It's the economy, stupid!

 
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
Latest car sales figures are out for last month.  A YTD drop of 8%.

And guess who saw a sales increase (10/2018 cw 10/2019): Suzuki (26.5%)
And a huge decrease - Holden (-41.3%)


Tesla don't publish their sales, but apparently over a 1000 Model 3 Tesla's are being sold per month....
Carnot
The new Jimny probably helped Suzuki alot, that looks like a cracking little thing.

Started to see a few Model 3's locally now, since the RHD ones were taking longer to get to market.

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  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Latest car sales figures are out for last month.  A YTD drop of 8%.

And guess who saw a sales increase (10/2018 cw 10/2019): Suzuki (26.5%)
And a huge decrease - Holden (-41.3%)


Tesla don't publish their sales, but apparently over a 1000 Model 3 Tesla's are being sold per month....
The new Jimny probably helped Suzuki alot, that looks like a cracking little thing.

Started to see a few Model 3's locally now, since the RHD ones were taking longer to get to market.
speedemon08
I'm even seeing quite a few around Bendigo.  Also the odd Hyundai Ioniq.

And who is buying vehicles?:

Private 35,395
Business 34,822
Gov't 3,065
Rental 6,083
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I still have serious doubts about autonomous cars.  Level 5 automated vehicles are likely to be limited to certain areas IMO (I could be wrong) and thus defeating one of the main reasons people buy a car - flexibility.

With the higher capital outlay for EVs, I think we might see lease arrangements increase in popularity.

At the end of the day EVs aren't really the solution.  In some ways a distraction from investment in Public Transport and better urban planning.
Carnot
Your mixing your Levels.

Level 3 requires human supervision and can operate in auto mode frequently but not everywhere.

Think Tesla Autopilot today. You can sit there and let the car drive itself, but must be paying attention and ready to take over and licensed driver.

Level 4 is mixed but when in Auto driverless or non-driver focused mode (driver watch Youtube for example) the car can only operate on designated and controlled roads.

Tesla carpark automation where the cars comes to you is starting to enter Level 4. Again the driver must be licensed.

Level 5 is fully autonomous and can operate anywhere with or without a human in the vehicle and the human doesn't have to know how to drive or e watching the road and the car may not even have full driver controls as you know today.

Think school run, but parents are not in the car. There are no Level 5 cars.


I think Level 5 and even potentially Level 4 will really open up the short-term car hire market and basically kill off the Uber / taxi industry or at least the drivers jobs that they employ.

Note: Taxi driver and local delivery driver's are on the jobs to go extinct list.

The Greens are going very quiet on EV's as the likes of Tesla and others are following has basically shown you can still have your large high powered, 4x4 car and not consume oil.

EV's are a solution to consuming less oil, less pollution and less urban noise and aimed at individual transport.

PT is a solution to reduced road congestion and aimed at mass transport. If you are one of the mass and going that direct, solution!  

I think if anyone ever believed the cities of the future would not have cars in the numbers of today, they are terribly mistaken. The only difference is what is their energy source and who or rather what is driving the car.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Latest car sales figures are out for last month.  A YTD drop of 8%.

And guess who saw a sales increase (10/2018 cw 10/2019): Suzuki (26.5%)
And a huge decrease - Holden (-41.3%)


Tesla don't publish their sales, but apparently over a 1000 Model 3 Tesla's are being sold per month....
The new Jimny probably helped Suzuki alot, that looks like a cracking little thing.

Started to see a few Model 3's locally now, since the RHD ones were taking longer to get to market.
speedemon08
The new Jimny is going back to roots that drove the success of the Sierra. I know so many people including myself who walked away from Suzuki when the Sierra was replaced all those years ago with the far less functional Jimny, especially lack of LWB tray back.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Latest car sales figures are out for last month.  A YTD drop of 8%.

And guess who saw a sales increase (10/2018 cw 10/2019): Suzuki (26.5%)
And a huge decrease - Holden (-41.3%)


Tesla don't publish their sales, but apparently over a 1000 Model 3 Tesla's are being sold per month....
Carnot
Totally not surprised about Holden, I think their brand is irretrievable and they might as well rebrand as Chevrolet in Australia - might actually lift their sales if they killed the Holden brand.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Totally not surprised about Holden, I think their brand is irretrievable and they might as well rebrand as Chevrolet in Australia - might actually lift their sales if they killed the Holden brand.
don_dunstan
Agreed.

There is no such thing in the world as a Holden factory. It is an irrelevant badge.
  ANR Assistant Commissioner

Holden should leave Chevy and Isuzu alone and return to its original core business - a saddlery. Leave the horsepower to the horses.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Grim warnings from the RBA itself about the state of the economy - ABC;

The Reserve Bank is worried that it is running out of room to slash interest rates further and that wages growth is "no longer expected to pick up".

Workers are unlikely to get major pay rises for at least the next two years amid a weak economic environment.
Australia's central bank has forecast subdued wage growth of just 2.3 per cent up to the end of 2021, a major reason it was still prepared to ease further if needed.

However, it is also concerned that additional rate cuts might backfire by hurting consumer sentiment — a signal it might sit on its hands for at least a couple of months...

...The central bank said slow wages growth was likely to keep domestic inflation pressures contained — and that inflation is unlikely to hit the bottom of that target range until 2022 at the earliest.

Furthermore, the RBA noted the recent surge in home prices, especially on Australia's east coast, saying the turnaround has come "sooner and faster" than previously expected.

Home loan approvals have been increasing lately, while auction clearance rates have been trending higher too.

Time to sack Phil Lowe, all he's managed to do since assuming that job is re-ignite the east-coast property bubble and continue to crush wages. And to make matters worse, Josh Frydenburg's budget surplus was based entirely on the unrealistic assumption that wages growth would 'normalise' to around 4-5% p/a. Clearly that's not going to happen.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Grim warnings from the RBA itself about the state of the economy - ABC;

The Reserve Bank is worried that it is running out of room to slash interest rates further and that wages growth is "no longer expected to pick up".

Workers are unlikely to get major pay rises for at least the next two years amid a weak economic environment.
Australia's central bank has forecast subdued wage growth of just 2.3 per cent up to the end of 2021, a major reason it was still prepared to ease further if needed.

However, it is also concerned that additional rate cuts might backfire by hurting consumer sentiment — a signal it might sit on its hands for at least a couple of months...

...The central bank said slow wages growth was likely to keep domestic inflation pressures contained — and that inflation is unlikely to hit the bottom of that target range until 2022 at the earliest.

Furthermore, the RBA noted the recent surge in home prices, especially on Australia's east coast, saying the turnaround has come "sooner and faster" than previously expected.

Home loan approvals have been increasing lately, while auction clearance rates have been trending higher too.

Time to sack Phil Lowe, all he's managed to do since assuming that job is re-ignite the east-coast property bubble and continue to crush wages. And to make matters worse, Josh Frydenburg's budget surplus was based entirely on the unrealistic assumption that wages growth would 'normalise' to around 4-5% p/a. Clearly that's not going to happen.
don_dunstan
Interest rates have been almost the sole tool used to control fiscal policy for decades, which was fine (or rather a lazy option) when the economies were operated with intentional higher mostly artificial inflation. However inflation has been progressively wound down for the last 25 years so its time to find something else that is actually more meaningful to the modern digital age economy. i.e. the Tesla of the car industry.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Indonesian President Joko Widodo makes a mockery of the so-called "free-trade agreement" he's just signed with Australia by ordering public procurement agencies to not use foreign goods - Jakarta Post:

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo asked the National Public Procurement Agency (LKPP) to prioritize locally produced goods over imports so that procurement activities could boost domestic industry.

Speaking during the opening ceremony of LKPP’s annual coordination meeting on Wednesday, Jokowi urged the agency to avoid procuring goods through imports if the items could be produced locally. “How convenient is that for the countries that we import from, while we are still burdened by trade balance and current account deficits?” he asked, “Why is it so common to import goods? It’s just too much, especially as it is using the government’s money.”

Jokowi acknowledged that importing goods was cheaper. However, he said it would negatively impact the country’s efforts to create more employment opportunities.

Jokowi asked that the LKPP start noting items that could be procured domestically as well as ones that had to be imported.

“Just strike them out with a red highlighter, if they’re not necessary,” Jokowi said.

Refreshing to see a national leader prepared to stand up for his population for a change - however incredibly dishonest of him to announce this right after signing a free-trade agreement that supposedly makes this behaviour illegal. Goes to show what a load of rubbish these "free-trade" things are and what suckers we are for signing them.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Democratic nomination hopeful and former New York Mayor Micheal Bloomberg tells us that Chinese President-for-life Xi Jinping is not a dictator - National Interest;

China’s communist party is doing a lot to help the environment, Bloomberg told PBS Firing Line host Margaret Hoover. Chinese officials have to maintain a strong environmental standing if they want to stay in office, the former New York City mayor-turned wealthy environmentalist added.

“The communist party wants to stay in power in China, and they listen to the public,” Bloomberg told Hoover, adding: “Xi Jinping is not a dictator. He has to satisfy his constituents, or he’s not going to survive.”

Going by this logic Stalin and Pol Pot should have simply been "un-elected" by their "constituents" for committing mass murder. How clueless are these Democratic nominees?
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Australia's dreadful economy ranked 93rd on a global scale of economic diversity - Defence Connect:

The latest Harvard University ‘Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity’ has revealed a startling insight into Australia’s economy – painting a picture of an unsophisticated economy, comparable to developing nations in Africa and central Asia, which has a dramatic impact on Australia’s long-term national security...

...Australia's insistence on pursuing 'free trade agreements' with nations that have additional layers of legislative and bureaucratic industry protections, combined with successive governments presiding over the death of Australia's manufacturing sector and a reluctance to invest in advanced manufacturing techniques, has prompted Australia to become little more than a mine and farm for the rising powers of Indo-Pacific Asia and the very embodiment of the lazy country moniker, which author Donald Horne originally intended the Lucky Country to be known as.

But it's all in the name of economic efficiency, rewarding those mines that make us money and punishing any elaborately transformed manufacturing that requires brains. Wonder how we'll handle any blockade of major international shipping routes?
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Can you defend that rubbish - I bet you can't. Go on, try.
don_dunstan
Politics is the art of the possible. i.e. they can have all the caring sharing ideology in the world but it counts for nought if they're not elected.

Labor went into the last election and got hammered on tax reforms. They're coming after retirees etc.
They got it wrong. I worked hard and took myself (with some help from Bob) from the wrong side of the ledger to the 'right'. I don't want them taxing the smeg out of my hard earned savings either.

Now if you believe the tax system is fair then it's good the other side stayed in power. So please spare us the faux tears for the great unwashed.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Isn't it lucky that the Libs, the self-proclaimed only mob who can manage the economy properly, are in power. Boy, we'd be in trouble otherwise.

(Removes tongue from cheek and exits stage left whistling, "The Money Tree".)
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Time to sack Phil Lowe, all he's managed to do since assuming that job is re-ignite the east-coast property bubble and continue to crush wages. And to make matters worse, Josh Frydenburg's budget surplus was based entirely on the unrealistic assumption that wages growth would 'normalise' to around 4-5% p/a. Clearly that's not going to happen.
don_dunstan
In the absence of anything useful from the LNP, the RBA's left holding the bag as far as stimulating the economy goes (don't visualise that). No different than the US where Thump keeps pushing for negative interest rates because his side doesn't want to spend.

Things are playing out pretty much as I expected. The tax cuts for most people have not significantly increased their take home pay and they aren't spending up big in celebration. The rate cuts are going into paying down debt. There's nothing to inspire confidence.

Now those who can are heading back to the housing market betting on those record low interest rates to drive capital growth. Ironically, the banks are slashing dividends as they experience the biggest revenue downturn in decades. Something's gotta break.
  mejhammers1 Chief Commissioner

Democratic nomination hopeful and former New York Mayor Micheal Bloomberg tells us that Chinese President-for-life Xi Jinping is not a dictator - National Interest;

China’s communist party is doing a lot to help the environment, Bloomberg told PBS Firing Line host Margaret Hoover. Chinese officials have to maintain a strong environmental standing if they want to stay in office, the former New York City mayor-turned wealthy environmentalist added.

“The communist party wants to stay in power in China, and they listen to the public,” Bloomberg told Hoover, adding: “Xi Jinping is not a dictator. He has to satisfy his constituents, or he’s not going to survive.”

Going by this logic Stalin and Pol Pot should have simply been "un-elected" by their "constituents" for committing mass murder. How clueless are these Democratic nominees?
don_dunstan
Michael Bloomberg is misguided. All the Democratic nominees are clueless because of Michael Bloombergs comments on China? As opposed to corrupt, Russia loving, nepotist that is in the white house? Putin's Russia poses just as and in many ways a greater threat the the world as China. It is pity Trumptards cannot see this.

Michael
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
Democratic nomination hopeful and former New York Mayor Micheal Bloomberg tells us that Chinese President-for-life Xi Jinping is not a dictator - National Interest;

China’s communist party is doing a lot to help the environment, Bloomberg told PBS Firing Line host Margaret Hoover. Chinese officials have to maintain a strong environmental standing if they want to stay in office, the former New York City mayor-turned wealthy environmentalist added.

“The communist party wants to stay in power in China, and they listen to the public,” Bloomberg told Hoover, adding: “Xi Jinping is not a dictator. He has to satisfy his constituents, or he’s not going to survive.”

Going by this logic Stalin and Pol Pot should have simply been "un-elected" by their "constituents" for committing mass murder. How clueless are these Democratic nominees?
Michael Bloomberg is misguided. All the Democratic nominees are clueless because of Michael Bloombergs comments on China? As opposed to corrupt, Russia loving, nepotist that is in the white house? Putin's Russia poses just as and in many ways a greater threat the the world as China. It is pity Trumptards cannot see this.

Michael
mejhammers1
The Russia Hysteria, Hypocrisy at its finest. The USA, Interferes in elections and affairs of dozens of nations over the past 70yrs including Russia, No one Gives a smeg. Russia, Does a little bit of tweaking in US Affairs, the entire world seems to light on fire. Russia is fairly backwards, the are in no shape or form to be economically and militarily a superpower as NATO outnumbers them massively. The Democrats jumped right on the shallow Russia hysteria train.

Bloomberg is Kind of right though on Xi. If Xi Screws Up or enough of the party turns against him they can oust him, all they did was remove the term limits on the presidency, The CCP a number of times have removed its leaders through internal affairs such as Lui Shaoqi and Even bloody Mao they removed from office a number of times. They can get rid of him if they want too, but I think from their view he's doing a decent enough Job.

Anyway his attempt for the Democratic Nomination is bound to fail.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/michael-bloomberg-s-presidential-bid-is-almost-certainly-doomed-20191109-p538zc.html
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Labor went into the last election and got hammered on tax reforms. They're coming after retirees etc.
They got it wrong. I worked hard and took myself (with some help from Bob) from the wrong side of the ledger to the 'right'. I don't want them taxing the smeg out of my hard earned savings either.
Groundrelay
All that is fair enough; my concern is that there's just too much money going to retirees and not enough opportunities and well-paid jobs to go round for the next generation coming through. I'm especially concerned about the fact that trying to buy a house with your own little bit of land around it is nigh on impossible for people working in unstable low-pay work like hospitality, retail and healthcare. We don't want the next generation to be disengaged and feeling like there's nothing left for them, we want them to be able to participate in what was basically a Menzies idea of most Aussies owning their own home.

Labor tackled the issue from the wrong end in my opinion - instead of trying to on-shore industries for workers to participate in they were promising more welfare/healthcare for the people they've helped push onto marginal employment or unemployment. I really don't think the LNP had the answers either but they looked to the Labor Party to try and provide them with what Kevin Rudd coined "the ladder of opportunity" and instead got a national transgender centre in Tasmania and an assault on the free money that pensioners get from owning shares.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
In the absence of anything useful from the LNP, the RBA's left holding the bag as far as stimulating the economy goes (don't visualise that). No different than the US where Thump keeps pushing for negative interest rates because his side doesn't want to spend.

Things are playing out pretty much as I expected. The tax cuts for most people have not significantly increased their take home pay and they aren't spending up big in celebration. The rate cuts are going into paying down debt. There's nothing to inspire confidence.

Now those who can are heading back to the housing market betting on those record low interest rates to drive capital growth. Ironically, the banks are slashing dividends as they experience the biggest revenue downturn in decades. Something's gotta break.
Groundrelay
I'm only a passing observer on these issues too but I think you've nailed it there - where Phil Lowe et al have gone wrong is in reigniting the Sydney and Melbourne property fires with 2018's losses almost wiped out while poor Perth real-estate owners are still confronted with a market down 21% since 2015 with no sign of that fall stopping. We have a two-level national economy; Sydney and Melbourne vs. the rest of us and frankly everything they do continues to make that situation worse.

On an international level Trump might have no choice but to scale up his tariffs against China for no other reason than the Chinese are not negotiating in good faith. What Trump is asking for is impossible anyway, China doesn't even want to give up its 'developing nation' status in the World Trade Organisation let alone have to allow unfettered foreign investment in business and real-estate so all this is just a side show while we see if Trump will actually follow through on his threat to break gloablisation once and for all.

Finally I think our Big Four banks were always bound to break their 25+ year winning streak of government protected profiteering - the most profitable businesses on earth per capita at one stage there. Not sustainable forever - maybe the canary in the coal-mine for the fact that corporate Australia is in for a rough time in the next few years.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Michael Bloomberg is misguided. All the Democratic nominees are clueless because of Michael Bloombergs comments on China?
mejhammers1
They've all demonstrated varying levels of stupid on several issues; Bloomberg's naive views on China are just the latest. As Dangersdan said Bloomberg's nomination probably won't get up anyway.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Bloomberg is Kind of right though on Xi. If Xi Screws Up or enough of the party turns against him they can oust him, all they did was remove the term limits on the presidency, The CCP a number of times have removed its leaders through internal affairs such as Lui Shaoqi and Even bloody Mao they removed from office a number of times. They can get rid of him if they want too, but I think from their view he's doing a decent enough Job.
Dangersdan707
Er, no, that might not be how it happens. Xi is prez for life there, what happens if he (for example) becomes mentally incompetent and another Gang of Four ensues; how does the Politburo fix that situation without a coup of some kind?

Incidentally I wasn't surprised to read this weekend that the key Trump impeachment "whistle-blower" turned out to be a member of the Obama team who heard the conversation second-hand. The Democrats need to seriously stop digging the hole that they've made for themselves with this - Hunter and Joe Biden were clearly not helping each other out in a way that was at all ethical and yet somehow they're making this a matter to try and impeach Trump about? Again, how collectively dumb is the entire US Democratic party - they'll probably get so desperate for a serious candidate they'll invite Hillary to run again - they really are that stupid.
  mejhammers1 Chief Commissioner

Michael Bloomberg is misguided. All the Democratic nominees are clueless because of Michael Bloombergs comments on China?
They've all demonstrated varying levels of stupid on several issues; Bloomberg's naive views on China are just the latest. As Dangersdan said Bloomberg's nomination probably won't get up anyway.
don_dunstan
Varying levels of stupid on various issues. like what? Evidence! Just because you oppose them does not mean they are stupid Don!

Michael
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
There's always a sporting chance of stupidity when the only qualification you need to run for President is flipping great wodges of cash.
  mejhammers1 Chief Commissioner

Democratic nomination hopeful and former New York Mayor Micheal Bloomberg tells us that Chinese President-for-life Xi Jinping is not a dictator - National Interest;

China’s communist party is doing a lot to help the environment, Bloomberg told PBS Firing Line host Margaret Hoover. Chinese officials have to maintain a strong environmental standing if they want to stay in office, the former New York City mayor-turned wealthy environmentalist added.

“The communist party wants to stay in power in China, and they listen to the public,” Bloomberg told Hoover, adding: “Xi Jinping is not a dictator. He has to satisfy his constituents, or he’s not going to survive.”

Going by this logic Stalin and Pol Pot should have simply been "un-elected" by their "constituents" for committing mass murder. How clueless are these Democratic nominees?
Michael Bloomberg is misguided. All the Democratic nominees are clueless because of Michael Bloombergs comments on China? As opposed to corrupt, Russia loving, nepotist that is in the white house? Putin's Russia poses just as and in many ways a greater threat the the world as China. It is pity Trumptards cannot see this.

Michael
The Russia Hysteria, Hypocrisy at its finest. The USA, Interferes in elections and affairs of dozens of nations over the past 70yrs including Russia, No one Gives a smeg. Russia, Does a little bit of tweaking in US Affairs, the entire world seems to light on fire. Russia is fairly backwards, the are in no shape or form to be economically and militarily a superpower as NATO outnumbers them massively. The Democrats jumped right on the shallow Russia hysteria train.

Bloomberg is Kind of right though on Xi. If Xi Screws Up or enough of the party turns against him they can oust him, all they did was remove the term limits on the presidency, The CCP a number of times have removed its leaders through internal affairs such as Lui Shaoqi and Even bloody Mao they removed from office a number of times. They can get rid of him if they want too, but I think from their view he's doing a decent enough Job.

Anyway his attempt for the Democratic Nomination is bound to fail.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/michael-bloomberg-s-presidential-bid-is-almost-certainly-doomed-20191109-p538zc.html
Dangersdan707
I am merely pointing out about Russian Interference as opposed to China, did not mention the US which I wholly agree with you. The US has installed some awful regimes. This has been mentioned ad nauseum. But to call what Russia is doing, just a little bit of tweaking in US affairs, come on Dan you surely do not believe that. That regime has annexed Crimea, has meddled in the Brexit referendum and political opponents have died, not to mention the Salisbury attack on Russian Nationals on UK soil. and now that the US has pulled out of Syria, they are bound to exert their influence in that region. Yeah they are all merely tweaks!

Michael
  mejhammers1 Chief Commissioner

@don_dunstan So what if the whistleblower was a former Obama official. Forget about Officer Vidmans testimony or the fact many Rrpublicans think that Trump is wrong.

Maybe what the Bidens had done was wrong, the point is that it has been proven that Trump has bteached the Constitution in making aid approved by congress conditional on essentially a foreign power spying on a US citizen. But hey those pesky Democrats hey.

Trump has absolutely no right to question Biden or anyone else given his track record.

As regards to the Democratic nominee, the only ones I would like to see is Sanders, Warren or Kamala Harris. Sod the rest including Clinton if she runs. Republican lite candidates can go and jump as far as I am concerned.


Michael

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