So what's going to replace coal?

 

Pinned post created by dthead

Posted 2 years ago

  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Incidentally... come to think of it... my bus was late this morning - climate change? Harvey Weinstein sexually molested all of those women and got away with it for years - and now that I think of it, that could also be a pointer of the fact that we're undergoing climate change. My cat is sleeping later in the day - is that climate change do you think? Probably is, seems most unlike her so it's gotta be some kind of external variable I haven't observed yet... climate change.
Yep, I get all that, Laughing but incidentally... come to think of it... RTT_Rules has confirmed that union militancy has not been a factor in widespread blackouts since renewables have been on the scene.

Hmmm.....Wink

Nahh, I'm just being facetious. I just wish that more of us that grace these pages had the capacity to differentiate between correlation and causation.
DirtyBallast
To use your analysis of reliability, every day at this time I look at the  http://reneweconomy.com.au/nem-watch/ website for power output by the various generation types from each state. For solar each day its the same old story.

Large Solar is 2MW
Small Solar is 0MW

Hence I declare solar unreliable because each day at this time there is always only 2MW of output combined!

Cool

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  allan Chief Commissioner

Cum hoc ergo propter hoc.
Aaron
Hardly plain laguage, and false, besides...
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
RTT_Rules, climate study well predates ANYONE alive today, it is not new, and if Flannery was interested in climate before he realised he could set himself up to make money from it, could have studied in a far closer field than evolutionary biology.

Flannery is only slightly more qualified than the other totally unqualified non scientists who usually like to chime in - everyone’s favourite - the economists.
  allan Chief Commissioner

I just wish that more of us that grace these pages had the capacity to differentiate between correlation and causation.
"Correlation implies association, but not causation. Conversely, causation implies association, but not correlation." Discuss...

How many philosophical statisticians hang out here? Is there a plain laguage translation...
allan
I learned this stuff, once. It's slowly coming back... A correlation is a linear association, but an association, none the less. Causation does not imply correlation, but a strong correlation is good evidence for causation.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Nahh, that's ok, you just keep the union-militancy-affecting-supply myth in your repertoire; the rest of us will just carry on.
DirtyBallast
I think RTT_Rules has a personal history related to the SEQEB strikes?

But I have to agree with you - militant unionism is dead and buried in this country. If it wasn't then we wouldn't be having declining living standards.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I blame climate change for the rat trying to enter my villa last night, the two of them lived in my yard for a while now quite happily keeping to their side of the yard leaving us mostly alone however recently, now it has been coming inside, so I'm sure this is in fear of extreme weather by climate change, why else enter the house? As it crossed the line we had to kill it, so climate change will now continue unnoticed and no impact on us.
RTT_Rules
I don't want those things in my backyard under any circumstances. My cat used to be a stray, her savagery towards rodents is something to behold - it's a good reason to have a cat in my opinion.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
A correlation of any strength is not evidence of causation.

Famously, piles of money were wasted because epidemiologists (who clearly ought to have known better) because they saw a ‘strong’ correlation between HRT therapy in women and reduced heart disease. Turns out the reverse was actually true.

The causation of the reduced heart disease in HRT women? Socioeconomics of women who could afford HRT AND therefore afforded themselves better general health care - including for cardio health.
  allan Chief Commissioner

Statisticians, these days, would standardise for this, but I'm not saying that you are wrong. My texts have been up in the rafters for quite some years.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
You have taken the first paragraph out of  context. Political, Industrial and weather based events impacting on generation supply causing grid wide load reductions I'm looking back 30 years.
Well, we all know about the weather event in SA, and the un-cooperative response from a non-government department to respond. We are all still waiting for you to post a link to industrial action causing widespread blackouts in the past 30 years?

Please?
1985 SEQEB was the one that came to mind, yes outside 30 years just my bad, there maybe others, don't know, don't care. The context I was referring to above was pretty much from early 80's to date, ie starting with NSW early 80's power crisis. Won't debate it further here, if you want too start a new thread.
Nahh, that's ok, you just keep the union-militancy-affecting-supply myth in your repertoire; the rest of us will just carry on.
I love the way you make something out of nothing.

I said out side political, industrial and weather based events on generation, what has caused grid wide load reductions to label coal unreliable. So rather you coming back with your evidence that coal is unreliable, you want to focus if one of the three I used as an example of "external factors" weather its valid or not.

Which by default means you agree coal is reliable as an energy source!

Are we done now?
RTT_Rules
No.

These were your actual words:

One more time
Australia's legacy power supply based on Coal with some gas and hydro has proven itself to be a non-complex, cheap and reliable source of energy, so much so its what the nation and most of our energy intensive industry is built on. Large scale blackouts typically linked to political, industrial (union) and weather based events.


You have twisted and turned ever since.

I have consistently maintained that the unpredictability of generating hardware malfunctions, i.e. unplanned outages, makes coal fired generation less reliable than it should be. I have also provided a link to a report that quotes the manager of Loy Yang A saying that their reliability is only at 85% and it will cost billions to try and improve that.

People are foolish if they continue to believe that coal fired generation is anywhere near 100% reliable.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Incidentally... come to think of it... my bus was late this morning - climate change? Harvey Weinstein sexually molested all of those women and got away with it for years - and now that I think of it, that could also be a pointer of the fact that we're undergoing climate change. My cat is sleeping later in the day - is that climate change do you think? Probably is, seems most unlike her so it's gotta be some kind of external variable I haven't observed yet... climate change.
Yep, I get all that, Laughing but incidentally... come to think of it... RTT_Rules has confirmed that union militancy has not been a factor in widespread blackouts since renewables have been on the scene.

Hmmm.....Wink

Nahh, I'm just being facetious. I just wish that more of us that grace these pages had the capacity to differentiate between correlation and causation.
To use your analysis of reliability, every day at this time I look at the  http://reneweconomy.com.au/nem-watch/ website for power output by the various generation types from each state. For solar each day its the same old story.

Large Solar is 2MW
Small Solar is 0MW

Hence I declare solar unreliable because each day at this time there is always only 2MW of output combined!

Cool
RTT_Rules
I can predict with 100% accuracy that solar PV generation does not work at night.

Now, I have a challenge for you. Please predict with 100% accuracy when the next coal fired generating unit will trip out.

You cannot keep pretending that predictability is not a major factor when considering the reliability of the above.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Nahh, that's ok, you just keep the union-militancy-affecting-supply myth in your repertoire; the rest of us will just carry on.
I think RTT_Rules has a personal history related to the SEQEB strikes?

But I have to agree with you - militant unionism is dead and buried in this country. If it wasn't then we wouldn't be having declining living standards.
don_dunstan
No, I lived in NSW then and in early high school. Barely remember seeing it on TV news and didn't give a crap then, nor now.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Incidentally... come to think of it... my bus was late this morning - climate change? Harvey Weinstein sexually molested all of those women and got away with it for years - and now that I think of it, that could also be a pointer of the fact that we're undergoing climate change. My cat is sleeping later in the day - is that climate change do you think? Probably is, seems most unlike her so it's gotta be some kind of external variable I haven't observed yet... climate change.
Yep, I get all that, Laughing but incidentally... come to think of it... RTT_Rules has confirmed that union militancy has not been a factor in widespread blackouts since renewables have been on the scene.

Hmmm.....Wink

Nahh, I'm just being facetious. I just wish that more of us that grace these pages had the capacity to differentiate between correlation and causation.
To use your analysis of reliability, every day at this time I look at the  http://reneweconomy.com.au/nem-watch/ website for power output by the various generation types from each state. For solar each day its the same old story.

Large Solar is 2MW
Small Solar is 0MW

Hence I declare solar unreliable because each day at this time there is always only 2MW of output combined!

Cool
I can predict with 100% accuracy that solar PV generation does not work at night.

Now, I have a challenge for you. Please predict with 100% accuracy when the next coal fired generating unit will trip out.

You cannot keep pretending that predictability is not a major factor when considering the reliability of the above.
DirtyBallast
Who really gives a crap?

What I know is that the network in the era of mostly coal and gas sourced (basically un changed in Qld) was more reliable in keeping the lights on and cheaper than what we have today. Qld govt which still owns most of the large scale generation is enjoying ongoing power receipts in sending roughly 500MW an hour across the border. Roughly $1-2M/day. There is almost no wind capacity in Qld and minimal large scale solar. Domestic solar there is wide spread because it makes sense as it aligns with AC demand and rising power prices and shrinking installation costs.

The ~500MW is coming from Boyne Smelters cutting production due to excessive power prices and gas fired installation from CSM and other. Some of which couldn't even be bothered with extra cost of building closed circuit power stations which operate at +50% efficiency, rather saving money and just building open cycles at 35% and also capital and operating costs of a steam system.  So basically no better than coal fired in CO2 emissions.

South of the border, gas has been rolled out quickly, but off-set by closing of coal fired generation and hence falling behind overall. Even Hazellwood which was limping along in its final couple years at barely 1000MW needs a large number of gas turbines to equal its output.

No one ever said a single coal turbine was 100% reliable, the argument has always been (despite you trying to twist it your own way) is that the coal as a grid is inherently more reliable as a grid than wind and solar combined.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I can predict with 100% accuracy that solar PV generation does not work at night.

DirtyBallast

Great, your out of the closet if denial, now how you going to keep the lights and industry running (viably) in a 20-25GW grid?
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Cum hoc ergo propter hoc.
Hardly plain laguage, and false, besides...
allan
It's been a while since I have studied Latin, nonetheless, 'Cum hoc ergo propter hoc' is 'with this, therefore because of this' - that is exactly the statement surrounding two things occurring, therefore one must be causing the other.

Statisticians, these days, would standardise for this, but I'm not saying that you are wrong. My texts have been up in the rafters for quite some years.
allan
The HRT and decreased CVD link was only thought to be true until very recently, I am not sure what you mean by 'these days' but a lot of people must have learned about false causation/correlation links very recently, because I found mention of HRT and decreased CVD in 2012, have we really educated everyone in the last 6 years? I don't think so.

For the record, statisticians are possibly some of the worst culprits at false correlation/causation links, because often instead of merely looking at the numbers as a statistician might, you need to understand the root cause of the conditions before making a causative link. There is no way to 'standardise' away from this, correlation is a simple mathematical formula that will spit out a number that is by definition about +/-1 for functions that move about at the same rate, and closer to 0 if they move about totally independently - that still does not tell you CAUSE, for cause you have to go looking at other things.

Consider plotting y=x and y= x+1, then taking there correlation coefficient - it will be 1, perfect correlation, but does y=x CAUSE y=x+1? Of course not, they're just two arbitrary functions (straight lines in this case) drawn on a piece of paper.

If you plot head and tail results for flipping a coin you will get a correlation coefficient of -1, that implies one correlates perfectly with not the other. A head result doesn't cause no tail, and a tail result doesn't cause no head, both are determined (that is CAUSED) by all sorts of external factors surrounding the random effects on a two possible draw.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Something that might be of interest

Ergon Energy (Regional Qld power retailer owned by state govt) has introduced (don't know when, could be quite old) a solar feed in tariff specifically aimed at those who want to export solar power after 3pm - 7pm into the grid. Obviously targeting not only those with very much west facing solar panels but I assume mostly those with battery storage or at least the growing number who will have battery storage in near future. You can basically double your feed in tariff from around 7.4c to 13.6c .

https://www.ergon.com.au/retail/residential/tariffs-and-prices/solar-feed-in-tariff

Seems fair enough as this is typically when energy prices are the highest along with demand coupled with faded PV solar input as the day comes to an end.

However also interesting is that the timings don't line up with their Optional "Time of use" tariff 12A where power goes from 23c/kWh to 67c/kWh between 3pm and 9:30pm. This being an option over the normal General use tariff 11, with a flat rate of 28.5c/kWh.

https://www.ergon.com.au/retail/residential/tariffs-and-prices/time-of-use-tariffs

So on one hand they will reward you for feeding in extxra power during the late afternoon/early evening when demand is at its highest and solar input near zero, but then after 7pm if you need to pull from the grid from 7pm to 9:30pm you get penalised in a big way.

You would think the two tariffs would be aligned so a user with large PV solar installation and battery storage would be able to use both the "timed solar feed in" tariff AND the "time of use" tariff without being stung.

Seems Ergon want their cake and to eat it as well.
  neillfarmer Chief Train Controller

The assertion that coal fired power stations are inherently unreliable is wrong. They are close to 100% if normal maintenance and operating procedures are followed. Stanwell Corporation regularly runs at 97+% reliability, 99.2 % this summer. I see their return on investment was 30%. Not bad for an obsolete smoke stack industry. My roof top solar barely makes 9%.
Neill Farmer.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/04/coalition-energy-lunacy-deepens/



An interesting read
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
You beat me to it: I was going to reference the other interesting development mentioned in that link which is the development of a pro-coal movement within the Coalition called the "Monash forum" (a reference to General John Monash who developed Victoria's Gippsland coal-fields). The Australian reported on it yesterday:

Malcolm Turnbull faces a challenge to his signature energy ­policy from a group of Coalition backbenchers, including Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin ­Andrews, who have formed a lobby group to promote government support for the construction of new coal-fired power stations.

Liberal MP Craig Kelly and Nationals MP George Christensen yesterday claimed more than 20 government MPs had joined the newly created Monash Forum, named after World War I military hero John Monash, a key figure in opening Victoria’s ­Latrobe Valley to coal production.

The Australian was told last night that Barnaby Joyce had thrown his support behind the new informal political faction along with up to 11 other Nationals. The former deputy prime minister did not respond to ­requests for comment.

Personally I think we need coal-fired capacity in the system but I'm not going to argue endlessly about it.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
As it stands Don, the last of the current lot of coal fired power stations are due to be phased out in the early 2040's. So it's not like they are going to disappear over night, they just wont be replaced with new coal powered generators.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

You beat me to it: I was going to reference the other interesting development mentioned in that link which is the development of a pro-coal movement within the Coalition called the "Monash forum" (a reference to General John Monash who developed Victoria's Gippsland coal-fields). The Australian reported on it yesterday:

Malcolm Turnbull faces a challenge to his signature energy ­policy from a group of Coalition backbenchers, including Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin ­Andrews, who have formed a lobby group to promote government support for the construction of new coal-fired power stations.

Liberal MP Craig Kelly and Nationals MP George Christensen yesterday claimed more than 20 government MPs had joined the newly created Monash Forum, named after World War I military hero John Monash, a key figure in opening Victoria’s ­Latrobe Valley to coal production.

The Australian was told last night that Barnaby Joyce had thrown his support behind the new informal political faction along with up to 11 other Nationals. The former deputy prime minister did not respond to ­requests for comment.

Personally I think we need coal-fired capacity in the system but I'm not going to argue endlessly about it.
don_dunstan
Floggin' a dead horse really.  If we're going to burn something, then burn our rubbish instead (and earn $50-100 per tonne in the process instead of creating mountains with it):
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
What an embarrassment to John Monash.
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
Gota love the political lobbyists. The “Monash” groups excuse is that it shall drive down power prices. And yet it is full of climate change deniers stating that coal is good for everything  Idea. A bunch of nutcases if you ask me.
  allan Chief Commissioner
  allan Chief Commissioner

Meanwhile, in Saudi, they want to sell oil, not burn it. https://phys.org/news/2018-04-oil-solar-saudis-renewable-energy.html
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

Meanwhile, in Saudi, they want to sell oil, not burn it. https://phys.org/news/2018-04-oil-solar-saudis-renewable-energy.html
allan
It seems some progress is being made with nuclear fusion. Once that process is perfected there will be more energy available than you can poke a stick at. Although I hope the container for the fusion process is reliable because I would hate to see something hotter than the sun get loose.

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