'm not interested if the supposedly low cost of a solar plant in UAE that only provides power for a few hours during the day (and even then only when it isn't cloudy) - I want to know the capital cost of going to 50% renewable in this country and you never, ever answer. You can't even answer simple questions about how the future power structure will work like what is the cost of keeping gas, diesel and coal on stand-by for when renewables don't show up for work?

If you don't know the answer then say "I don't know", please stop pretending that you've answered the question on the cost of going to 50% or 100% renewables because you don't know the answer.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The electricity generators are gaming the network to push up prices and maximise their profits at the expense of everyone else.

Cough.... Nationalize it ....Cough

  Graham4405 The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: In exile
The electricity generators are gaming the network to push up prices and maximise their profits at the expense of everyone else.
Carnot
Well imagine that! A business trying to maximise their profits, who would've thought?
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
The electricity generators are gaming the network to push up prices and maximise their profits at the expense of everyone else.

Cough.... Nationalize it ....Cough
Carnot
Nationalising something that used to be a State responsibility and then got privatised?

Very interesting Klink.......
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
The electricity generators are gaming the network to push up prices and maximise their profits at the expense of everyone else.
Well imagine that! A business trying to maximise their profits, who would've thought?
Graham4405
The French owners of our gas power plants here in SA were accused of price gouging by leaving them off-line at times of low wind a few years back - they get better prices if they turn it on at the last minute.

DUH, it's a market as you say. If we don't want it being run that way then we have to nationalise it.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Goes to show, again gas is half the cost of coal, far more flexible, cheaper and faster to construct, far more flexible and we wonder why in the USA no one has built a coal power station in over 17 years. Why on earth would we follow the stupidity of building out dated power generation infrastruture?
RTT_Rules
If coal is so stupid then why is everyone building coal-fired power plants - I mean even Japan is doing it.

  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Goes to show, again gas is half the cost of coal, far more flexible, cheaper and faster to construct, far more flexible and we wonder why in the USA no one has built a coal power station in over 17 years. Why on earth would we follow the stupidity of building out dated power generation infrastruture?
If coal is so stupid then why is everyone building coal-fired power plants - I mean even Japan is doing it.

don_dunstan
Starting with, I’m all for cleaner energy. The current regulatory framework is clearly not up to snuff. If the planned closure of Liddell and Eraring go ahead, I see a clusterfark of epic proportions. See other thread for uncertainty for investment. And the privatisation experience, well…..
Oz is the biggest exporter of coal in the world yet, we won’t burn it here.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

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