Why Australia's power prices are going up?

 
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Regarding gas prices (a major reason for high electricity prices in recent years), it's worth digging into this AEMO report:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Gas/National_Planning_and_Forecasting/GSOO/2019/2019-GSOO-report.pdf

Page 42 onwards is a horror story.

After 2025, Bass Strait gas production is likely to fall significantly.  There's going to be ongoing shortfalls and thus more pressure to import gas.

My advice to Victorians - don't buy new gas heaters or other gas hungry devices....

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  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I didn’t notice this before - DirtyBallast, again you are incorrect.

Loy Yang A and B are regarded as being separate by seemingly everyone but you.

They were built at separate times - there’s effectively ten years between them, they have different addresses, they use different equipment, they are governed separately by AEMO - so you’re saying the energy regulator doesn’t know how many power plants there are? And report separately to AEMO.

Most telling even the originating contractor for building them, the SECV thought they were separate - they managed to sell them to two different entities.

I am in Rundle Mall right now, standing between Woolies and Coles, yes it’s true, Rundle Mall only has one supermarket.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Regarding gas prices (a major reason for high electricity prices in recent years), it's worth digging into this AEMO report:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Gas/National_Planning_and_Forecasting/GSOO/2019/2019-GSOO-report.pdf

Page 42 onwards is a horror story.

After 2025, Bass Strait gas production is likely to fall significantly.  There's going to be ongoing shortfalls and thus more pressure to import gas.

My advice to Victorians - don't buy new gas heaters or other gas hungry devices....
Carnot
Vic and the East Coast has plenty of gas and it would be travesty if Australia is ever forced to import gas considering we are #1 exporter.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Regarding gas prices (a major reason for high electricity prices in recent years), it's worth digging into this AEMO report:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Gas/National_Planning_and_Forecasting/GSOO/2019/2019-GSOO-report.pdf

Page 42 onwards is a horror story.

After 2025, Bass Strait gas production is likely to fall significantly.  There's going to be ongoing shortfalls and thus more pressure to import gas.

My advice to Victorians - don't buy new gas heaters or other gas hungry devices....
Vic and the East Coast has plenty of gas and it would be travesty if Australia is ever forced to import gas considering we are #1 exporter.
RTT_Rules
Yes.  So why is industry calling the shots and not the Govt?
https://www.industry.gov.au/regulations-and-standards/australian-domestic-gas-security-mechanism

So many loopholes here for the gas industry to exploit and royally _____ us.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Vic and the East Coast has plenty of gas and it would be travesty if Australia is ever forced to import gas considering we are #1 exporter.
RTT_Rules
An import terminal has been under construction at Port Kembla for a while - ABC.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/aussie-gas-imports-absurd/

I remember all the fuss and bollocks from Abbott and co over the carbon tax, six years later, what a debacle. He and several other right wing loons should be jailed.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Woops, Carbon Reduction Scheme I mean, fell into the LNP framing trap.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Vic and the East Coast has plenty of gas and it would be travesty if Australia is ever forced to import gas considering we are #1 exporter.
An import terminal has been under construction at Port Kembla for a while - ABC.
don_dunstan
or, just tap into the gas that NSW has plenty of but won't.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/aussie-gas-imports-absurd/

I remember all the fuss and bollocks from Abbott and co over the carbon tax, six years later, what a debacle. He and several other right wing loons should be jailed.
wobert
Cancelling that BS tax was the right thing to do. That tax deserved all the whoo har it got and probably more and if TA did nothing else right he did this right. The CO2 tax did nothing for the Environment and we don't need it as can be see over the last 6 years since it was cancelled.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Had TA formed government with Oakshott and Windsor, we'd have had that BS tax under him.
That BS tax also provided policy certainty, and that vanished and has yet to return.
My Mrs no longer does the ironing as the $550 pa saving post BS tax has disappeared. Thanks Tony.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
RTT, where does this stuff about Australia being the #1 exporter of gas come from? I don’t think we are, Australia is only the #1 exporter of gas if you ignore those countries that export more than us.
  wobert Chief Commissioner
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/aussie-gas-imports-absurd/

I remember all the fuss and bollocks from Abbott and co over the carbon tax, six years later, what a debacle. He and several other right wing loons should be jailed.
Cancelling that BS tax was the right thing to do. That tax deserved all the whoo har it got and probably more and if TA did nothing else right he did this right. The CO2 tax did nothing for the Environment and we don't need it as can be see over the last 6 years since it was cancelled.
RTT_Rules
Bollocks
https://reneweconomy.com.au/five-years-after-carbon-price-repeal-australia-remains-in-policy-abyss-43066/
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-price-helped-curb-emissions-anu-study-finds-20140717-ztuf6.html
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Nothing like dangling a bit of bait, and watching the conservatives amongst us fire up the outrage machine, terrible thing facts.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Vic and the East Coast has plenty of gas and it would be travesty if Australia is ever forced to import gas considering we are #1 exporter.
An import terminal has been under construction at Port Kembla for a while - ABC.
or, just tap into the gas that NSW has plenty of but won't.
RTT_Rules
You can only stuff the Great Artesian Basin once, and a lot of regional towns/cities are reliant on it, especially with the big dry. Let alone primary production, including mining. It would be the death of  regional Australia on the eastern side of the country.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Nothing like dangling a bit of bait, and watching the conservatives amongst us fire up the outrage machine, terrible thing facts.
wobert
Well I'm conservative on most things and think a carbon tax (properly done) isn't necessarily a bad thing.

In the meantime, the gas industry is taking us for a ride and making the Govt look like a pack of impotent mugs.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Yeah but Carnot you dont fire up the outrage machine a come back with a whole heap of ideological rubbish.You give the impression and have proven that your open to new ideas and reasoned debate with facts, and then made up your own mind on whether to change your opinion or not.I doubt whether  todays conservatives would consider your views conservative. Their views are locked in stone, yours are not


cheers Wobert
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Plus I find the branding   rather tiresome, like accepting the facts for climate change, therefore your some kind of left wing revolutionary. When in actual fact I've got some other views that would make Peter Dutton blush.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Nothing like dangling a bit of bait, and watching the conservatives amongst us fire up the outrage machine, terrible thing facts.
Well I'm conservative on most things and think a carbon tax (properly done) isn't necessarily a bad thing.

In the meantime, the gas industry is taking us for a ride and making the Govt look like a pack of impotent mugs.
Carnot
It's unfair to single out the gas industry.
You've omitted the banks, energy retailers. Laughing
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Plus I find the branding   rather tiresome, like accepting the facts for climate change, therefore your some kind of left wing revolutionary. When in actual fact I've got some other views that would make Peter Dutton blush.
wobert
The media loves to put tribes in labelled boxes.

Socially conservative environmentalists do exist.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Just out of interest Carnot, a while ago we were talking about the gay marriage plebicite in some thread or other and I think (from memory,could be mistaken) that you posted that you were against it,and gave your reasons, fair enough. Six months on has your opinion changed? Appologies if I've got you mixed up with someone else.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
RTT, where does this stuff about Australia being the #1 exporter of gas come from? I don’t think we are, Australia is only the #1 exporter of gas if you ignore those countries that export more than us.
Aaron
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-qatar-lng/australia-grabs-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-crown-from-qatar-in-nov-idUSKBN1O907N

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/lng-australia-nears-qatar-as-worlds-biggest-gas-exporter.html

Would appear we are at times No.1 then No.2 then No.1

Ok, so lets settle for equal Top.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I think we were #1 for a small proportion of time.

We do not routinely outpace Qatar by a significant margin, but for much of the year they easily out do us.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/aussie-gas-imports-absurd/

I remember all the fuss and bollocks from Abbott and co over the carbon tax, six years later, what a debacle. He and several other right wing loons should be jailed.
Cancelling that BS tax was the right thing to do. That tax deserved all the whoo har it got and probably more and if TA did nothing else right he did this right. The CO2 tax did nothing for the Environment and we don't need it as can be see over the last 6 years since it was cancelled.
Bollocks
https://reneweconomy.com.au/five-years-after-carbon-price-repeal-australia-remains-in-policy-abyss-43066/
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-price-helped-curb-emissions-anu-study-finds-20140717-ztuf6.html
wobert
Oh great, you are quoting the ANU, a history of producing interesting results like, "Australia has limitless pumped hydro", which was determined by looking at every possible place you could build a dam without consideration if its Env acceptable, Socially acceptable, economic, practical....

Of the so called 6-9 mtpa of CO2 claimed to have been saved by CO2 tax, around 6 mtpa can be attributed to the closure of Point Henry and Kurri Kurri Aluminum smelters in both energy generation and internal process. However all that has been done is that CO2 emissions were off-shored to India and China which make aluminium burning crap coal or worse, our coal, or the ME which burns natural gas. Hooray for the Australian CO2 tax and the morons who put it there, it achieved so much!!!!!

Of note, Kurri Kurri was scheduled for replacement with modern smelting technology which was initially placed on hold due to the rising $A and salaries of the Hunter valley and which was immediately cancelled outright by its Norwegian owners on implementation of the CO2 tax and a NSW govt that pulled the new power contract at the 11th hour with no explanation.

Australia's CO2 per capita peaked in 2009 at around 18t/person/pa and now 15t/person/pa and continues to decline, so despite a right leaning govt for last 6 years, the CO2 consumption continues to fall, mostly on the back of more efficient cars and reducing age of the national fleet, closure of some of the older coal power stations, more efficient operation of the remainder and RE expansion and significant uptake in PT in the major cities again all continuing despite the loss of the CO2 tax.

So what did the CO2 tax actually achieve, in short it was SFA.
- Taxed freight rail over trucks
- Taxed commuter rail over cars
- Taxed the higher income earners using modern cars and energy efficient housing
- Compensated those driving older cars and with less efficient housing
- taxed industry, but did not provide alternatives
- taxed the power sector and did not provide alternatives for which then and now alternatives for base load power or night/windless day RE power generation is still lacking an affordable technically viable solution.

While wholesale power prices have peaked and decline in most states, the exception is the Peoples Republic of Victoria where the Premier and the Yes gang who support him openly do not support 24/7 RE options to replace Hazellwood and infact live in denial of the loss of Hazellwood has actually caused any problems despite the power price tripling. The PRV since the closure of Hazellwood still have no increased their peaking gas capacity since the early 2000's, have not funded or sort to fund any hydro project including SNOWY 2.0 or expansion of Bass Link. The PRV Premier and his Yes team continue their publicly hate relationship with their coal generation and the operators, even taxing them but offering nothing in return. A

At least SA was small enough that this brain dead behavior was almost manageable being supplied from the eastern states, mostly Vic while HAzellwood was in operation noting that SA is now supporting Vic's peaking demand until the end of the upcoming summer when Torren's Island is partly closed.

Up until the 2000's the states managed their own power generation affairs, most still are to some degree including SA, why does Vic need an invitation to do the same?

So no, we don't need the CO2 tax, it did nothing for us before, we have proven we don't need it now. ALso interesting at the time Australia was supposed to join the EU ETS, however the Greens opposed, why because the price crashed. No longer suited their wealth grabbing agenda.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Just out of interest Carnot, a while ago we were talking about the gay marriage plebicite in some thread or other and I think (from memory,could be mistaken) that you posted that you were against it,and gave your reasons, fair enough. Six months on has your opinion changed? Appologies if I've got you mixed up with someone else.
wobert
My view on that hasn't changed one iota.  If anything my convictions about that issue are stronger, due in part to the outrage mob feeling emboldened to ramp up their demands on other related matters.

As for climate change - 10 years ago I wasn't entirely convinced but kept an open mind.  I'm no longer a skeptic because of more complete climate data and correlation.

Regarding power prices - of course we've had to pay more for renewables in recent years.  But it'll save us more in the long run.  We just need the Govt to regulate the greedy corporations in the meantime.

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