Forthcoming State Election and public transport

 
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
62440: More than a weekend but it shouldn't take an huge amount of time with gauge convertible sleepers already there; think back to the 1995 conversion of the Adelaide-Melbourne line, that didn't take more than a month from memory. I think the original coast-to-coast announced that Outer Harbour and Grange trains would also share the tracks with dual-voltage trams that would through-run to Semaphore and West Lakes; the idea was dependent on gauge-conversion of the train network and that didn't eventuate so you'd have to guess that if they did convert the line now it would be exclusively for trams.

David Peters: I think that one variation of that plan was for Semaphore trams to break with the line and do street running Commerical st/Vincent St then rejoin the line near Ethelton station before going on to Semaphore. So it would have been back to the 1930's for the Port with trams AND trains... interesting.

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  justapassenger Minister for Railways

IF as predicted, the Greens would preference Labor, and Xenophon would preference the Liberals I think. That would give both the ALP-Green coalition & Liberal-Xenophon 5 seats each. Would that be correct?

IF SA does fall to the Libs, that would make all states Liberal, and one of the first things they would support is a rise in the GST, as all states have got to agree.
"Newcastle Express"

1. There were 11 seats up for grabs, and at this point it is looking like Labor-Greens 5 (4 Labor, 1 Greens), Liberal-FF 5 (4 Liberal, 1 FF) and one Independent (John Darley).

2. The Independent Nick Xenophon Team candidates such as John Darley are true independents and not Liberal lapdogs, which can be verified by looking at their above-the-line group tickets.
They had two tickets lodged with 50% of their above-the-line votes going either way, both had the top positions 3-9 filled by three groups advocating strong social policy and definitely not a right-wing approach. One of their tickets had the Liberal-aligned groups at positions 10-37 and the Labor-aligned groups at 38-53, while the other had the Labor-aligned groups at 10-34 and the Liberal-aligned groups at 49-53. If you look at the ABC Leg Council analysis and scroll to the bottom you'll see that Xenophon preferences elected one candidate each from the Liberal-FF bloc and the Labor bloc.

3. Ever since his election on the No Pokies platform in 1997, a large proportion of Nick Xenophon's supporters have always voted below the line to choose their own preferences rather than voting above the line to use the group tickets. What happens with the preferences of Xenophon below-the-line voters is always very much a mixed bag, due to his strong support across people from traditional Labor backgrounds, traditional Liberal backgrounds and long-term swinging voters.

4. I wouldn't see a GST raise as being a bad thing, although I thought that was more of an ALP policy while the Liberals are all about cutting taxes and cutting "privatising" services. Australia is a nation with a very small population, we should be looking to places like Sweden and Norway with their high taxes and strong services. For our politicians to emulate the irresponsible tax cut rhetoric of US politicians would be disastrous - they have states and cities so bankrupt they can't afford to collect rubbish and turn on streetlights, let alone have nice things.
  Newcastle Express Chief Commissioner

According to ABC News, their is another 260,000 postal & absentee votes to be counted.

The news said that the Liberals won the majority of the votes, but not the majority of seats - at this stage.

I'd like to know how can you have a "team" of independents? If they form a team, they aren't really independents, are they?
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Why does the rail need to be moved inward?

Was any consideration given to regauging from BG to SG for the southern project ?
freightgate

Our trains are BG, our trams are SG without a rail moving there is some incompatibility there.
  kipioneer Chief Commissioner

Location: Aberfoyle Park
I think we can be reasonably sure that the 3 lane part of Flagstaff Road will get an extra lane; beyond that is anyone's guess!
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

According to ABC News, their is another 260,000 postal & absentee votes to be counted.
"Newcastle Express"
Postal/early/absent/declaration votes rarely make a significant difference in SA, the proportions are usually within ±1% of the votes cast on the day.

The news said that the Liberals won the majority of the votes, but not the majority of seats - at this stage.
"Newcastle Express"
The statewide count in SA is always distorted by the long-time SA Labor strategy of not bothering with safe Liberal seats, putting up candidates who are so hopeless that even the rusted on party faithful wouldn't bother getting out of bed without compulsory voting. In Waite they put up a girl from out of the area whose photo made her look so young you'd have been forgiven for thinking she needed her mum's permission to run for election and in Davenport they had another young woman who is "Currently a student at Flinders University" - that was her candidate profile, quoted in full!

It looks extremely improbable that either party will get 24 seats, with the two independents holding two of the safest seats in the state with 2010 two candidate preferred margins of 16.6% for Bob Such (currently sitting on 20.6%) and 6.7% for Geoff Brock (currently sitting on 15.8%).

If the two independents elected to the House of Assembly want to abide by the will of the people, they will support the Liberal party to form a minority government and support them in votes of confidence, but evaluate all other bills on their merit. That the Liberal/Labor vote is split 35/18 in Fisher and 37/11 in Frome is a pretty clear indication of who the people of those independently represented districts want in government.
I'd like to know how can you have a "team" of independents? If they form a team, they aren't really independents, are they?
"Newcastle Express"
They are not affiliated with any party, that makes them independents in my book. Being grouped together on the ballot paper doesn't turn them into a party, it's just about giving them a fighting chance of taking on the major parties.

It would be preferable if the Legislative Council ballot papers did not have party groupings at all and the candidates were all randomly sorted with their party affiliation or independent endorsement printed underneath their name, and preferences became optional after 11 boxes were numbered.
  Pressman Spirit of the Vine

Location: Wherever the Tin Chook or Qantas takes me
Interesting to hear on TV late news that Tony Abbot is "Putting Pressure on the two Independants to support the Liberals"
So the 'outside' interference begins.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

I think we can be reasonably sure that the 3 lane part of Flagstaff Road will get an extra lane; beyond that is anyone's guess!
"kipioneer"
Bull$hit, the $6 million the Libs want to throw that way wouldn't cover even a fifth of the cost of doing it. Neither party would let it get past a feasibility study which would inevitably find it would not be a good idea with the budget in such a poor position.

Regardless of who gets in, it shouldn't be built at all because it already works - and that's why Bob Such himself was against the idea. You could get a lot of driver education programs (teaching people about things like contraflow lanes, merging, safe overtaking etc) and re-testing for renewed licenses for the $30 million that would actually cost.
Interesting to hear on TV late news that Tony Abbot is "Putting Pressure on the two Independants to support the Liberals"
So the 'outside' interference begins.
"Pressman"
In the case of Bob Such that's not going to go well for Tony. He should have asked John Olsen and Dean Brown how well that went last time it was tried.

Our trains are BG, our trams are SG without a rail moving there is some incompatibility there.
"Aaron"
And then there's the issue of the rail profile, currently it is optimised for trains rather than tram wheels designed for street running.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
In the case of Bob Such that's not going to go well for Tony. He should have asked John Olsen and Dean Brown how well that went last time it was tried.
justapassenger

Bob Such was on ABC radio earlier today and he said "I'm very non-partisan, I'll look at both sides - I'll take into account second preferences." before then going on to tell the assembled media that he was quite upset by (what he considered to be) a personal smear campaign that the Liberals ran against him in his own seat. He also said he couldn't stomach a 'slash and burn' agenda and I think that statement in particular was fairly clearly targeted at the Liberals - I think he was telegraphing that he didn't like them and couldn't work with them. This week will show us what he's actually thinking.

If it really does come down to the independents then it's going to depend on who is the best negotiator.

We had a hung parliament here in Victoria; Jeff Kennett in 1999 proved that he had no idea how to compromise and Steve Bracks ran rings around him to eventually form a government with the help of independents after a by-election for a deceased MP tipped the balance in Labor's favour. Likewise I think that Tony Abbott's demands after the 2010 election that Windsor and Oakeshott had no option but to support him started to sound threatening at one stage and I think it actually cost him government on that occasion.

Tony should have learned from that you can't tell independents what they should do... because they'll probably do the opposite.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
If Bob Such gets what Bob Such wants... Then I see SA being the state of no speed cameras, he is, in no way, their biggest fan! - and that is not a bad thing.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Bob Such was on ABC radio earlier today and he said "I'm very non-partisan, I'll look at both sides - I'll take into account second preferences." before then going on to tell the assembled media that he was quite upset by (what he considered to be) a personal smear campaign that the Liberals ran against him in his own seat. He also said he couldn't stomach a 'slash and burn' agenda and I think that statement in particular was fairly clearly targeted at the Liberals - I think he was telegraphing that he didn't like them and couldn't work with them. This week will show us what he's actually thinking.

If it really does come down to the independents then it's going to depend on who is the best negotiator.

We had a hung parliament here in Victoria; Jeff Kennett in 1999 proved that he had no idea how to compromise and Steve Bracks ran rings around him to eventually form a government with the help of independents after a by-election for a deceased MP tipped the balance in Labor's favour. Likewise I think that Tony Abbott's demands after the 2010 election that Windsor and Oakeshott had no option but to support him started to sound threatening at one stage and I think it actually cost him government on that occasion.

Tony should have learned from that you can't tell independents what they should do... because they'll probably do the opposite.
"don_dunstan"
My reference to Olsen and Brown was about the previous hung parliament here from 2002-06 - they had burned Bob Such when he was the Liberals' education minister and then parachuted in a big noter ex-federal MP from outside the district against him for the '02 election - he resigned from the party, sat out the remainder of the term as an independent and then comfortably defended his seat as an independent. The Liberals acted like they were home and hosed with all three independents in their pocket, but in reality they failed to win the support of even one and refused to give in gracefully, the premier refusing to resign his commission until defeated in a vote on the floor of the House of Assembly. Within two years, even the one Nationals MP was helping shore up the Labor government.
  kipioneer Chief Commissioner

Location: Aberfoyle Park
Bull$hit, the $6 million the Libs want to throw that way wouldn't cover even a fifth of the cost of doing it. Neither party would let it get past a feasibility study which would inevitably find it would not be a good idea with the budget in such a poor position.

Regardless of who gets in, it shouldn't be built at all because it already works - and that's why Bob Such himself was against the idea. You could get a lot of driver education programs (teaching people about things like contraflow lanes, merging, safe overtaking etc) and re-testing for renewed licenses for the $30 million that would actually cost.
justapassenger

You have something about Aberfoyle Park:  when I, as a new resident, I observe a different bus service would work better you said that the people in Aberfoyle Park didn't deserve a better bus service, and by implication I was as bad as those in Aberfoyle Park who couldn't cope with an indirect service.

You obviously don't read the local papers, nor did you get the better than daily campaign letters from the Liberal Party, nor do you apparently know that, since I have been here, for just over 2 years, that Bob Such has been campaigning for both an improved bus service along the lines I suggested in that post, and for the expansion of Flagstaff Road.

Because of the Liberal Party campaigning Bob Such actually called for 4 lanes on Flagstaff Road in his campaign.

Personally I have no problem with Flagstaff Road as it is, but I do note that there is actually plenty of room to expand it to the north.  Most, if not all of the land is in government hands.    Neither does the work need to be completed quickly so the costs can be kept down, the major complication seems to me to be the need to shift the power line.
  2001 The Snow Lord

Location: The road jump at Charlotte Pass. Paxman Valenta on two planks.
Wonder how Mike Rann is feeling now ...
  Pressman Spirit of the Vine

Location: Wherever the Tin Chook or Qantas takes me
Wonder how Mike Rann is feeling now ...
"2001"


Would he even care?
  Newcastle Express Chief Commissioner

Wonder how Mike Rann is feeling now ...
2001

He probably rann away!

But Fisher I think is a former Liberal, but he's angry at the Liberals for some reason.
  fabricator Chief Commissioner

Location: Gawler
My reference to Olsen and Brown was about the previous hung parliament here from 2002-06 - they had burned Bob Such when he was the Liberals' education minister and then parachuted in a big noter ex-federal MP from outside the district against him for the '02 election - he resigned from the party, sat out the remainder of the term as an independent and then comfortably defended his seat as an independent.
justapassenger

Yeah, and for this year.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-17/south-australia-election-independents-having-more-talks-about-w/5324964
Dr Such says he cannot understand the strategy the Liberals used for their 2014 campaigning.
He says Mr Brock has told him the Liberals spent about $400,000 in Frome alone campaigning against him.
Dr Such says they no doubt spent heavily against him too in the Adelaide electorate of Fisher but he had been too busy campaigning to give that much attention.
He says he has been told other Liberal candidates were complaining about the lack of support they were getting in seats elsewhere.
"Some of their candidates running in Labor seats said they didn't get the support the person got who was running against me. They couldn't understand it and I can't understand it either," he said.
Dr Such says he quit the Liberal Party back in 2000 at a time of vicious battles between its factions and some of those people remained in the party now.

note: Mr Brock = other independent

Maybe the Liberal's should have spent that $400,000 on some actual policies.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Wonder how Mike Rann is feeling now ...
"2001"
Pretty devastated probably, but not about the election. He's got enough troubles on his plate at the moment after Julie Bishop took away his plum appointment to London and has left him slumming it in Rome.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
...The Liberals acted like they were home and hosed with all three independents in their pocket, but in reality they failed to win the support of even one and refused to give in gracefully, the premier refusing to resign his commission until defeated in a vote on the floor of the House of Assembly. Within two years, even the one Nationals MP was helping shore up the Labor government.
justapassenger

Jeff Kennett just didn't seem to understand that sometimes you have to compromise and ask for help. He called the independents all sorts of names in the lead-up to the 1999 election and then when it turned out he would need them to form government he just couldn't bring himself to be contrite. Later on when the Labor Party won Frankston and were negotiating with the independents to form government, Jeff really let fly and told them in no uncertain terms what a bunch of a-holes he thought they were... it was fairly obvious to the casual observer that Jeff simply didn't have a handle on the art of compromise and couldn't bring himself to negotiate with independents because he thought it was below him. It cost him government.

I'm not saying that Marshall is necessarily the same but there's a bit of a history of Liberal Party leaders showing they're incapable of dealing with independents - perhaps because many independents are break-aways from the conservative parties themselves. Bob Such's doorstop interview yesterday also bides badly for Marshall because (as you and Fabricator have pointed out) it shows the history of antipathy he has with the Liberal Party.

Here in Victoria we currently have a minority government since the (formerly Liberal) Member for Frankston got kicked out of the party last year over some misconduct allegations and he's making things as difficult for Denis Napthine as humanly possible by refusing to vote for much of his legislative agenda. To top it off there's a big factional blue currently between Napthine and the conservative blue-ribbon hump in his party over pre-selections for seats, culminating in his preferred candidate for the safe seat of Kew (Mary Wooldridge) being dumped by the rank and file a few weeks ago in favour of someone else. It's getting to a point now where nothing is getting done because the Liberal Party, after less than one term in office, is ham-strung by losing their majority and is now self-destructing in a factional bun-fight.

If Weatherill manages to get the independents on side he'll have to be firm with them about what they can and can't have, otherwise you'll end up with chaos like we currently have here in Victoria.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
Abc radio today ran a special election version of AM.

Discussed was the need for a second minerals port in South Australia.

You guys over in SA may finally see some development of new port infrastructure.

Let us all hope Artc are involved and rail is a major part of the development.
freightgate

Not even needed. Just a classic case of the Liberals spouting more corporate welfare for their mates in the mining industry.

Goes to show the intelligence of the average politician that this was even considered as policy.
  steam4ian Chief Commissioner

Bing

If we don't need a "second" minerals port in SA can you please tell me what is the "first" minerals port capable of loading Cape sized vessels.

Port Bonython can load oil and gas but has no minerals facility. Next to that the deepest port is Port Lincoln and I don't think that is Cape size.

Even Panamax ships struggle to get full loading at the other ports.

Ian
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Bing

If we don't need a "second" minerals port in SA can you please tell me what is the "first" minerals port capable of loading Cape sized vessels.

Port Bonython can load oil and gas but has no minerals facility. Next to that the deepest port is Port Lincoln and I don't think that is Cape size.

Even Panamax ships struggle to get full loading at the other ports.

Ian
steam4ian

Correct, Port Bonython is SA's only Cape Size port, and as of now it does not have a minerals loading, Sheep Hill (Port Spencer) is/was to be a new Cape Size port for minerals. Hopefully it goes ahead, but you know, people don't seem to think it's necessary, so who knows?
  David Peters Dr Beeching

Location: "With Hey Boy".
David Peters: I think that one variation of that plan was for Semaphore trams to break with the line and do street running Commerical st/Vincent St then rejoin the line near Ethelton station before going on to Semaphore. So it would have been back to the 1930's for the Port with trams AND trains... interesting.
don_dunstan


Yes I knew that, but at the other end of St Vincents Street near the Jervois Bridge it would need a very substantial ramp for the trams to get from the road back to the rail corridor. Cost might come into it though so the other alternative is to simply go over the top using the existing bridge's over the road and the River and hardly any cost involved at all.

The existing rail bridge on Commercial Road could have the tracks on it raised enough to be used by trams if it was engineered properly, it is only the extra height of part of the platform height now! Sort of like what was done on the Sydney Harbour Bridge for the tram stops on what was supposed to be heavy rail stations. It worked back then so it should work now.

Save all that work digging up the road as well to lay the tracks and also it would help keep the road traffic moving and save having to get rid of the palm trees in the median strip as well. Really how many off us really want to go right into the heart of Port Adelaide, there is nothing really there anymore. The railway station is right alongside the Canal Shopping centre now with Coles, Kmart and Post office etc.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
David, the Port is one of the most disappointing things about Adelaide in my opinion. They've been trying to turn it into a Fremantle for years and for some reason it's just never happened; don't know why - perhaps as a western suburbs local you might be able to offer an opinion on why it's still like a ghost-town after so many years of 'revitalisation'. I really don't know why it's not a tourist mecca like Fremantle, the historical buildings are sensational (albeit some are fairly run-down) and it's really a nice spot.

Certainly I don't think the answer was necessarily to divert the tram through the streets just for the sake of it but it was a novel idea. If they were going to have a light rail though the Port it might be an idea to make an interchange at the railway station and have trams go places that the railway doesn't already.

Back to topic; I was reading that the independents are already drawing up a list of things that they want for their electorates and Geoff Brock already has his eye on a cabinet position for himself championing rural and regional development. No doubt both prospective premiers will be bending over backwards to accommodate them.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Back to topic; I was reading that the independents are already drawing up a list of things that they want for their electorates and Geoff Brock already has his eye on a cabinet position for himself championing rural and regional development. No doubt both prospective premiers will be bending over backwards to accommodate them.
"don_dunstan"
I would guess that the bit in bold is the reporter placing ratings above honest journalism - a Murdoch or Reinhart website right? The ABC is reporting that neither of the two Independent MPs has raised the topic of a ministerial position.

As a recent resident of Aberfoyle Park who still works in the area and has family living there, I would like to see Bob Such push for proper MFS coverage for the 5159 area. Residents there pay the full metropolitan rate for the Emergency Services Levy but they are left relying on the Happy Valley CFS volunteers - a more equitable result would be turning the current Happy Valley CFS base over to the MFS and the government funding a new home for that CFS brigade at Chandlers Hill, so they can focus on proper CFS jobs instead of the suburban incidents the MFS specialise it.

The ABC website is also now calling it 23 seats for Labor, 20 for Liberal, 1 in doubt and 1 likely Liberal. The one in doubt is Mitchell, where the Liberal candidate (former sports journalist Corey Wingard) leads the Labor incumbent (Alan Sibbons) by just 233 votes. If Mitchell goes to Labor they will have a majority government, but they will still want to secure the formal support of at least one Independent to cover for the eventuality of losing a by-election (by-elections always favour the Opposition) or losing control of the Whip.
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
Are any of the independents regionally based? Any transport projects rail pagers think will get legs or is it too early?

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