It's the economy, stupid!

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Bingo! The AU$ is trading at US$0.599 this morning, the lowest its been since 2003; the ASX has also lost 200 points this morning and is now down to 5,100.

Biggest losers on the stock exchange include Qantas (of course), Afterpay, Worley Engineering and Woodside.
don_dunstan
Meanwhile my wife is burning 65h a week trying to keep up with her job and long list of projects.

Don, you mentioned trying to catch a falling knife is investing on the share market. Ask all the people who have made big money from the share market what they do?

Its actually quite simple, what ever everyone else is doing, do the opposite and yes timing and some luck does come into it.

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  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Bingo! The AU$ is trading at US$0.599 this morning, the lowest its been since 2003; the ASX has also lost 200 points this morning and is now down to 5,100.

Biggest losers on the stock exchange include Qantas (of course), Afterpay, Worley Engineering and Woodside.
don_dunstan
Meanwhile my wife is burning 65h a week trying to keep up with her job and long list of projects.

Don, you mentioned trying to catch a falling knife is investing on the share market. Ask all the people who have made big money from the share market what they do?

Its actually quite simple, what ever everyone else is doing, do the opposite and yes timing and some luck does come into it.
"RTT_Rules"

Off you go then, sink every spare cent you have into the ASX. It's definitely at BOTTOM, right? So put your money where your mouth is.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

Off you go then, sink every spare cent you have into the ASX. It's definitely at BOTTOM, right? So put your money where your mouth is.
don_dunstan
Again you demonstrate very limited knowledge in investing, please stick with your Term Deposits, it will be safer for you.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud

Off you go then, sink every spare cent you have into the ASX. It's definitely at BOTTOM, right? So put your money where your mouth is.
don_dunstan
Again you demonstrate very limited knowledge in investing, please stick with your Term Deposits, it will be safer for you.
"RTT_Rules"

Well a buying opportunity - for WHAT exactly? Because I bet every one of your tips turns out to be a dog.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I bought petrol for 99.9 cents today - but I guess according to some other posters that I just imagined it...

At least the good thing about this COVID-19 thing is that everyone - EVERYONE - has forgotten about that silly carbon dioxide is poison rubbish.

EDIT: Coles normally has 800 job applications per day - at the moment they're having 36,000 job applications a day. Does that give any hint about what's to come?
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

I bought petrol for 99.9 cents today - but I guess according to some other posters that I just imagined it...

At least the good thing about this COVID-19 thing is that everyone - EVERYONE - has forgotten about that silly carbon dioxide is poison rubbish.

EDIT: Coles normally has 800 job applications per day - at the moment they're having 36,000 job applications a day. Does that give any hint about what's to come?
don_dunstan
EVERYONE, has forgotten? I haven’t. Mind reading is not your strong point.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I bought petrol for 99.9 cents today - but I guess according to some other posters that I just imagined it...

At least the good thing about this COVID-19 thing is that everyone - EVERYONE - has forgotten about that silly carbon dioxide is poison rubbish.

EDIT: Coles normally has 800 job applications per day - at the moment they're having 36,000 job applications a day. Does that give any hint about what's to come?
don_dunstan
EVERYONE, has forgotten? I haven’t. Mind reading is not your strong point.
"michaelgm"

We're going to be hit with an incredible, unfathomable wall of poverty and unemployment. Generation X and Y haven't even seen a technical recession - they don't know what that is.

The Commonwealth government pleading with employers to not sack their casual staff - gimmie a break! Decades of neo-Thatcherite policy to casualise and completely remove the risks for the employer biting the system back by instantly putting millions of people onto Centrelink and welfare. We can't even fathom how bad things are yet to get in 2020.

And the Reserve should be doing the opposite - hiking rates, not cutting them again as they'll do tomorrow.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

I bought petrol for 99.9 cents today - but I guess according to some other posters that I just imagined it...

At least the good thing about this COVID-19 thing is that everyone - EVERYONE - has forgotten about that silly carbon dioxide is poison rubbish.

EDIT: Coles normally has 800 job applications per day - at the moment they're having 36,000 job applications a day. Does that give any hint about what's to come?
EVERYONE, has forgotten? I haven’t. Mind reading is not your strong point.

We're going to be hit with an incredible, unfathomable wall of poverty and unemployment. Generation X and Y haven't even seen a technical recession - they don't know what that is.

The Commonwealth government pleading with employers to not sack their casual staff - gimmie a break! Decades of neo-Thatcherite policy to casualise and completely remove the risks for the employer biting the system back by instantly putting millions of people onto Centrelink and welfare. We can't even fathom how bad things are yet to get in 2020.

And the Reserve should be doing the opposite - hiking rates, not cutting them again as they'll do tomorrow.
don_dunstan
Where to begin.
Reserve bank-should it cut tomorrow, and that’s expected.  25 basis points, That is effectively a 50% cut. No ammo left. One of the biggest casualties on the market has been Afterpay, good luck chasing a sizeable portion of those debts. A dubious business model in my view.
Leading to casual employees, being easily let go, and they will be. Labour hire companies will also be in strife. I think their parasites anyway.
Given the downturn in commerce, trade and travel, CO2 emissions should drop, wonder if Greta and Co are looking into that.


Going to be a long and turbulent ride.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud



Going to be a long and turbulent ride.
"michaelgm"

I could have responded to your quotes better if I had better functionality - for the last three weeks my version of Railpage has had some kind of mystery illness and I can't do 'likes' or anything either.

The AU$ is down to almost US$059.1 tonight - that's a fall of almost 15 percent since early January. That's an absolutely catastrophic outcome for a nation that is so incredibly reliant on overseas and off-shore for so much of our everyday consumption. Unless whatever you buy is hedged then its going to likely have to rise by that amount. Average car fifty grand has to find another eight grand or so. Detergents, toothpaste - most of it from overseas - all up fifteen percent. Get the picture?

The RBA probably needs to think about trying to arrest this very alarming and rapid free-fall of the Aussie dollar rather than cutting - they need to focus on supporting the AUD because the inflationary shock is going to be too great for the house of cards that is Australia.

Currency not negative interest rates - we could have an inflationary break-out that totally screws us like the seventies times a thousand.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I bought petrol for 99.9 cents today - but I guess according to some other posters that I just imagined it...

At least the good thing about this COVID-19 thing is that everyone - EVERYONE - has forgotten about that silly carbon dioxide is poison rubbish.

EDIT: Coles normally has 800 job applications per day - at the moment they're having 36,000 job applications a day. Does that give any hint about what's to come?
EVERYONE, has forgotten? I haven’t. Mind reading is not your strong point.

We're going to be hit with an incredible, unfathomable wall of poverty and unemployment. Generation X and Y haven't even seen a technical recession - they don't know what that is.

The Commonwealth government pleading with employers to not sack their casual staff - gimmie a break! Decades of neo-Thatcherite policy to casualise and completely remove the risks for the employer biting the system back by instantly putting millions of people onto Centrelink and welfare. We can't even fathom how bad things are yet to get in 2020.

And the Reserve should be doing the opposite - hiking rates, not cutting them again as they'll do tomorrow.
don_dunstan
Maths isn't his strong point either. As a Gen X I have been through 2 recessions that I clearly remember and one I was a taxpayer.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I bought petrol for 99.9 cents today - but I guess according to some other posters that I just imagined it...

At least the good thing about this COVID-19 thing is that everyone - EVERYONE - has forgotten about that silly carbon dioxide is poison rubbish.

EDIT: Coles normally has 800 job applications per day - at the moment they're having 36,000 job applications a day. Does that give any hint about what's to come?
EVERYONE, has forgotten? I haven’t. Mind reading is not your strong point.

We're going to be hit with an incredible, unfathomable wall of poverty and unemployment. Generation X and Y haven't even seen a technical recession - they don't know what that is.

The Commonwealth government pleading with employers to not sack their casual staff - gimmie a break! Decades of neo-Thatcherite policy to casualise and completely remove the risks for the employer biting the system back by instantly putting millions of people onto Centrelink and welfare. We can't even fathom how bad things are yet to get in 2020.

And the Reserve should be doing the opposite - hiking rates, not cutting them again as they'll do tomorrow.
don_dunstan
Maths isn't his strong point either. As a Gen X I have been through 2 recessions that I clearly remember and one I was a taxpayer.
"RTT_Rules"

Gen X is 1965 onward and you would have survived one as a taxpayer - but we haven't had a technical recession since early 90's. That's almost thirty years.

What was the second recession you went through (bearing in mind that the GFC wasn't actually a technical recession).
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Australian dollar now down to 57.1 US cents - that's a loss of 19 percent since the start of the year. ASX also down to 4,900 this morning.

There's no case to cut interest rates, if anything they should be raising.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Since writing that the dollar has now dipped to 55 cents. That's a loss of almost 23 percent since January - it's pretty much in free-fall. This is the REAL disaster, the coming wall of inflation is going to wipe us out!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

Gen X is 1965 onward and you would have survived one as a taxpayer - but we haven't had a technical recession since early 90's. That's almost thirty years.

What was the second recession you went through (bearing in mind that the GFC wasn't actually a technical recession).
don_dunstan
Early 90's and school early 80's.

One of the eye opening moments of the early 80's was visiting my cousins in suburban Gymea (same age) and playing with their friends who I knew well and one guy saying they were told no Christmas this year because their dad lost his job.

My mum told me years later than one recession Christmas or one in 70's ( I think this) that my dad was struggling on house to pay mortgage, Christmas etc. Mum said lets cut back Christmas, he said no, the boys will enjoy Christmas while I have $1 left in my pocket. Between those two life note worthy comments I've also made sure Christmas was never compromised regardless of my financial situation at the time and even when I didn't have kids and probably why I(we) live on limited credit, down grade our lifestyle below that of our income (even when I stuffed catalogs in newspapers for a living) to insure we are always covered for not a rainy day, rather rainy year.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Since writing that the dollar has now dipped to 55 cents. That's a loss of almost 23 percent since January - it's pretty much in free-fall. This is the REAL disaster, the coming wall of inflation is going to wipe us out!
don_dunstan
If I was an expert in such matters, I’d be the governor of the reserve bank, however, cutting interest rates now, will have little or zero effect.
Talk is of printing money, quantitative easing.
Look out.

Haven’t been game to look at the ASX.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Since writing that the dollar has now dipped to 55 cents. That's a loss of almost 23 percent since January - it's pretty much in free-fall. This is the REAL disaster, the coming wall of inflation is going to wipe us out!
don_dunstan
If I was an expert in such matters, I’d be the governor of the reserve bank, however, cutting interest rates now, will have little or zero effect.
Talk is of printing money, quantitative easing.
Look out.

Haven’t been game to look at the ASX.
"michaelgm"

It's below 4,900 now.

With the Aussie dollar so low then all the stuff that we make here like consumer goods, building materials, Commodores and Falcons will be really competitive on the global export stage... oh, wait...
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I paid 0.95.5c a litre for petrol today; I don't think I've paid below a dollar for over a decade - but there you have it. It won't last!

The RBA's interest rate cut already priced into the falling-like-a-stone dollar - our official interest rate is now 0.25% and there was also some information about the buying of bonds to create more borrowed money. I have no idea why they think that will work, making borrowed money cheaper and cheaper is what got us into this mess to begin with. All it will do is keep asset prices like real estate high.
  ANR Deputy Commissioner

We will be carrying bags and bags of money to buy some bread and milk.

Then Keating's prophecy of the 'Banana Republic' will be fulfilled.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
We will be carrying bags and bags of money to buy some bread and milk.

Then Keating's prophecy of the 'Banana Republic' will be fulfilled.
"ANR"

If I could hit "like" then I would!
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
The AU$ is down to almost US$059.1 tonight - that's a fall of almost 15 percent since early January... whatever you buy then is ... going to likely have to rise by that amount. Average car fifty grand has to find another eight grand or so. Detergents, toothpaste - most of it from overseas - all up fifteen percent.
don_dunstan
Actually, it's theoretically a rise of around 17.6%. Check your maths. 100 becomes 85, 15 is 17.6% of 85.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The AU$ is down to almost US$059.1 tonight - that's a fall of almost 15 percent since early January... whatever you buy then is ... going to likely have to rise by that amount. Average car fifty grand has to find another eight grand or so. Detergents, toothpaste - most of it from overseas - all up fifteen percent.
don_dunstan
Actually, it's theoretically a rise of around 17.6%. Check your maths. 100 becomes 85, 15 is 17.6% of 85.
"Graham4405"

Well I'm calling US$0.70 cents a hundred percent; it's been all over the shop today, as low as 55 cents - a drop of 15 cents is actually -21%.

Anyhow... it's all bad news for an economy that makes sweet F.A. here any more, the cost of all these imported goodies on our shelves goes up astronomically.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
The AU$ is down to almost US$059.1 tonight - that's a fall of almost 15 percent since early January... whatever you buy then is ... going to likely have to rise by that amount. Average car fifty grand has to find another eight grand or so. Detergents, toothpaste - most of it from overseas - all up fifteen percent.
Actually, it's theoretically a rise of around 17.6%. Check your maths. 100 becomes 85, 15 is 17.6% of 85.

Well I'm calling US$0.70 cents a hundred percent; it's been all over the shop today, as low as 55 cents - a drop of 15 cents is actually -21%.

Anyhow... it's all bad news for an economy that makes sweet F.A. here any more, the cost of all these imported goodies on our shelves goes up astronomically.
don_dunstan
Let's keep a little perspective here....... Yes it's bad for importers, I tried to pay for an invoice of stuff from Europe today and got a hell of a shock the the AUD is rapidly approaching .5 against the EURO

But it will be a huge boom for exporters of agricultural products (we do a fair bit of that you know) plus the miners as much as everyone loathes them. With production ramping up again in China (yes, demand will be lower but better than nothing and you can guarantee that the Chinese government will come up with some novel stimulus measures to keep the masses placated) this will bring a few more dollars into Aus once converted.

Now that we don't make cars anymore who cares? No one in their right mind is running out and buying a car mid virus anyway unless they are looking for a bargain. But we do still make some things that you mentioned like detergents and now the locals will have a competitive advantage over the imported product.

Yes, this thing is going to hurt like hell but like in all economic transactions there will be winners and there will be losers.

Our long suffering farmers might turn out to be double winners here - high prices for their goods plus as they live in the sticks they have far less chance of catching Covid19!
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
The AU$ is down to almost US$059.1 tonight - that's a fall of almost 15 percent since early January... whatever you buy then is ... going to likely have to rise by that amount. Average car fifty grand has to find another eight grand or so. Detergents, toothpaste - most of it from overseas - all up fifteen percent.
Actually, it's theoretically a rise of around 17.6%. Check your maths. 100 becomes 85, 15 is 17.6% of 85.

Well I'm calling US$0.70 cents a hundred percent; it's been all over the shop today, as low as 55 cents - a drop of 15 cents is actually -21%.

Anyhow... it's all bad news for an economy that makes sweet F.A. here any more, the cost of all these imported goodies on our shelves goes up astronomically.
Let's keep a little perspective here....... Yes it's bad for importers, I tried to pay for an invoice of stuff from Europe today and got a hell of a shock the the AUD is rapidly approaching .5 against the EURO

But it will be a huge boom for exporters of agricultural products (we do a fair bit of that you know) plus the miners as much as everyone loathes them. With production ramping up again in China (yes, demand will be lower but better than nothing and you can guarantee that the Chinese government will come up with some novel stimulus measures to keep the masses placated) this will bring a few more dollars into Aus once converted.

Now that we don't make cars anymore who cares? No one in their right mind is running out and buying a car mid virus anyway unless they are looking for a bargain. But we do still make some things that you mentioned like detergents and now the locals will have a competitive advantage over the imported product.

Yes, this thing is going to hurt like hell but like in all economic transactions there will be winners and there will be losers.

Our long suffering farmers might turn out to be double winners here - high prices for their goods plus as they live in the sticks they have far less chance of catching Covid19!
BrentonGolding
It's gob-smacking what we DON'T make here any more - I know that NSW and QLD had started importing bricks (yes, household bricks) from the United States because it was just too expensive to make them here with our astronomical LNG prices. Most detergents are made off-shore (ie Cussons went to Indonesia some decades ago). It's true that our exports are going to become more competitive but you also need to find those markets - and iron ore to China is almost non-existent at the moment because their steel mills aren't operating.

Also remember that domestic consumption is going down the toilet - Qantas confirmed that its now laid off a total of 30,000 people... they won't be the only one laying off masses of people.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
It's gob-smacking what we DON'T make here any more - I know that NSW and QLD had started importing bricks (yes, household bricks) from the United States because it was just too expensive to make them here with our astronomical LNG prices. Most detergents are made off-shore (ie Cussons went to Indonesia some decades ago). It's true that our exports are going to become more competitive but you also need to find those markets - and iron ore to China is almost non-existent at the moment because their steel mills aren't operating.

Also remember that domestic consumption is going down the toilet - Qantas confirmed that its now laid off a total of 30,000 people... they won't be the only one laying off masses of people.
don_dunstan
Hi Don, I don't disagree and I'm sure that you know that mine your opinion and mine on globalisation and some of the other excesses of laissez faire economics and the conduct of the ALP are not world's apart!

But your brick example is a classic case of where it would be pretty simple to re-start local production in the face of a crazy high exchange rate.

As for companies like Cussons if their contracts are written in USD as I am sure they are then they will suffer a major cost disadvantage against rivals who continued Australian production. Personally I always buy Australian made laundry detergent, dish washing liquid and when it comes to soap for me it is either Country Life from Shepparton or something a bit more fancy from a local stall or market.

Some of these Aus producers competing against the likes of Cussons will be rubbing their hands together right now as hoarders buy up stocks of product and when it comes time to refill the warehouses guess what? OS product is suddenly 15% or so more expensive so we'll take a bit less of that and a bit more of the Aussie made thanks.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Bingo! The AU$ is trading at US$0.599 this morning, the lowest its been since 2003; the ASX has also lost 200 points this morning and is now down to 5,100.

Biggest losers on the stock exchange include Qantas (of course), Afterpay, Worley Engineering and Woodside.
Meanwhile my wife is burning 65h a week trying to keep up with her job and long list of projects.

Don, you mentioned trying to catch a falling knife is investing on the share market. Ask all the people who have made big money from the share market what they do?

Its actually quite simple, what ever everyone else is doing, do the opposite and yes timing and some luck does come into it.
RTT_Rules
Plenty of money to be made on the sharemarket lately.

Collins Foods (ASX: CKF), owner of hundreds of KFC outlets in Australia and in recent years started buying up outlets in the Netherlands, besides their ownership of Sizzler and soon to be an exponentially expanding rollout of Taco Bell, have seen a steep decline in their share price lately, along with most other stock but particularly in the Consumer Discretionary segment.

Recent company announcements revealed a team member in Qld tested +ve to COVID-19 and three days later that all Dutch stores would close until April 4th. Share price has dived from almost $10 in late Feb. On Wednesday, share priced touched a low of $3.50 before an announcement that outlets are operating normally sans eat-in; takeout and drive thru are operating as normal. Later that day the share price reached $5.00 (40% gain within the day) and closed at $4.98.

As Rex Hunt would say, thank your mother for the rabbits! Laughing

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