Melbourne Airport Rail Link

 
  John.Z Assistant Commissioner

Note subtle cahnge in SRL maps recently,  changed from a direct line Sunshine to Werribee to  .......

Sunshine via Deer Park,  Wyndham Vale, Black Forest Road, then looping back to Browns Road on the original Geelong line to reach Werribee.
kuldalai


This map has been floating around for a year, it's nothing new. Until Stage 2 is built to the Airport, I take anything west of that with a grain of salt. The planning clearly hasn't been done, and with MARL now going via Sunshine, SRL has little need to duplicate.

edit: Note how this map clearly shows MARL and "Metro Lines" where SRL is shown on the first map. At this stage, there is no SRL west of the Airport planned.

Sponsored advertisement

  kuldalai Chief Commissioner

Do you have a before and after you could post/link for our gratification?
Djebel


Note this now means effectively SRL as new construction now means Cheltenham to  Box Hill,  Box Hill to Broadmeadows and Broadmeadows to the Airport.  The rest of it  Airport to Sunshine and Sunshine to Wyndham Vale already exists, and the loop linking Wyndham Vale round to Werribee was proposed well before SRL became a pre-election though bubble in 2018.  Now in reality if and when the Box Hill - Broady - Airport bit ever gets built doubt there will be through trains other than  Cheltenham to Airport at best.  The rest you will change at the Airport and / or Sunshine.  No big deal how many people would tarvel right around the whole outer circle ?  very few in reality.  Secondly we in Melbourne are going to have to get used to changing to get to our destination by public transport.  No big deal with well co-ordinated services, attractive interchanges and turn up and go frequencies.  All something sadly missing to the larger degree currently in Melbourne albeit, that is what PTV and DOT are BOTH there to do -  offer a well co-ordinated NETWORK of public transport services operating to turn up and go  frequencies with superior passenger information and attractive passenger friendly interchanges.  A little more focus on getting tne short term basics right, ahead of  nice to have big budget projects like SRL. What use is it having SRL if the basic core network it connects with is sub standard to start with ?
  mejhammers1 Chief Commissioner

Location: Banned
Do you have a before and after you could post/link for our gratification?


Note this now means effectively SRL as new construction now means Cheltenham to  Box Hill,  Box Hill to Broadmeadows and Broadmeadows to the Airport.  The rest of it  Airport to Sunshine and Sunshine to Wyndham Vale already exists, and the loop linking Wyndham Vale round to Werribee was proposed well before SRL became a pre-election though bubble in 2018.  Now in reality if and when the Box Hill - Broady - Airport bit ever gets built doubt there will be through trains other than  Cheltenham to Airport at best.  The rest you will change at the Airport and / or Sunshine.  No big deal how many people would tarvel right around the whole outer circle ?  very few in reality.  Secondly we in Melbourne are going to have to get used to changing to get to our destination by public transport.  No big deal with well co-ordinated services, attractive interchanges and turn up and go frequencies.  All something sadly missing to the larger degree currently in Melbourne albeit, that is what PTV and DOT are BOTH there to do -  offer a well co-ordinated NETWORK of public transport services operating to turn up and go  frequencies with superior passenger information and attractive passenger friendly interchanges.  A little more focus on getting tne short term basics right, ahead of  nice to have big budget projects like SRL. What use is it having SRL if the basic core network it connects with is sub standard to start with ?
kuldalai
Totally agree. I was in Hobart and their Bus Network is far superior to ours.


Michael
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Albion to Airport West will have a line speed of 130 km/h, and Airport West (where an immediate station might eventually be built) to the Airport terminal will be 115 km/h apparently.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Albion to Airport West will have a line speed of 130 km/h, and Airport West (where an immediate station might eventually be built) to the Airport terminal will be 115 km/h apparently.
"Carnot"
If it's ever built.
  John.Z Assistant Commissioner

If it's ever built.
Valvegear
The station or the airport rail line?
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
If it's ever built.
The station or the airport rail line?
John.Z
Both
  railblogger Chief Commissioner

Location: At the back of the train, quitely doing exactly what you'd expect.
If it's ever built.
The station or the airport rail line?
Both
Dangersdan707
Given Andrews' current track record with infrastructure projects I'd say the odds of both being built are higher than average.
  Lockie91 Assistant Commissioner

Albion to Airport West will have a line speed of 130 km/h, and Airport West (where an immediate station might eventually be built) to the Airport terminal will be 115 km/h apparently.
Carnot
I would imagine the station will come several years after the gloss has worn off the Airport Line. Everyone is obsessed with limited stops and running time, keeping this as close to 30 minutes. Few years after construction, a station might be built adding a horrifying 90 seconds to the running time for Airport services, giving 30,000 people access to a train service for the first time.

Im not sure if anyone obsessing with the runtime has ever caught a taxi from the City to the Airport in peak hour. Best of luck trying to get the airport in under an hour. Time and time again, airport services around the world have shown that dedicated express services do not work as they do not draw enough patronage to become profitable without insane fairs.

Thinking further ahead, when SRL will one day grace the West. It would be possible for SRL services to do a couple of suburban stops, giving MARL back its express status.

I assume to be dead and buried by this time.

Lockie
  John.Z Assistant Commissioner

I would imagine the station will come several years after the gloss has worn off the Airport Line. Everyone is obsessed with limited stops and running time, keeping this as close to 30 minutes. Few years after construction, a station might be built adding a horrifying 90 seconds to the running time for Airport services, giving 30,000 people access to a train service for the first time.

Im not sure if anyone obsessing with the runtime has ever caught a taxi from the City to the Airport in peak hour. Best of luck trying to get the airport in under an hour. Time and time again, airport services around the world have shown that dedicated express services do not work as they do not draw enough patronage to become profitable without insane fairs.

Thinking further ahead, when SRL will one day grace the West. It would be possible for SRL services to do a couple of suburban stops, giving MARL back its express status.

I assume to be dead and buried by this time.

Lockie
Lockie91
Agreed that there should be stations for local passengers, one on each side of the ring road if not two.

The SRL won't be going via Sunshine if it ever goes west of the airport. MARL uses BG and 1500V DC. SRL won't use either of those.
  Lockie91 Assistant Commissioner

I would imagine the station will come several years after the gloss has worn off the Airport Line. Everyone is obsessed with limited stops and running time, keeping this as close to 30 minutes. Few years after construction, a station might be built adding a horrifying 90 seconds to the running time for Airport services, giving 30,000 people access to a train service for the first time.

Im not sure if anyone obsessing with the runtime has ever caught a taxi from the City to the Airport in peak hour. Best of luck trying to get the airport in under an hour. Time and time again, airport services around the world have shown that dedicated express services do not work as they do not draw enough patronage to become profitable without insane fairs.

Thinking further ahead, when SRL will one day grace the West. It would be possible for SRL services to do a couple of suburban stops, giving MARL back its express status.

I assume to be dead and buried by this time.

Lockie
Agreed that there should be stations for local passengers, one on each side of the ring road if not two.

The SRL won't be going via Sunshine if it ever goes west of the airport. MARL uses BG and 1500V DC. SRL won't use either of those.
John.Z
While I agree that it should not run via Sunshine and duplicate an existing rail service. For the time being the line on the map says it will. It would be nice to see some realistic plan for the west.

Lockie
  John.Z Assistant Commissioner

While I agree that it should not run via Sunshine and duplicate an existing rail service. For the time being the line on the map says it will. It would be nice to see some realistic plan for the west.

Lockie
Lockie91
The line on the map is all but a placation strategy to say "look we don't forget about you".

There's a reason why the official SRL business case only talks about East and North, there has been no work at all put towards a SRL West route let alone any sort of planning. It's marketing, not a plan.

The western rail plan and Geelong fast rail (maybe even Metro 2) will need to come before any SRL west is even prioritised, but when it does I hope they do it properly.

Airport-Watergardens-Caroline Springs-Tarneit-Williams Landing-Point Cook

All but Caroline Springs and Point Cook have the potential for density and being job clusters (Williams Landing already has Target). Caroline Springs and Point Cook are more for network connectivity.
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
Is there an expectation the airport station will connect with the proposed suburban rail loop ?
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Is there an expectation the airport station will connect with the proposed suburban rail loop ?
freightgate
Since the major point of SRL being in the west IS the airport, then yes .
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
While I agree that it should not run via Sunshine and duplicate an existing rail service. For the time being the line on the map says it will. It would be nice to see some realistic plan for the west.

Lockie
The line on the map is all but a placation strategy to say "look we don't forget about you".

There's a reason why the official SRL business case only talks about East and North, there has been no work at all put towards a SRL West route let alone any sort of planning. It's marketing, not a plan.

The western rail plan and Geelong fast rail (maybe even Metro 2) will need to come before any SRL west is even prioritised, but when it does I hope they do it properly.

Airport-Watergardens-Caroline Springs-Tarneit-Williams Landing-Point Cook

All but Caroline Springs and Point Cook have the potential for density and being job clusters (Williams Landing already has Target). Caroline Springs and Point Cook are more for network connectivity.
John.Z
Since we are talking about lines on a map @John.Z, I thought I would draw yours as a reference point.


The standout differences are.

The expected plan contains
  • no new tracks
  • maybe a new station for Keilor
  • new platform pair at Sunshine.


The ideal full circle contains
  • 35km new track
  • 20km runnels
  • another new 1kn/50m high bridge over the Maribyrnong
  • SIX new stations

$40B+++ is a lot of extra money for what?

A shortcut for Watergarden/Carolyn Springs passengers
  • If any small cohort of passengers are going to be forced into train changing, they would be high up the list.

One suburb (Pt Cook) missing their own backyard station, just 5km away from the existing mainline.
Every other stop already exists

As for duplicate service @Lockie, not really.
It's just sharing the track to squeeze some efficiency. No different to Bendigo & Sunbury.

And the icing on the cake is the disagreement that will not die. STANDARD GUAGE.
The western end of SRL will use a substantial part of the existing network (even if its just the RRL piece) which is BROAD GUAGE.
Why anybody would introduce an incompatibility, for NO benefit at all is just crazy.

cheers
  John.Z Assistant Commissioner

Since we are talking about lines on a map @John.Z, I thought I would draw yours as a reference point.


The standout differences are.

The expected plan contains
  • no new tracks
  • maybe a new station for Keilor
  • new platform pair at Sunshine.


The ideal full circle contains
  • 35km new track
  • 20km runnels
  • another new 1kn/50m high bridge over the Maribyrnong
  • SIX new stations

$40B+++ is a lot of extra money for what?

A shortcut for Watergarden/Carolyn Springs passengers
  • If any small cohort of passengers are going to be forced into train changing, they would be high up the list.

One suburb (Pt Cook) missing their own backyard station, just 5km away from the existing mainline.
Every other stop already exists

As for duplicate service @Lockie, not really.
It's just sharing the track to squeeze some efficiency. No different to Bendigo & Sunbury.

And the icing on the cake is the disagreement that will not die. STANDARD GUAGE.
The western end of SRL will use a substantial part of the existing network (even if its just the RRL piece) which is BROAD GUAGE.
Why anybody would introduce an incompatibility, for NO benefit at all is just crazy.

cheers
justarider
SRL West is not a shortcut to the Airport, although it can be used as such, just like it's a shortcut for those in Reservoir to get to the airport.

It's to connect the major lines and future residential hubs.

To get from Point Cook to Sunbury, you have to get a bus to Williams Landing, then train to Footscray, then train to Sunbury (or bus to Tarneit, VLine to Sunshine).

To get from Caroline Springs to Broadmeadows, you have to change at Footscray and North Melbourne or at Spencer St depending on the time of day.

How are these trips any less valid than going from Dandenong to Southland or Doncaster to Lilydale?
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Since we are talking about lines on a map @John.Z, I thought I would draw yours as a reference point.
SRL West is not a shortcut to the Airport, although it can be used as such, just like it's a shortcut for those in Reservoir to get to the airport.

It's to connect the major lines and future residential hubs.

To get from Point Cook to Sunbury, you have to get a bus to Williams Landing, then train to Footscray, then train to Sunbury (or bus to Tarneit, VLine to Sunshine).

To get from Caroline Springs to Broadmeadows, you have to change at Footscray and North Melbourne or at Spencer St depending on the time of day.

How are these trips any less valid than going from Dandenong to Southland or Doncaster to Lilydale?
John.Z
Are we still playing the "poor me, western burbs" card.

Not every outlying suburb is going to get a train station.
Point Cook is not as big as you make out. Half the size of Knox, and they too have to take a bus to get anywhere.

Pt Cook to Williams Landing, 15min. Poor you, about a thousand worse off places around Melbourne.

Knox to Frankston ( just as unlikely as Pt Cook to Sunbury) 1hr 20. SRL can do nothing for that.
Both are about the same elapsed time,  including interchange waits.

As for Carolyn Springs. With MARL/SRL, they're in the box seat. Train to Sunshine,  then train to Broadmeadows(2 or 3 stops).
Ditto for Watergardens to LaTrobe.

cheers
  John.Z Assistant Commissioner

Are we still playing the "poor me, western burbs" card.

Not every outlying suburb is going to get a train station.
Point Cook is not as big as you make out. Half the size of Knox, and they too have to take a bus to get anywhere.

Pt Cook to Williams Landing, 15min. Poor you, about a thousand worse off places around Melbourne.

Knox to Frankston ( just as unlikely as Pt Cook to Sunbury) 1hr 20. SRL can do nothing for that.
Both are about the same elapsed time,  including interchange waits.

As for Carolyn Springs. With MARL/SRL, they're in the box seat. Train to Sunshine,  then train to Broadmeadows(2 or 3 stops).
Ditto for Watergardens to LaTrobe.

cheers
justarider
You're good, I'll give you that.

Why are we comparing the western suburbs in the 2020s with the eastern suburbs in the 2020s? Half the west has yet to be built out for starters, plenty of paddocks still.

SRL west won't even be funded for planning til the 2040s if not the 2050s, come back then and see whether my route stacks up, think you'll be pleasantly surprised. No different to building SRL east or north in the 1980s, clearly doesn't make sense then but does today.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Are we still playing the "poor me, western burbs" card.

Not every outlying suburb is going to get a train station.
Point Cook is not as big as you make out. Half the size of Knox, and they too have to take a bus to get anywhere.

Pt Cook to Williams Landing, 15min. Poor you, about a thousand worse off places around Melbourne.

Knox to Frankston ( just as unlikely as Pt Cook to Sunbury) 1hr 20. SRL can do nothing for that.
Both are about the same elapsed time,  including interchange waits.

As for Carolyn Springs. With MARL/SRL, they're in the box seat. Train to Sunshine,  then train to Broadmeadows(2 or 3 stops).
Ditto for Watergardens to LaTrobe.

cheers
You're good, I'll give you that.

Why are we comparing the western suburbs in the 2020s with the eastern suburbs in the 2020s? Half the west has yet to be built out for starters, plenty of paddocks still.

SRL west won't even be funded for planning til the 2040s if not the 2050s, come back then and see whether my route stacks up, think you'll be pleasantly surprised. No different to building SRL east or north in the 1980s, clearly doesn't make sense then but does today.
John.Z
I do try.

Looking out to 2050 for the West is an interesting comparison to today's East.

You're correct, plenty more paddocks. Just like there were out East in the 1980's.

2 possibilities.
  • The green wedge remains in a meaningful way, in which case your postulated expansion is moot. Just like the green fence beyond Lilydale/Warrandyte.
  • The burbs continue,  hence we are talking about servicing Manor Lakes, Mt Cottrell, Rockbank etc and even further.


For the second, that's where your map falls down.
  • Point Cook is not much bigger. Nowhere to go except swallow the veggie gardens.
  • The thriving metropolises of Caroline Springs (sparked by then) and Watergardens are well served by what exists today. With a short trip to the Sunshine hub.
  • It is RRL sparked that is the backbone of the outward sprawl, not the old Werribee line.


The awkward dog leg to Sunshine is not any different to what SRL will do at Glen Waverley. A few extra km and minutes to collect a lot more.

Caroline Springs nor Watergardens are not (even 2050) in the same league. St Albans is a better bet.
And Target @ Williams Landing??. Pallllease, when 50,000 work there get back to me.

cheers
  railblogger Chief Commissioner

Location: At the back of the train, quitely doing exactly what you'd expect.
Are we still playing the "poor me, western burbs" card.

Not every outlying suburb is going to get a train station.
Point Cook is not as big as you make out. Half the size of Knox, and they too have to take a bus to get anywhere.

Pt Cook to Williams Landing, 15min. Poor you, about a thousand worse off places around Melbourne.

Knox to Frankston ( just as unlikely as Pt Cook to Sunbury) 1hr 20. SRL can do nothing for that.
Both are about the same elapsed time,  including interchange waits.

As for Carolyn Springs. With MARL/SRL, they're in the box seat. Train to Sunshine,  then train to Broadmeadows(2 or 3 stops).
Ditto for Watergardens to LaTrobe.

cheers
You're good, I'll give you that.

Why are we comparing the western suburbs in the 2020s with the eastern suburbs in the 2020s? Half the west has yet to be built out for starters, plenty of paddocks still.

SRL west won't even be funded for planning til the 2040s if not the 2050s, come back then and see whether my route stacks up, think you'll be pleasantly surprised. No different to building SRL east or north in the 1980s, clearly doesn't make sense then but does today.
I do try.

Looking out to 2050 for the West is an interesting comparison to today's East.

You're correct, plenty more paddocks. Just like there were out East in the 1980's.

2 possibilities.
  • The green wedge remains in a meaningful way, in which case your postulated expansion is moot. Just like the green fence beyond Lilydale/Warrandyte.
  • The burbs continue,  hence we are talking about servicing Manor Lakes, Mt Cottrell, Rockbank etc and even further.


For the second, that's where your map falls down.
  • Point Cook is not much bigger. Nowhere to go except swallow the veggie gardens.
  • The thriving metropolises of Caroline Springs (sparked by then) and Watergardens are well served by what exists today. With a short trip to the Sunshine hub.
  • It is RRL sparked that is the backbone of the outward sprawl, not the old Werribee line.


The awkward dog leg to Sunshine is not any different to what SRL will do at Glen Waverley. A few extra km and minutes to collect a lot more.

Caroline Springs nor Watergardens are not (even 2050) in the same league. St Albans is a better bet.
And Target @ Williams Landing??. Pallllease, when 50,000 work there get back to me.

cheers
justarider
A while ago there was a plan to drastically expand the western suburbs from Manor Lakes all the way to Rockbank.

Then there's the new Amazon Web Services region data hub at Ravenhall, which will bring thousands more workers to the area

This in addition to growth in existing suburbs.

All of which will put significant pressure on existing services, even after Melton/WV are sparked.

The SRL will relieve the pressure on those lines by allowing inter-suburban passenger to avoid the inner-suburban interchanges.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
A while ago there was a plan to drastically expand the western suburbs from Manor Lakes all the way to Rockbank.

Then there's the new Amazon Web Services region data hub at Ravenhall, which will bring thousands more workers to the area

This in addition to growth in existing suburbs.

All of which will put significant pressure on existing services, even after Melton/WV are sparked.

The SRL will relieve the pressure on those lines by allowing inter-suburban passenger to avoid the inner-suburban interchanges.
railblogger
Sounds good, except the @John.z version won't be any different for those expanding suburbs.
Tarneit station is the furthest out that line on the map goes. Ravehall fits in nicely along RRL

I do concede the need to avoid "inner- suburban interchanges".
My mistake, the interchange is actually Deer Park. (about the same distance out, as SRL east)
  railblogger Chief Commissioner

Location: At the back of the train, quitely doing exactly what you'd expect.
The new suburbs and Ravenhall data hub will still put pressure on existing services.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
The new suburbs and Ravenhall data hub will still put pressure on existing services.
railblogger
Pressure. Do you know what that is?

By 2040ish, both RRL and Melton will be full on Metro, with triple the train capacity and triple the frequency.

Surely nobody thinks the current Vline fleet is a suitable commuter service?
  railblogger Chief Commissioner

Location: At the back of the train, quitely doing exactly what you'd expect.
The new suburbs and Ravenhall data hub will still put pressure on existing services.
Pressure. Do you know what that is?

By 2040ish, both RRL and Melton will be full on Metro, with triple the train capacity and triple the frequency.

Surely nobody thinks the current Vline fleet is a suitable commuter service?
justarider
You got me there.
  Yappo Locomotive Fireman

Since we are talking about lines on a map @John.Z, I thought I would draw yours as a reference point.


The standout differences are.

The expected plan contains
  • no new tracks
  • maybe a new station for Keilor
  • new platform pair at Sunshine.


The ideal full circle contains
  • 35km new track
  • 20km runnels
  • another new 1kn/50m high bridge over the Maribyrnong
  • SIX new stations

$40B+++ is a lot of extra money for what?

A shortcut for Watergarden/Carolyn Springs passengers
  • If any small cohort of passengers are going to be forced into train changing, they would be high up the list.

One suburb (Pt Cook) missing their own backyard station, just 5km away from the existing mainline.
Every other stop already exists

As for duplicate service @Lockie, not really.
It's just sharing the track to squeeze some efficiency. No different to Bendigo & Sunbury.

And the icing on the cake is the disagreement that will not die. STANDARD GUAGE.
The western end of SRL will use a substantial part of the existing network (even if its just the RRL piece) which is BROAD GUAGE.
Why anybody would introduce an incompatibility, for NO benefit at all is just crazy.

cheers
SRL West is not a shortcut to the Airport, although it can be used as such, just like it's a shortcut for those in Reservoir to get to the airport.

It's to connect the major lines and future residential hubs.

To get from Point Cook to Sunbury, you have to get a bus to Williams Landing, then train to Footscray, then train to Sunbury (or bus to Tarneit, VLine to Sunshine).

To get from Caroline Springs to Broadmeadows, you have to change at Footscray and North Melbourne or at Spencer St depending on the time of day.

How are these trips any less valid than going from Dandenong to Southland or Doncaster to Lilydale?
John.Z
This 'wider arc route is similar to a suggestion I made earlier and seems more appropriate. Although, not the last section to Point Cook which doesn't seem very feasible for the future?

Unfortunately, I suspect that the western section of SRL will most likely never be built. This will be due to a combination of basic politics & electoral cycles, state debt and other rail transport priorities. As history has shown around Oz, political continuity is very important for these type of major infrastructure projects to be fully implemented.

Firstly, within the next 10 years or so, both the Melton and Wyndham lines will be sparked and operational. Hopefully, not long after Wyndham is then looped around to Werribee thus providing better connectivity in the west. Added with the MARL being completed by 2031/2 (bloody slow), results in decent connectivity via the Sunshine interchange much sooner than the planned SRL timetable.

Secondly, whenever the Liberals are elected to government they will immediately cancel SRL, defer MM2 and whittle down other network extensions all due to a combination of state debt and other transport priorities...ie. new road projects....do I hear East-West Link anyone?. (The cancelling of the much belated Brumby transport plan with MM1 by the newly elected Baillieu in Jan 2011 essentially wasted 4 years for MM1). They will continue with a truncated LXR program which is electorally popular. MARL and HSR to Geelong will of course continue.

The next election is Nov 2022 and current polls suggest that the ALP will be reelected - though who knows what will happen in the post Covid environment especially if Australia has a recession for the 2nd half of 2021 as is expected? However, let's assume that the ALP is reelected.

That would mean roughly the following rail projects commencing construction;

2022 - SRL Eastern section and MARL preliminary works start
2023 - HSR to Geelong construction starts
2024/5 - 1 of Melton or Wyndham electrification works start?
2025 - MM1 opens

Nov 2026 - state election
I would doubt that SRL Northern section would be part of the 2026 platform for the ALP - this would most likely be for the 2030 election platform. Perhaps, only more LXR, Clyde ext and the other of Melton or Wyndham electrification assuming that works had previously commenced on the other. I can't speculate about MM2 but even though there will be lots of post MM1 opening electoral benefits with all the above listed projects U/C it is not difficult to foresee that it is deferred to a later date.
(I'm ignoring other exts such as Wollert, Wallan, Baxter etc assuming that they will be built in the 30s)

Now, a reality check with this electoral forecasting & guessing game. By 2026, the ALP would have won the previous 3 elections and based on state election history in Australia in the last 30-40 years the chances of winning a 4th election diminish greatly. It is very rare with the SA ALP being the only party that has won a 4th election in that time period to my understanding.

If the Liberals win then SRL Northern definitely gets cancelled based on the above mentioned reasons, plus there is little electoral benefit for them. If the ALP wins, then they go to the 2030 election with a policy platform to build SRL Northern and the chances of the ALP winning a 5th consecutive election are essentially Buckleys. In this scenario, it will then require the ALP to be elected after 1 or 2 or 3 Liberal govt terms for SRL North section to be implemented.

Regardless of the actual results of the 2026 and 2030 elections, the chances of the SRL Northern ext being built by 2040 are precarious given the vicissitudes of state politics. This then has an obvious consequence of both delaying and undermining the potential of the SRL Western section ever being built, especially by 2050.

I'm patently playing a guessing game of conjecture of the future and articulating a somewhat pessimistic disposition which is based upon much supposition. However, taking into account state political and party policy history, along with the current team heading up the opposition this rough outline of the future is plausible. Let's see how it all unfolds at the next election....

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