Why Australia's power prices are going up?

 
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-25/energy-companies-gouge-customers-hazelwood-electricity-bill/10910948
Make of it what you will
wobert
There should've been laws put in place to force proceeds of such price gouging into new tech.  Instead most of it goes to already wealthy shareholders pockets.

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  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
It's a national market (on the east coast) that's what interconnectors are all about, and the building of more.It doesn't matter where the stuff is produced, it's who can produce it the cheapest at a particular time. A line on the map representing a state border is totally irrelevant.
wobert
Inter-connectors that are mostly single circuit or double circuit run up to 100% is not the smartest way of running the grid. Look at the failures to date doing and Tas bass link today. It also adds cost to power and even cheap power looses its cheapness being pushed 1000km. Sending high cost power 1000km is therefore not smart at all.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Basslink is broken. Again. Not due back until mid October.

Also, only one out of four units at Loy Yang A is currently operating. One unit is off for planned maintenance, one is still broken with a generator meltdown and not due back until December, and another has a boiler tube leak.
So we are to place our grid at the mercy of single circuit power lines into other states in the name of RE. Yah!!!!

So, you shut down your aging coal fired capacity and not replace it throwing the state at the mercy of one aging coal power station and one younger coal power station with combined almost no redundancy apart from intermittent wind, predictable, reliable but non continuous solar, maxed out hydro and no expansion in OCGT while shutting older plants and an unreliable connector to Tasmania and your addressing your response to me why????

You should be writing to the Premier.
RTT_Rules
Meanwhile, the (Victorian) Premier is throwing money at this:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/victoria-solar-demand-still-sizzling-another-3250-rebates-gone-in-20-minutes-98264/
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-18/australian-first-highest-bushfire-risk-rated-home-cheap-to-run/11517878

Even without solar panels, it would only cost $3.80 a day to run this eco-friendly house
Not only can this home withstand bushfire attack, but its innovative design means powering its appliances, lights, and heating and cooling costs as little as a daily cup of coffee.


$3.80/day, expensive

My 3 bed house in Gladstone was costing us around $1100pa in electricity in 2009 before we left. that's $3.01/day with AC, no gas, no solar including water and sewer and including the Qld ambo levy at the time.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Basslink is broken. Again. Not due back until mid October.

Also, only one out of four units at Loy Yang A is currently operating. One unit is off for planned maintenance, one is still broken with a generator meltdown and not due back until December, and another has a boiler tube leak.
So we are to place our grid at the mercy of single circuit power lines into other states in the name of RE. Yah!!!!

So, you shut down your aging coal fired capacity and not replace it throwing the state at the mercy of one aging coal power station and one younger coal power station with combined almost no redundancy apart from intermittent wind, predictable, reliable but non continuous solar, maxed out hydro and no expansion in OCGT while shutting older plants and an unreliable connector to Tasmania and your addressing your response to me why????

You should be writing to the Premier.
Meanwhile, the (Victorian) Premier is throwing money at this:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/victoria-solar-demand-still-sizzling-another-3250-rebates-gone-in-20-minutes-98264/
Carnot
Well Vic is greatly behind and better late than ever for the Premier to suddenly response to the pending summer issues.

Notice he has to bribe/subsidise Victorians to install solar PV, the standard price on its own is not sufficient.

Vic is now around 28% solar during the day compared to 40% in Qld and struggling to achieve the low prices of elsewhere.

Now, what are you going to do after dark? At least Vic has a reasonable amount of hydro to act as battery plus the connection to Tassie when its working.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Don't look now, but wait for it, oh look now, quickly now, I mean right now, too late, don't look again.
Oh, FFS.

The statement was made that South Australia imports electricity as soon as it gets dark, which is INCORRECT.
No, I didn't say that nor did others.

What we said is that when the solar and wind output drop, which they typically do each day and not uncommon in the early evening SA is reliant on OCGT, steam gas and in summer frequently imported power to keep the lights on.
RTT_Rules
What a bizarre comment.

It was written in black and white - Donald said, "...they export electricity when no-one needs it during the day when the sun shines, but as soon as it gets dark, they start sucking back."

I found his blanket statement to be unequivocal.

Are you now saying that it was never written?

YOUR interpretation is that South Australia imports power at night time frequently, not per se as Donald stated. YOUR interpretation does not align with Donald's statement.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Basslink is broken. Again. Not due back until mid October.

Also, only one out of four units at Loy Yang A is currently operating. One unit is off for planned maintenance, one is still broken with a generator meltdown and not due back until December, and another has a boiler tube leak.
So we are to place our grid at the mercy of single circuit power lines into other states in the name of RE. Yah!!!!

So, you shut down your aging coal fired capacity and not replace it throwing the state at the mercy of one aging coal power station and one younger coal power station with combined almost no redundancy apart from intermittent wind, predictable, reliable but non continuous solar, maxed out hydro and no expansion in OCGT while shutting older plants and an unreliable connector to Tasmania and your addressing your response to me why????

You should be writing to the Premier.
RTT_Rules
Last sentence first - if Kennett was still in power, I would certainly write to him!

You are factually incorrect with the rest. You seem to think that after the closure of Hazelwood (in average age, it was equivalent to a HK Holden - by comparison, is yours still going strong? Why not?) there are only two coal fired power stations still in service in Victoria. You're slipping. And, our hydro is rarely, if ever, maxed out. Where do you get your information from, or do you just make it up?

Regarding OCGT, for your information half of Mortlake is still out of action (283MW) further pressuring backup supply, again until late in the year. Even more fossil fuelled failure. Rolling Eyes
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
What/where are those QLD solar energy numbers DirtyBallast? No word on them?
Aaron
I'm not going to post a screenshot of every update 24/7.

If you bothered to put your donut down and engage in a modicum of research for yourself, you would not question claims such as the one I made.

Stop being so bloody lazy.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Basslink is broken. Again. Not due back until mid October.

Also, only one out of four units at Loy Yang A is currently operating. One unit is off for planned maintenance, one is still broken with a generator meltdown and not due back until December, and another has a boiler tube leak.
So we are to place our grid at the mercy of single circuit power lines into other states in the name of RE. Yah!!!!

So, you shut down your aging coal fired capacity and not replace it throwing the state at the mercy of one aging coal power station and one younger coal power station with combined almost no redundancy apart from intermittent wind, predictable, reliable but non continuous solar, maxed out hydro and no expansion in OCGT while shutting older plants and an unreliable connector to Tasmania and your addressing your response to me why????

You should be writing to the Premier.
Last sentence first - if Kennett was still in power, I would certainly write to him!

You are factually incorrect with the rest. You seem to think that after the closure of Hazelwood (in average age, it was equivalent to a HK Holden - by comparison, is yours still going strong? Why not?) there are only two coal fired power stations still in service in Victoria. You're slipping.

Regarding OCGT, for your information half of Mortlake is still out of action (283MW) further pressuring backup supply, again until late in the year. Even more fossil fuelled failure. Rolling Eyes
DirtyBallast
So you would write to a party in govt that you oppose if they are doing wrong but you won't write to your brothers in arms!

Who said Hazelwood had to stay, I said its capacity needed to be replaced. It wasn't they didn't even build a CCGT.

Anyone with a brain knows you need redundancy regardless of the supply energy source. With the loss of Hazelwood, Vic has very little to none.

At 6:30pm tonight in Vic, the output fro Solar and wind in Vic was 200MW for a 6500MW load. I'll let the brains trust here explain how he plans to keep 5m people in power and business in production with that 200MW or even scaling it up.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I'm not going to post a screenshot of every update 24/7.

DirtyBallast
You should, you might actually know whats going on then!
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Basslink is broken. Again. Not due back until mid October.

Also, only one out of four units at Loy Yang A is currently operating. One unit is off for planned maintenance, one is still broken with a generator meltdown and not due back until December, and another has a boiler tube leak.
So we are to place our grid at the mercy of single circuit power lines into other states in the name of RE. Yah!!!!

So, you shut down your aging coal fired capacity and not replace it throwing the state at the mercy of one aging coal power station and one younger coal power station with combined almost no redundancy apart from intermittent wind, predictable, reliable but non continuous solar, maxed out hydro and no expansion in OCGT while shutting older plants and an unreliable connector to Tasmania and your addressing your response to me why????

You should be writing to the Premier.
Last sentence first - if Kennett was still in power, I would certainly write to him!

You are factually incorrect with the rest. You seem to think that after the closure of Hazelwood (in average age, it was equivalent to a HK Holden - by comparison, is yours still going strong? Why not?) there are only two coal fired power stations still in service in Victoria. You're slipping.

Regarding OCGT, for your information half of Mortlake is still out of action (283MW) further pressuring backup supply, again until late in the year. Even more fossil fuelled failure. Rolling Eyes
...Hazelwood...
RTT_Rules
At least, after all these years, you have learnt how to spell it correctly.

Kudos.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
I'm not going to post a screenshot of every update 24/7.
You should, you might actually know whats going on then!
RTT_Rules
Redirect to Aaron.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
DirtyBallast, my questions to you had an ulterior meaning, I think RTT picked it, but I am not 100% certain. That said, of something I am absolutely certain is that you missed it - revealing exactly what I suspected - that you don’t know what you’re talking about.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I'm glad we can all agree so-called 'unreliables' are a massive waste of the $2,200,000,000 we are directly subsidising them with.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
DirtyBallast, my questions to you had an ulterior meaning, I think RTT picked it, but I am not 100% certain. That said, of something I am absolutely certain is that you missed it - revealing exactly what I suspected - that you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Aaron
Thanks for that 'compliment' mate, but it says far more about you than me.

Unlike you I'm not here to be deliberately tricky; I take what is written by others at face value and respond accordingly. You, on the other hand, have ulterior motives. You are duplicitous in any attempt to debate the relevant issue candidly. Deep down, I think you know why.

Are you still happy to imply a lack of knowledge on my part simply because I chose to ignore one of your posts?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
This is where Railpage's biggest weakness I cannot post a picture from my Excel without using a 3rd party site is annoying.

We can show a direct correlation with whole sale power prices rising immediately following the closes of both Northern and Hazellwood, can the likes of Dirtyballast show the opposite?

Unfortunately Dirty Ballast is coming from an extremist position which means any other opinion is diagonally opposed and therefore wrong in his eyes.

I would suggest no one here is 100% opposed to RE, even if they don't believe in global warming. However I would suggest many people are 100% opposed to being ripped off for no good reason by poorly informed govt policy to suddenly turn on the one energy source that helped build Australia and much of its industry. To go from one of the worlds cheapest energy produces to one of the most expensive in a decade means there is something fundamentally wrong with the chosen path.

Much of the costings of coal power generation that are presented to the govt are blatant lies by organisations with alt agendas which is easily proven by comparative projects OS more often than not using Australian coal at world prices which is usually alot more than local power stations pay.

The likes of Dirty ballast want to grab single turbine data points and say look how bad coal is, yet the industry kept the lights on and industry going for 100 years successfully, why because its an industry, not a single turbine. However when the tables are turned and we show PV is only generating for 8h a day on average and a single wind turbine on average 1/3 of the year, tehy dummy spit because it doesn't match their agenda.

A few of here have asked the question many times to the likes of Dirty Ballast and others and have yet to seen more than a motherhood statement response. To shut down the coal and bulk of gas generation in Australia and replace it anything else RE related and retain the power prices of 5-7 years ago, not the rip off prices of today, how do you propose to do this? Also factor in the boom expected in EV's that will triple the grid load within 25 years.

Personally I have no objection to RE on the sole proviso it pays its own way and not forced onto the population and industry. People should have the option of paying the RE price and the home rooftop solar output likewise should be the real price, not a govt nominated amount. Whether that be higher or lower. I know some are getting more because some business and people are willing to pay the premium and this is being offered by power retailers to home owners.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
The schema of a conservative is such a fascinating thing.

Why would you even imagine that I could produce such opposing wholesale price data? I never even hinted that the wholesale price did not increase after some generation capacity was removed, let alone say it directly. What has made you think that I do not understand the laws of supply and demand? Do you treat everyone opposed to your views as stupid? You've got such a fertile imagination.

I have never spat the dummy at the intermittent nature of RE. Ever. I have though, many times, pointed out the failures of coal fired generating units to you when they occur because you are obviously not aware of local issues when they occur, regardless how worldly you think you are. It points to systemic unreliability whether you like it or not, viz. presently only 6 of 10 Victorian units are running - the rest can't - no-one has extrapolated the data point of any single unit to reach that situation either.

Stop being so shrill, stop imagining anyone opposed to you as having extreme views, stop jumping to conclusions, stop making stuff up about what you imaging people to be saying, and stop pretending that you are across local issues.

By the way, you spelt Hazelwood wrong again. Laughing
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
DirtyBallast, you don’t get it, I can tell you don’t know what you’re talking about because of the way you did reply - with an entirely wrong response. It’s not that you chose to ignore it, if you ignored it I would be able to infer anything, it would remain just be an unproven suspicion.

Right now, SA is exporting, but with 80MW of solar and 1201MW of wind and 10MW coming out of the ‘big battery’ 10% of the state would be blacked out (and ZERO export) would be the current status if the 388MW of gas wasn’t burning. Considering the battery is supposed to be for storing excess ‘green’ energy I wonder how many times it’s been ‘charged’ when carbon sources in SA were zero - my guess maybe once, if that.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The schema of a conservative is such a fascinating thing.

Why would you even imagine that I could produce such opposing wholesale price data? I never even hinted that the wholesale price did not increase after some generation capacity was removed, let alone say it directly. What has made you think that I do not understand the laws of supply and demand? Do you treat everyone opposed to your views as stupid? You've got such a fertile imagination.

I have never spat the dummy at the intermittent nature of RE. Ever. I have though, many times, pointed out the failures of coal fired generating units to you when they occur because you are obviously not aware of local issues when they occur, regardless how worldly you think you are. It points to systemic unreliability whether you like it or not, viz. presently only 6 of 10 Victorian units are running - the rest can't - no-one has extrapolated the data point of any single unit to reach that situation either.

Stop being so shrill, stop imagining anyone opposed to you as having extreme views, stop jumping to conclusions, stop making stuff up about what you imaging people to be saying, and stop pretending that you are across local issues.

By the way, you spelt Hazelwood wrong again. Laughing
DirtyBallast
So your whole point in this exercise is to provide a service to inform us when a coal turbine goes off? Its not about being worldly, I can look this up as much as you can in OPEN NEM.

No one said coal was bullet proof, it needs redundancy, but when you remove the bulk of the spare capacity and don't replace you get what you get. Vic has not added any significant or maybe even zero despatable power since the closure of Hazelwood. Don't blame the remaining generators for this.

You constantly attack coal on its supposedly poor availability, but you never provide a solution and again the above post is the same, so what conclusions do you expect us to make?
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.

You constantly attack coal on its supposedly poor availability, but you never provide a solution and again the above post is the same, so what conclusions do you expect us to make?
RTT_Rules
When you watch the evening news and see an upsetting story, do you yell at the telly "WTF ARE YOU DOING ABOUT IT???"

I suspect not.

Shooting the messenger is just plain dumb.
  Nightfire Minister for Railways

Location: Gippsland
There are only two coal fired power stations still in service in Victoria.Rolling Eyes
DirtyBallast
There are three coal fired power stations still In service In Victoria

Yalloun W (4x 340 MWH)
Loy Yang A (4X 500 MWH)
Loy Yang B (2X 500 MWH)

(note the MWH Is their original Installed gross output)
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
There are only two coal fired power stations still in service in Victoria.Rolling Eyes
There are three coal fired power stations still In service In Victoria

Yalloun W (4x 340 MWH)
Loy Yang A (4X 500 MWH)
Loy Yang B (2X 500 MWH)

(note the MWH Is their original Installed gross output)
Nightfire
Vic average load is 5200 MW
Total Coal Gen Capacity 4360 MW
Hydro 270 MW (average output)
Gas 340 MW (average output)
Imports - Exports = 57 MW (average demand)

Total despatchable  = 200MW less than demand

...and you wonder why if 1 or 2 coal turbines fall over, so does Victoria power supply and affordability.

Wind and solar are great, if the sun is out and/or its windy, although to be fair its very very rare for total wind to be
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
There are only two coal fired power stations still in service in Victoria.Rolling Eyes
There are three coal fired power stations still In service In Victoria

Yalloun W (4x 340 MWH)
Loy Yang A (4X 500 MWH)
Loy Yang B (2X 500 MWH)

(note the MWH Is their original Installed gross output)
Nightfire
Nothing like some selective editing, is there?

This is the actual statement that I made in reply to our resident eel. It can be found further up the page:
"You are factually incorrect with the rest. You seem to think that after the closure of Hazelwood (in average age, it was equivalent to a HK Holden - by comparison, is yours still going strong? Why not?) there are only two coal fired power stations still in service in Victoria."

It wasn't ME suggesting only two others mate!
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-14/snowy-hydro-2.0-expensive-and-wont-deliver-energy-expert/11594768
Snowy 2.0 is looking more and more like a dead duck due to it likely being a complete financial flop. Technically I like it, but its viability has never been good and the more we dig, the worse it gets.

If however its a viable technical solution that allows the next few coal stations to close (likely), then it the whole project needs to be 'gifted" by the taxpayer to the power industry. Again the whole "pumped hydro" holy grail is looking very shaking to solving Australia's future beyond coal.


Meanwhile in the middle east, Dubai has signed the world's lowest power price contract for PV solar at US$17/MWh, which will be complemented by a pumped hydro project to help manage the evening peak with gas continuing to provide the base load for a few decades to come.

https://gulfnews.com/business/dubais-dewa-gets-record-low-bid-to-build-solar-power-plant-1.67106822
  RedEyeExpress Locomotive Driver

Location: Melbourne
Meanwhile, cost vs reliability: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/11604350

Power outage 'resurfaces' impacting businesses and customers in section of Adelaide CBD

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