So what's going to replace coal?

 

Pinned post created by dthead

Posted 3 years ago

  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
^ That’s smeg, they’re not even trying to provide a decent representation of what’s being produced. They’ve nearly laid plots of power output over each other, but neglected to highlight that HPR’s output scale is a full factor of 60 enlarged against Loy to make it lol meaningful. Gladstone isn’t even shown, and response times are quoted in magnitudes not even measured by the market, which basically means they’re likely just made up.

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  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Interesting read.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/31/a-great-year-for-clean-energy-in-australia-ends-while-bad-news-for-coal-continues
Biased author though, at a Melbourne University green energy advocacy thing. Also fails to mention the billions being put into it by various state and Commonwealth programs - and the forced allocation of consumers to a percentage of 'green' things.
But that is not how the private companies want it done though so they can make big bucks shuffling around the deckchairs on the Titanic!
They make a lot of money out of creating a crisis situation - the same as Enron did in California seventeen years ago. Weatherill also allowed Playford to close way too early and the result was that big blackout last spring - they tried to spin that one away but any way you look at it it was an over-reliance on a very long and complicated grid system combined with no baseload left in SA.

And that Guardian article completely fails to mention the $$$ that the VIC and SA governments had to put in to building diesel back-up plants in case the wonderful green energy fails again. Diesel not gas. Why no outrage from the greenies about that one?
It amazes me that people complain about the amount of government subsidy being applied to green power, but conveniently ignore the fact that back in the day, coal fired power stations were not exactly built by private enterprise!

The national grid works effectively enough in my opinion. It is not complicated at all especially when compared to what exists in Europe (where you can sometimes see electricity being pumped around in a circle between a few adjacent countries).

Back-up power is more likely to guard against failing base load coal generated power than if the wind suddenly drops. Battery backup is far preferable when you consider the following example:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-outsmarts-lumbering-coal-units-after-loy-yang-trips-70003/
DirtyBallast
A battery for a power station trip is one thing, but as reserve for the wind doesn't blow, you are talking huge.

The one in SA is good for 100MW for 60min. For when the wind doesn't blow to avoid large scale GT's or diesel you need 1000's of MW hours.

Some coal fired was built by private enterprise, but yes most won't.

The difference is the scale of the subsidies. For coal the best numbers I've seen the dreamers come up with is a few $billion over 50 years but doesn't take into account the profits generated along the way and industry growth that ran on the back of many a power station construction. However the subsidies being thrown at RE in some cases today is much much higher.

Its likely Australia is reaching peak demand in that even with population growth we are unlikely to need much more generating capacity growth than today due to more efficient technologies for lighting, ie LED, most houses wanting AC's having them, improved insulation of older and newer houses, replacing houses with apartments, increasing roll out of domestic and commercial roof top PV solar and demise of power intensive industries, for example loss of Kurri Kurri and Point henry smelters equaled about 500MW of base load. When Portland, Boyne, Bell Bay and Tomago finally close as expected by early 2030's due to the Dreamers power situation BS killing the industry they will release 2500MW of base load.

So building power stations in the future is under a different driver than the past, not growth, but sustainability. So you can build a new coal fired power station and not have to deal with under uterlisation, rather just shut down an aging plant for which nearly all are getting long in the tooth. Replacing all the current coal fired power stations with modern versions would alone cut emissions by around 25-30% and not harm industry or power prices. But no, some idiots think they known better and sending aluminum production to China and India to make it from coal there is supposed to be better.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
But no, some idiots think they known better and sending aluminum production to China and India to make it from coal there is supposed to be better.
RTT_Rules
This is the part that I find truly perplexing - as if burning it in other countries doesn't count somehow. Doesn't count because they're already polluted?

I swore I wouldn't come back to this thread because it just gets up my goat!

Happy New Year anyways -
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
For once I agree with Don.
  arctic Deputy Commissioner

Location: Zurich
The battery is providing in this case primary frequency control which is about stabilizing frequency immediately a deviation is detected from 50 hz. All plants connected to the grid would have seen this deviation and Gladstone still did its job of also reacting. The article recognizes this and specifically says the battery did not prevent a blackout.

I don’t think the battery is intended to be a replacement for a large continuing loss of power from the grid, this is what secondary response is for where other partially loaded but slower to move load generation comes in. Unlike the guardian article which was full of inaccuracies this renew economy article seems to report the facts.

As for the charts, it is standard practice in engineering to show a scale relevant to the output. Even on the same chart as long as it is clear and in this case it is since they clear wanted to show the output speed of the battery.

As for the diesels, the greenies most like don’t get too upset since this is low capacity factor generation. So their hours of running is low given the backup nature.

Cheers
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
...
As for the diesels, the greenies most like don’t get too upset since this is low capacity factor generation. So their hours of running is low given the backup nature.

Cheers
arctic
There is more commentary now around the issue being peak power not so much base load.

At the same time the usual suspects are peddling more anti-renewable scare tactics. Remember it’s the fossil fuel chain that has the wealth and influence here. Even so we now have the likes of BHP questioning the mindset of organisations it contributes to.

Manufacturing has been moving to low-cost countries long before this overplayed energy issue. Given these countries produce and export far more manufactured goods than many developed countries such as Australia it’s reasonable to expect they will have far greater carbon emissions.

The discussion needs to consider productive vs non-productive emissions. Emissions from manufacturing is far more acceptable than powering millions of swimming pool pumps. One is worth supporting and that means the other should sacrifice.

Yes we need to protect the vulnerable. However, don’t we have an obligation to do that anyway yet fail to for economic reasons. Razz

P.S. How's the rise in Petrol prices affecting "hard working Aussie families". What's being done about that?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
What a rubbish argument.

Manufacturing has been moving anyway so don't worry about preserving what you have. Infaxt let's help them pack up. That's what you are saying.

There is a sector of our manufacturing industry that is here because we were a low energy cost country. They won't leave unless that changes,  which it is in last few years and they are.

Why should we send our coal to other countries to make stuff like aluminium because they can buy it cheaper than burning it Oz. Yes this is happening.  Dubai in 2020 will start burning Australia coal and one of benifeceries is their aluminium sector which also uses Australian Bauxite/alumina.

Why should a country the has more energy resources pee capita than most others be one of the more expensive to run a pool pump, light, AC, cooking or heater? Just to comply with some one else's agenda.

Base load off peak power prices have double on 10 years, peak prices are a bigger concern but not helped by removing idle coal fired capacity which used to look after summer.

Petrol prices are cheaper now per litre than on 1990 after inflation has taken into account and cars burn far less per mile. So irrelevant.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Remember it’s the fossil fuel chain that has the wealth and influence here.
Groundrelay
What a complete and utter load of rubbish. Elon Musk has made his billions in part from being able to successfully harvest government subsidies for things like electric cars (each electric car made in the United States gets a direct subsidy of $12,000 from the Federal government) and the so-called future cities thing (paid for by the Californian government).

People keep making out like the green movement is run by benevolent Camelite nuns who aren't in it for themselves - nothing could be further from the truth.
The discussion needs to consider productive vs non-productive emissions. Emissions from manufacturing is far more acceptable than powering millions of swimming pool pumps. One is worth supporting and that means the other should sacrifice.
Groundrelay
This is totally un-workable.
Yes we need to protect the vulnerable. However, don’t we have an obligation to do that anyway yet fail to for economic reasons. Razz
Groundrelay
We HAVE failed. We ARE an economic basket case, it just hasn't become apparent yet because the real-estate and immigration bubbles are still pushing along - once those things fall over (and they will) then it will become apparent to everyone that we have long been Keatings Banana Republic. And there's no way we are protecting vulnerable people from the extremely high prices of 'green' energy - telling pensioners that they must pay $1,000+ for a quarter of winter electricity is a manifestation of this failure in my opinion.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Manufacturing has been moving anyway so don't worry about preserving what you have. Infaxt let's help them pack up. That's what you are saying.
RTT_Rules
It's the working class and the poor who have suffered the most from this transition to the 'new economy'; the working class in particular because the well-paid and stable jobs in manufacturing have all but disappeared now leaving them with the horrible-pay very insecure service-industry type jobs guaranteed to lock them into poverty forever.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
For once I agree with Don.
RTT_Rules
Don't sound so surprised!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I think you won't find too many is disagree that the Victorian sourced coal fired power sector should be wound down. However its replacement needs to be cost effective and reliable and currently the only options on the table to replace the coal fired sector is coal or nuclear. Large scale gas is an option, but expensive and where does the gas come from. Modern thermal high grade coal is the most likely answer.

If we look at a modern bench mark in Dubai, they are building a 4 unit 2400MW coal fired power station with about 45% efficiency using Australian black coal from NSW/Qld. Construction time for unit 1 is just under 3 years then each new unit comes on line every 12 mths or so. The plant is a PPP with a contracted price of US$42/MW. Go through much of the anit coal propaganda and you will find time frames and costs much larger.

IF back in 2013, commitment by NSW, Qld and Vic to build one of the above each with a unit coming on line in either of the states from 2016 through to 2028, ie one a year, we would be in a much better position today and not experiencing the uncertainty of supply or power prices.

By PPP, the govt sets a weighted average floor price for power such that the private investment is attractive, thus preventing the need for state govt to stick their hands in their pockets. But at the same time, the ceiling price needs to be dropped from a ridiculous $14000/MW to $250/MW. At $250MW, even a an old petrol power generator would be profitable, so why the need for higher prices?

SA cannot justify such a large power station unless they want to export into the east coast, but a single or twin unit station would achieve a more stable network. Due to SA's extremely large winter to summer increase in demand, SA needs 1 unit of around 400 to 600MW to be seasonal.

At the same time RE should only be allowed to bid into the market if it bids a guaranteed 24/7 supply or a separate peak supply, again they must bid and supply, failure to supply they should be penalised. By doing this, RE wind/solar will be forced to invest in GT, Diesel gen, battery or small scale hydro to provide a back up source and hence again provide the energy sector with security of supply and price.

(above is my suggestion, not the only option, but you should hopefully get my drift)
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
Gas is attempted to be used to replace coal with the Plant in Wonthaggi
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Gas is attempted to be used to replace coal with the Plant in Wonthaggi
Dangersdan707
I couldn't find any references to this project, can you provide?

Vic currently has ~5500MW of installed coal fired capacity at the three remaining operational power stations, I'm not sure how much is actually produced but I suspect in summer its close to full capacity.

Its not impossible to replace this with gas, the company I work for makes aluminium solely from gas and generates roughly the same amount of power using combined cycle technology, typically running 50-55% efficiency. But you need a bloody big gas reserve and pipeline to generate 5500MW of output each hour.

However it should not be considered clean as the brown haze that envelops southern Dubai where there is over 10,000MW of gas fired power generation during periods of no wind will attest to.

Regards
Shane
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
And that brown haze, what is it? Irony
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
opps my bad, may of been the mortlake Power Plant, Sorry saw it on the news some years ago if memory serves me correctly
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
opps my bad, may of been the mortlake Power Plant, Sorry saw it on the news some years ago if memory serves me correctly
Dangersdan707
Ok thanks, that's 275MW x 2 peaking gas turbines.

They had plans to double its capacity, but seem to be dragging their feet, my view this needs to happen ASAP.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Manufacturing has been moving anyway so don't worry about preserving what you have. Infaxt let's help them pack up. That's what you are saying.
It's the working class and the poor who have suffered the most from this transition to the 'new economy'; the working class in particular because the well-paid and stable jobs in manufacturing have all but disappeared now leaving them with the horrible-pay very insecure service-industry type jobs guaranteed to lock them into poverty forever.
don_dunstan
I completely agree with you there, but will stipulate that this is a far wider issue than the subject matter at hand (perhaps this belongs in the Economy thread. Apologies to the mods for the digression).
The big end of town have been screwing the system for decades, trying to placate those left behind by promising the benefits of the trickle-down effect. Nup, doesn't happen. If it did, the average working man could still afford a house, a car, utility bills, and an annual holiday to the beach.

You can't be realistically concerned at what you now see as a diminishing amount of highly paid, highly skilled manufacturing jobs if you acknowledge that it all started with privatisation/casualisation a few decades ago, and not just since windmills starting being built.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
The battery is providing in this case primary frequency control which is about stabilizing frequency immediately a deviation is detected from 50 hz. All plants connected to the grid would have seen this deviation and Gladstone still did its job of also reacting. The article recognizes this and specifically says the battery did not prevent a blackout.

I don’t think the battery is intended to be a replacement for a large continuing loss of power from the grid, this is what secondary response is for where other partially loaded but slower to move load generation comes in. Unlike the guardian article which was full of inaccuracies this renew economy article seems to report the facts.

Cheers
arctic
Thanks mate, I was beginning to think that I was the only person on these pages that actually understood the content of the article.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
You can't be realistically concerned at what you now see as a diminishing amount of highly paid, highly skilled manufacturing jobs if you acknowledge that it all started with privatisation/casualisation a few decades ago, and not just since windmills starting being built.
DirtyBallast
Yeah well of course it started with Hawke and Keating - pretending to be the worker's friend while knifing them in the back - but why is it that the poorest people are the ones who are generally expected to pick up the tab for the transition to the miracle carbon-free economy through high electricity tariffs while the wealthier people get rewarded with subsidies to make solar energy at the times of day when its not needed anyway? Like trying to phase out petrol engines in the next 10-15 years by legislation as they're presently trying to do in the EU - okay if you can buy a new car but what if you can't?

It's impossible to view the rush to carbon-free as anything other than a scam to advantage the wealthy over the poor - like they need any more help than they already get.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Yeah well of course it started with Hawke and Keating - pretending to be the worker's friend while knifing them in the back - but why is it that the poorest people are the ones who are generally expected to pick up the tab for the transition to the miracle carbon-free economy through high electricity tariffs while the wealthier people get rewarded with subsidies to make solar energy at the times of day when its not needed anyway? Like trying to phase out petrol engines in the next 10-15 years by legislation as they're presently trying to do in the EU - okay if you can buy a new car but what if you can't?

It's impossible to view the rush to carbon-free as anything other than a scam to advantage the wealthy over the poor - like they need any more help than they already get.
don_dunstan
I think they are now targeting diesels over petrol, now that most cars in the EU are actually diesel because it was promoted previously more environmentally friendly and lower cost. Now the  brains trust has said diesel is the root of all evil and must go.

On the carbon free BS, I think you will find most people with at least some money to alot feel differently, in that its a social equalisation scheme to transfer money from the wealthy to the poor nations, either through direct hand outs or jobs from wealthy countries to poorer countries.

Gillard's CO2 tax scheme in Australia was designed to tax higher power users and then compensate lower income users.

Meanwhile in EU, one steel company was paid to shut down thus banking CO2 credits from EU emissions trading scheme, then relocated the plant to India and received more funding for creating jobs in India from another EU department, then received more money from EU because his plant in India produced less CO2 than others in India before even starting up. Made an absolute fortune putting 1500 Scot's out of work. I'll see if I can find the link again it was a few years back.  

Back home, Liddel power stations is announced to close, but AGL need a govt subsidy of around $200M (if I recall) to open a solar farm in its place that will produce just 2% of the output of Liddel and only during the day. It would cost $2B to replace Liddel with a modern coal fired power station.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

I swore I wouldn't come back to this thread because it just gets up my goat!
don_dunstan

As did I, but think I'll have another crack at it given calibre of the current participants ...

One thing I usually like about the Railpage Lounge is - unlike most forums - it's not an echo chamber of people with like minded views.  We generally have a common interest in rail, but can disagree wildly on everything else.

If we look at a modern bench mark in Dubai, they are building a 4 unit 2400MW coal fired power station with about 45% efficiency using Australian black coal from NSW/Qld. Construction time for unit 1 is just under 3 years then each new unit comes on line every 12 mths or so. The plant is a PPP with a contracted price of US$42/MW. Go through much of the anit coal propaganda and you will find time frames and costs much larger.
RTT_Rules

I wouldn't mind seeing an English Language link to this if you have one.  

$USD42/MWh ($56 AUD/MWh) is incredibly cheap for a steam fired turbine.  
Not as cheap as this of course: http://reneweconomy.com.au/stockyard-hill-wind-farm-locks-in-finance-after-setting-record-low-price-82932/  

And certainly not as cheap as this: https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/07/the-birth-of-a-new-era-in-solar-pv-record-low-cost-on-saudi-solar-project-bid/

Or even this: http://reneweconomy.com.au/contract-worlds-cheapest-solar-power-signed-dubai-mega-project-80498/

From the same allegedly bias author (and given the article was written for reneweconomy not an entirely unjustified criticism), an assessment of Australia's coal filed power plant fleet:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/clean-australias-clean-coal-power-stations-14224/

(I've been reading RenewEconomy quite a bit since this thread pricked my interest in this topic.  I'm well aware it needs to be read with a bit of caution)

Based on the numbers published there, I make it that Aussie coal fired plants achieve roughly an efficiency of ~2.25 MWh of power sent out per tonne of coal burnt.  At USD95/tonne for quality coal, I make that ~$56/MWh just for the fuel.  

If this is any guide (https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/NTNDP/2016/Data_Sources/AEMO_Coal-Outputs_20160512_.xlsx) the main thing keeping coal fired power viable are long term supply contracts for fuel at below current market rates.

Here is a podcast from the CEO of AEMO.  Admittedly prepared for reneweconomy again, but it's the CEO of AEMO, not some lefty or green think thank. http://reneweconomy.com.au/podcast/energy-insiders-podcast-december-11/

Australia will be a world leader in the transition to a smarter and cheaper renewables based-grid, and trying to resist that change is like trying to stop the internet.

.. the amazing development of producing electricity at zero marginal cost ...
Australian Energy Market Operator CEO Audrey Zibelman.



At the same time RE should only be allowed to bid into the market if it bids a guaranteed 24/7 supply or a separate peak supply, again they must bid and supply, failure to supply they should be penalised. By doing this, RE wind/solar will be forced to invest in GT, Diesel gen, battery or small scale hydro to provide a back up source and hence again provide the energy sector with security of supply and price.
RTT_RULES


IMHO this "guaranteed 24/7" is something of a new requirement that's being made of RE, and I think it's happened as a consequence of RE recenlty becoming cheaper than traditional FF generation.

But I think an equivalent argument can be made that coal - or really any for of fuel fired steam turbine - has (almost) exactly the same problem as RE.  Steam Turbine generation takes up to 24 hours to reach optimal output and efficiency.  It simply can't respond to changes in demand.  Yet no-one is demanding that coal generators should be required to store the excess power generated overnight.

The biggest problem fuel fired steam turbine generation has (regardless of the fuel), is that (unlike RE) if no-one wants to buy your power, you are not just lumbered with just the opportunity cost of not selling your electricity - there are very *real* and substantial costs (fuel) of that production.

ATM the FF generation industry deals with this with OCGT/"peaking" gas generation, but also supported by the interstate interconnectors as well as Tassy and Snowy Hydro.

The fact is we don't need 24x7 constant generation.  We need (very roughly) 60% of our power is needed during the day, 25% at night and ~15% can be scheduled for whenever it's convenient/cheap for the generator.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Hi,
For details of the Dubai coal fired power station
https://www.dewa.gov.ae/en/about-dewa/news-and-media/press-and-news/latest-news/2016/11/dewa-begins-construction-of-2400mw-hassyan-clean-coal-power-station

This includes references to the contracted power price.

English summary
- 2400MW
- 4 turbines, first coming on line around 2020
- burning Aussie coal (mostly)
- Efficiency of ~45%
- Contracted sale price is USD$42/MWh

The current domestic power price for Dubai residents (note I didn't say citizens, yes there is a difference, a huge difference) is $AUD0.10/kWh (USD$80/MWh). This is what I pay.

https://www.dewa.gov.ae/en/customer/services/consumption-services/tariff
(if you look up you need to also add the fuel surcharge)

So yes the prices are real, remember there are no subsidies here for non citizens, everything is at commercial rates.

I don't know, but I doubt even one Australian coal fired power station operates above 35% efficiency due to their age.

Longterm contracts always yield lower prices, look at the gas sector landing Oz CSM gas into Japan cheaper than spot price in Oz.

I'm not sure if Australia has yet to force the RE to provide 24/7 power or guaranteed supply at fixed times of the day, other countries have.

While there are aspects of RE that are cheaper than coal, its usually on not guaranteed supply. Once you add the cost or back up power or storage, the price often doubles, if not more.

Yes we don't need 100% of our supply 24/7/365, but after sundown, the bulk of the power used on the east coast is from coal as solar goes dead and winds die during the dark hours. Snowy Hydro goes into pump back and Tassie Hydro winds back and imports power. 60% is still the bulk of the output, hydro, peaking gas, solar/wind, battery and increasing coal out put manages the day.

AEMO CEO, (American) Audry Zilbelman is a known RE promoter and Greenie and her appointment is somewhat controversial. So if she screws it up, she takes her bonus and heads back to the states.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Hi,
For details of the Dubai coal fired power station
https://www.dewa.gov.ae/en/about-dewa/news-and-media/press-and-news/latest-news/2016/11/dewa-begins-construction-of-2400mw-hassyan-clean-coal-power-station

This includes references to the contracted power price.

English summary
- 2400MW
- 4 turbines, first coming on line around 2020
- burning Aussie coal (mostly)
- Efficiency of ~45%
- Contracted sale price is USD$42/MWh
RTT_Rules


Thanks for that.  From the press release ...

The consortium bid a Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of USD 4.241 cents per kilowatt (kW), based on May 2015 coal prices
"HE Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD & CEO of DEWA"

That makes a lot more sense.  2015 was close to the low point in the recent history of the price of thermal coal: ~$50-60 USA/tonne vs $90-100 now (and earlier in the decade).

It's just a guess, but 45% is probably the (peak) thermal efficiency of this plant, if it's anything like other coal fired plants it'll also have a capacity factor of ~80% (self consumption, inefficiencies starting and stopping, unsold power etc).  But at 2015 coal prices $42/MHh sounds about right for a HELE plant.



The current domestic power price for Dubai residents (note I didn't say citizens, yes there is a difference, a huge difference) is $AUD0.10/kWh (USD$80/MWh). This is what I pay.
RTT_Rules

This is below, in some places well below, the wholesale price (as distinct from cost) of distribution in Australia.

Retail power in Australia couldn't possibly be less than twice this price, even if we switched to a fleet of perpetual motion machines for generation.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
...IMHO this "guaranteed 24/7" is something of a new requirement that's being made of RE, and I think it's happened as a consequence of RE recenlty becoming cheaper than traditional FF generation.

But I think an equivalent argument can be made that coal - or really any for of fuel fired steam turbine - has (almost) exactly the same problem as RE.  Steam Turbine generation takes up to 24 hours to reach optimal output and efficiency.  It simply can't respond to changes in demand.  Yet no-one is demanding that coal generators should be required to store the excess power generated overnight.

The biggest problem fuel fired steam turbine generation has (regardless of the fuel), is that (unlike RE) if no-one wants to buy your power, you are not just lumbered with just the opportunity cost of not selling your electricity - there are very *real* and substantial costs (fuel) of that production.

ATM the FF generation industry deals with this with OCGT/"peaking" gas generation, but also supported by the interstate interconnectors as well as Tassy and Snowy Hydro.

The fact is we don't need 24x7 constant generation.  We need (very roughly) 60% of our power is needed during the day, 25% at night and ~15% can be scheduled for whenever it's convenient/cheap for the generator.
djf01
You’ve picked up on some good points. I’m not anti-coal but I don’t see a significant future for it. RE will go from strength to strength and I understand why the fossil lobby wants to frustrate its rollout. There's nothing new here, it's self-interest as always.

As for RTT’s world. Dubai is an extremely wealthy but a small place both in size and population. How many actual citizens will be involved in its construction and operation, what are the financing arrangements? I don’t believe you can simply quote the same costs for this country.

Here’s the thing though. This country doesn’t rely on Indian and Filipino imported workers. Perhaps if our manufacturing industries were allowed to they mightn’t need to look overseas.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Hi Guys,
On Dubai and comparison from Australia.

1) thanks for picking up the leveraged price from 2015, don't forget they also have to pay for port and shipping costs, originally the coal was supposed to come from Pakistan, but the quality wasn't good enough to achieve the emission targets. What I was told, they want the best money can buy so as not to get a bad rep for building a coal fired power station which is being built due to the limitations in gas reserves for Dubai (not UAE), for example as of the 1st the smelter is being switched from Dubai to AD gas. For UAE, the AD govt is building a nuclear power station to reduce the countries CO2 emissions.

Dubai has 2 main power stations, Jebel Ali which is largest of its type in world, combined cycle gas with tertiary waste heat recovery for production of desal water and inland peaking open cycle gas turbine.

Currently 1/3 of AD and Dubai's gas comes from Qatar and the contract is due to expire in about 10 years, for a number of reasons they don't want to renew.

2) Domestic prices, the emirate is 85% expat, we get near zero subsidies, there is no welfare for anyone. The 5% GST started this week and includes food and petrol is sold at the world oil price and changed once a month. If anything we susidise the Nationals, although I understand their power and water prices have resin from near free to reduced rates. Dubai has very limited gas and oil reserves and these make up less than 5% of the Emirates GDP, aluminium used to be 3 x that, Emirates, FlyDubai, Dnata, DP World being far higher. So the domestic power and water price (desal water from waste heat at power station) is likely truely commercial.

Dubai is also building a 1GW installed PV solar farm to add to their "greenness" credentials.

3) Wages, the 'old cheap Indian, Paki and Pinoy labour comment is not so correct. I was going through the numbers yesterday with my National Female boss comparing an Australian Smelter Operator wages and costs with here. Yes their base rates here are low, but there is a offset.

Here company must provide accommodation, (ours includes a pool, foot ball ground, cricket ground and is beach side), AC, power and water, all food, transport to work site, 5 weeks AL + 3 days Local Leave, annual airfare home paid at Emirates rates, Visa costs which are similar in cost to Australia, full medical insurance etc.

You also have productivity factor, ie how many people does it take to do a job. In Construction they typically employ up to 10 x what you would employ in Australia. For Operations we have leaned up quite alot, but its still low, so about half. I've been told in construction due to automation and technology changes, the full employment costs of Indian/Paki labour are approaching Eastern European/NZ etc and many work sites now recruit for complex tasks.

On flip side we have target of 20% nationals, all of which earn 25 - 30% more in full employment costs. Many Nationals have Expat shaddows who are "training" them. So more than 2 x the cost. Overall Dubai's average income is similar to Australia these days, although often some reported figures don't count expat salaries.

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