Imminent power blackouts on the east coast

 
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Talking of the ABC, a good article here on Qld's woes. They should've built more renewables:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-15/qld-avoid-blackouts-aemo-energy-security/101151282

This evening in Vic might get sketchy if the winds drop. I don't think they will, looking at the weather forecast.

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  Carnot Minister for Railways

Talking of the ABC, a good article here on Qld's woes. They should've built more renewables:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-15/qld-avoid-blackouts-aemo-energy-security/101151282

This evening in Vic might get sketchy if the winds drop. I don't think they will, looking at the weather forecast.
  8502 Assistant Commissioner

Current Gas distribution network



Does the state of WA have an LNG shortage also?

If not then time for some bulk LNG trains from the west?
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Why are some generators turned off?

Because the AEMO has set a fixed price cap for consumers at $300 a megawatt hour, some generators have withdrawn supply from the market.

Green Energy Markets director of analysis, Tristan Edis, said the $300 a megawatt hour figure is below the cost of fuel for many gas power plants.

"They've said they don't want to supply electricity because this price is not enough to cover our costs and so they've withdrawn their supply," Mr Edis said.

"They're effectively switching off … or saying: 'I'm not available to generate'.

"It's like someone saying – I want to give you a job but I want you to go 2,000 kilometres away and I want you to drive or fly at your own expense and I'm not going to compensate you for the cost of all this travel.

"It is possible for AEMO to force them online but then they have to compensate them to recover their real costs," he said.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Vic is currently propping up NSW with its wind power.  Even at the same time that the hopelessly unreliable Yallourn coal-fired power station in Vic lost 2 of its 4 generators.

LNG transported from WA wouldn't be practical without the right docking infrastructure (port or rail).  Not an overnight job.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Vic is currently propping up NSW with its wind power.  Even at the same time that the hopelessly unreliable Yallourn coal-fired power station in Vic lost 2 of its 4 generators.

LNG transported from WA wouldn't be practical without the right docking infrastructure (port or rail).  Not an overnight job.
Carnot
Also SA wind is currently propping up NSW.

FWIW,  both NSW and QLD are madly using the excess to push water uphill. Renewables to the rescue, who would've thunk.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Why are some generators turned off?

Because the AEMO has set a fixed price cap for consumers at $300 a megawatt hour, some generators have withdrawn supply from the market.

Green Energy Markets director of analysis, Tristan Edis, said the $300 a megawatt hour figure is below the cost of fuel for many gas power plants.

"They've said they don't want to supply electricity because this price is not enough to cover our costs and so they've withdrawn their supply," Mr Edis said.

"They're effectively switching off … or saying: 'I'm not available to generate'.

"It's like someone saying – I want to give you a job but I want you to go 2,000 kilometres away and I want you to drive or fly at your own expense and I'm not going to compensate you for the cost of all this travel.

"It is possible for AEMO to force them online but then they have to compensate them to recover their real costs," he said.

bevans
These are private companies that are compelled to make a profit - asking them to generate power when gas and coal is so expensive is forcing them to lose money, so they're idling their equipment rather than lose money. It's actually their right to do that.

This disaster has been decades in the making and both sides of politics are equally responsible. As I said in the renewables thread, the only way the Commonwealth can solve this situation is to completely ban the export of coal and gas (as they did recently in Indonesia) until they can sort out a long-term solution, probably a domestic gas and coal reservation.

But they won't do anything of the sort because they don't want to risk their board positions and lobbying jobs post-politics. There's no way Labor will put the Australian people before the interests of the multinationals ripping us off - anyone who thought this government was going to be in any way different from the LNP is about to have their eyes opened...
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
These are private companies that are compelled to make a profit - asking them to generate power when gas and coal is so expensive is forcing them to lose money, so they're idling their equipment rather than lose money. It's actually their right to do that.

This disaster has been decades in the making and both sides of politics are equally responsible.
As I said in the renewables thread, the only way the Commonwealth can solve this situation is to completely ban the export of coal and gas (as they did recently in Indonesia) until they can sort out a long-term solution, probably a domestic gas and coal reservation.

But they won't do anything of the sort because they don't want to risk their board positions and lobbying jobs post-politics. There's no way Labor will put the Australian people before the interests of the multinationals ripping us off - anyone who thought this government was going to be in any way different from the LNP is about to have their eyes opened...
don_dunstan
I agree with the bits in bold but not the rest. Look at WA. You don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater and ban exports you simply need to reserve a portion of the dirty stuff for domestic use

If that isn't possible then AEMO needs to send a very strong signal to the market that they will compensate generators for any genuine losses they incur (plus pay them a small profit) if they sell into the market at above the price ceiling

That will be VERY expensive though and in the end we will all pay for it one way or another

As you say This disaster has been decades in the making and both sides of politics are equally responsible

Now they need to get on with fixing it ASAP because what we have ATM is simply not working for Australia's citizens nor our long term future as a nation

And bloody well STOP trying to points-score off each other by blaming the other side (federal and state). No one cares whose fault it is when the lights go out.......
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat Line
Is this an attempt at a warped sense of humour QuestionSmile

I click on this thread under the 'Lounge' Heading and get a Railpage Outage advice.Cool

Mike.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
I agree with the bits in bold but not the rest. Look at WA. You don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater and ban exports you simply need to reserve a portion of the dirty stuff for domestic use
BrentonGolding
They're not going to do either. It was Martin Ferguson as Energy Minister in the Gillard government who decided to squib on any national gas reservations (WA went out on their own) - so Labor made the original decision that got us where we are now.

And in all seriousness, how is Albo going to fulfil his goal to "make things here again" when we remain the most expensive place on the face of the earth in terms of energy, taxation and wages?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

AEMO suspends the Spot Market:


https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/emergency-management/guide-to-market-suspension-in-the-nem

So now the energy users (us basically) might have to compensate generators.

The system is rigged and the private generators have a gun to our heads.  Nationalize it.  
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
 Nationalize it.  
Carnot
You do know who is the largest owner of generating capacity in Australia, ie the Qld govt!

You do know the highest prices in Australia even after AEMO stepped in is Qld!

You do know the whole sale market was established when most of the assets in Vic and NSW were still with the state.

You do know the state of Tasmania is also one of the largest generating capacity owners.

You do know in Sth Aust market where nearly all generating capacity is privately owned has the lowest wholesale price, followed by Vic.

What will nationalisation achieve?
Where would the money come from (all the states apart from WA have red budgets)?
What would be the price?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

 Nationalize it.  
You do know who is the largest owner of generating capacity in Australia, ie the Qld govt!

You do know the highest prices in Australia even after AEMO stepped in is Qld!

You do know the whole sale market was established when most of the assets in Vic and NSW were still with the state.

You do know the state of Tasmania is also one of the largest generating capacity owners.

You do know in Sth Aust market where nearly all generating capacity is privately owned has the lowest wholesale price, followed by Vic.

What will nationalisation achieve?
Where would the money come from (all the states apart from WA have red budgets)?
What would be the price?
RTT_Rules
What do you propose instead of nationalisation, which seems to be a popular solution going by what many are suggesting...
  8502 Assistant Commissioner

There is something completely broken with the system.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
 Nationalize it.  
You do know who is the largest owner of generating capacity in Australia, ie the Qld govt!

You do know the highest prices in Australia even after AEMO stepped in is Qld!

You do know the whole sale market was established when most of the assets in Vic and NSW were still with the state.

You do know the state of Tasmania is also one of the largest generating capacity owners.

You do know in Sth Aust market where nearly all generating capacity is privately owned has the lowest wholesale price, followed by Vic.

What will nationalisation achieve?
Where would the money come from (all the states apart from WA have red budgets)?
What would be the price?
What do you propose instead of nationalisation, which seems to be a popular solution going by what many are suggesting...
Carnot
Well clearly nationalisation won't solve a problem when its State owned assets that are profiteering the most.

The primary cause of this is global gas and coal prices for which most of the gas and part of the coal generation is exposed.

1) One of the few things I agree with Don is that its time for a gas reserve for domestic use as gas power is required to increase RE and phase out coal.

2) A coal reserve is more difficult, most power stations are already on capitive mines others buy from the market and pick and choose their coal, but there are also other users of coal. Hence do mines near those users suffer profit loss while others do not, gas is all piped together, coal is exported from 4 locations. Potentially exporters contribute to a rebate scheme for domestic demand.

3) If there are energy providers holding back capacity to maximise return then, they need to be fined. We went through this a few years back and I thought the rules were changed, if not sufficently, then change them. Also if they are holding back capacity because of the high cost of coal/gas and contracts that would cause potential bankruptcy, then this need to trigger the use of commonwealth emergency powers which can direct exporters to ensure supply. ie no ship gets loaded if a turbine is being shutdown due to lack of supply, regardless of location. The coal mines and gas shippers will fix this PTQ if they stopped from loading at their cost.

4) Reduce the max power price on the market from the aburb $15k to $3k.

5) Introduce a weight max price that after a period of days or weeks where power price is over X then action is triggered.

6) Contrinue the path to move to RE, which ensuring the regulation is well structured.

7) A public enquiry into why the Qld ALP Govt continually profitters off both their own state's population and business and that across the border during exceptional events?
  8502 Assistant Commissioner

Australia really is just one big profiteering junket my governments and protected industries.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Australia really is just one big profiteering junket my governments and protected industries.
8502
Australia is at present, a quarry a farm and a cafe, little else.

The fact that a gas lead covid recovery is spruked without a national reservation is an absurd position.
And back to where and with who it began.
https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/how-australia-blew-its-future-gas-supplies-20170928-gyqg0f.html
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
Don't have to worry about a gas led solution in Victoria.  We are phasing out gas.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat Line
Don't have to worry about a gas led solution in Victoria.  We are phasing out gas.
Donald

Unlikely for around 10 years...so don't hold your breath...but I wouldn't buy a new Rinnai or a Vulcan space heater in a hurry. Smile

M.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Don't have to worry about a gas led solution in Victoria.  We are phasing out gas.

Unlikely for around 10 years...so don't hold your breath...but I wouldn't buy a new Rinnai or a Vulcan space heater in a hurry. Smile

M.
The Vinelander
probably closer to 20-30 years, but right now I'd be looking for something you can take charge of yourself. I can make or subsitute electrons from the grid with solar on my roof and potentially a wind generator if I live in a suitable location, I cannot do that as easily with gas, although in rural India they generate cooking gas in farm houses from animal waste. Regardless its a bit more work and probably not enough for heating.

Personally I will not live somewhere I cannot have combustion heater and I'll grow my own wood.

Alternatively or additionally, move someone warm, my preference.
  ANR Chief Commissioner

Don't have to worry about a gas led solution in Victoria.  We are phasing out gas.

Unlikely for around 10 years...so don't hold your breath...but I wouldn't buy a new Rinnai or a Vulcan space heater in a hurry. Smile

M.
A Rinnai space heater (like an Avenger 25) can crank a lot of warmth in a large space in a matter of minutes. The only problem with it is that it must be connected to a 240v electrical power source in order to run the control panel and the safety cut off features. It is more likely not to operate because of blackouts rather than running out of gas. There are also LPG versions I think. So if Vic shuts the natural gas valves, LPG bottles could be trucked in from interstate.

I would start looking into a cast iron wood burning stove(s) or a wood burning fireplace or an outdoor fire pit if I lived in Vic.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Personally I will not live somewhere I cannot have combustion heater and I'll grow my own wood.
RTT_Rules
And whose fault is it that heating by gas or electricity has become so bloody expensive in temperate areas?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Personally I will not live somewhere I cannot have combustion heater and I'll grow my own wood.
And whose fault is it that heating by gas or electricity has become so bloody expensive in temperate areas?
don_dunstan
Yours, you moved or stayed there, I moved to Qld. Ice belongs in my freezer (obviously not yours as the door is open all the time), not my front yard.

EDIT:
Victoria is still 60% brown muck call you southerners insult geninue coal by calling it coal. The rest is mostly RE and some gas. So there is clearly no local reason for high prices.

Sth Aus is still the lowest or one of the lowest prcies with most of its power being RE which is half the price of gas of late.

Tas, little change, mostly hydro, gettng off gas and replacing with more wind.

However you are all connected to the black coal states and hence, poo rolls down hill.

So maybe you can blame Qld with the highest prices funding the Qld govt owned coal power stations.

EDIT2:
You can also blame Putin for being a dick-head starting a fight he thought he could win with realisng how incompetent his military really is and now an embarressment on the world stage resulting in EU, USa and others refusing to buy his gas straining existing supply chains. However within two years Putin will be lucky to sell any gas as import terminals and major upgrades to export countries is completed.

So the simple solution, move north to avoid the need for heating, install solar to run your AC.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Yours, you moved or stayed there, I moved to Qld. Ice belongs in my freezer (obviously not yours as the door is open all the time), not my front yard.
RTT_Rules
I love my home, it's the perfect balance between "rat race" and "bumpkin". You wish you could live somewhere as nice as this instead of your backwards rat-hole in the desert.
Sth Aus is still the lowest or one of the lowest prcies with most of its power being RE which is half the price of gas of late.
RTT_Rules
Stop the delusion - we still have the highest retail prices for power in the country according to Canstar.

Where do you get the idea that we have the cheapest, the propaganda about windmills making cheap power again? Another thing you don't have a clue about because you don't live here.
You can also blame Putin for being a dick-head starting a fight he thought he could win...
RTT_Rules
Our electricity and gas prices in Australia have nothing whatsoever to do with Europe and everything to do with our own government's stupid policy settings and the greedy multinationals ripping us off.

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