Why Australia's power prices are going up?

 
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Fair enough Carnot, and your last paragraph is especially succinct

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  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Now where was I, regarding ideological rubbish.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I think we were #1 for a small proportion of time.

We do not routinely outpace Qatar by a significant margin, but for much of the year they easily out do us.
Aaron
It depends on which month you read the report but I believe from what I read and friends in the industry we are to move ahead of Qatar longer-term unless the govt interferes (and they won't, they want the $$$). Russian has since dropped to 3rd place as the EU is looking to diversify away from Russian as sole source for political reasons, this of course may mean Qatar gets a boost?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Now where was I, regarding ideological rubbish.
wobert
Don't know, but we wait with baited breath on your next spin.....Rolling Eyes
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
My view on that hasn't changed one iota.  If anything my convictions about that issue are stronger, due in part to the outrage mob feeling emboldened to ramp up their demands on other related matters.

As for climate change - 10 years ago I wasn't entirely convinced but kept an open mind.  I'm no longer a skeptic because of more complete climate data and correlation.

Regarding power prices - of course we've had to pay more for renewables in recent years.  But it'll save us more in the long run.  We just need the Govt to regulate the greedy corporations in the meantime.
Carnot
I think for the most part most people agree reducing CO2 emissions isn't a bad thing (Don being one of the exceptions). However its the how and at what cost that is the issue.

Yes, post TA there was a void in policy, I think in part because he was dumped not long after and the MT would have introduced a CO2 tax in a heart beat if allowed and hence the LNP had internal stalemate.

A few state govt's have also learnt the hard way that handing over their generation capacity to the private sector was a partial failure of policy and outcome and the "bastards need to be kept honest". In principle I'm not opposed, but such a small sector of generational capacity easily manipulated with limited regulation unlike the US bench mark showed its full self.

Another issue with our open electricity market is that the state govts cannot or unwilling to replicate whats happened in Dubai with regard to reducing emissions, for example.
Recently Dubai Govt went open tender in a PPP arrangement for a
- solar farm and got $17/MW for X many MWpa fixed price incremented to inflation,
- Previously open tender for a coal power station asking for worlds best emissions and price providing baseload power. They got 43% efficiency, burning Aussie (Qld) black gold at US$45/MW incremented to inflation (something many one eyed RE supporters is not possible)
- Also recently did a similar thing for pumped hydro to support the growing PV solar farms (yes its a desert, but it does storm a few times a year in the Oman mountains)

SA tried failed at getting solar thermal, because it couldn't offer a fixed price arrangement to provide a bankable guarantee. This is the same issue facing the potential to build coal in Australia, its got nothing to do with price, its all about risk of being hit with taxes for crimes against humanity at the next change of govt.

Will paying through the nose for RE save us? No, do you notice how the developed nations are leading the push towards RE over developing nations who are still building coal power stations. RE must be introduced at prices we and industry can afford and this does not mean increased over previous. The RE proponents keep telling us the cost is coming down, so simple introduce as the price becomes affordable, which for solar PV it is. As for Snowy 2.0, I'll post separately.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner


Will paying through the nose for RE save us? No, do you notice how the developed nations are leading the push towards RE over developing nations who are still building coal power stations. RE must be introduced at prices we and industry can afford and this does not mean increased over previous. The RE proponents keep telling us the cost is coming down, so simple introduce as the price becomes affordable, which for solar PV it is. As for Snowy 2.0, I'll post separately.
RTT_Rules
Even many of the big developing nations are shifting to renewables.  India a case in point:
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/energy/renewable-capacity-additions-exceed-new-coal-in-india-67269

But still, huge coal powerplants are continuing to get built.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
I didn’t notice this before - DirtyBallast, again you are incorrect.

Loy Yang A and B are regarded as being separate by seemingly everyone but you.

They were built at separate times - there’s effectively ten years between them, they have different addresses, they use different equipment, they are governed separately by AEMO - so you’re saying the energy regulator doesn’t know how many power plants there are? And report separately to AEMO.

Most telling even the originating contractor for building them, the SECV thought they were separate - they managed to sell them to two different entities.

I am in Rundle Mall right now, standing between Woolies and Coles, yes it’s true, Rundle Mall only has one supermarket.
Aaron
WTF you talking about?

Any chance that you are even capable of quoting what I said vs. what you claim?

Please???
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE

Will paying through the nose for RE save us? No, do you notice how the developed nations are leading the push towards RE over developing nations who are still building coal power stations. RE must be introduced at prices we and industry can afford and this does not mean increased over previous. The RE proponents keep telling us the cost is coming down, so simple introduce as the price becomes affordable, which for solar PV it is. As for Snowy 2.0, I'll post separately.Even many of the big developing nations are shifting to renewables.  India a case in point:
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/energy/renewable-capacity-additions-exceed-new-coal-in-india-67269

But still, huge coal powerplants are continuing to get built.
Carnot
Yep and I've seen their wind turbines, but as you said they are still building coal faster than they build RE. China is no different despite its impressive PV solar wrapped over mountain ranges and extensive wind turbines.

Australia is however moving in the RE direction so again, we don't need a BS CO2 tax. Let the process happen as technology is available at the right price.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Just saying

Loy Yang A - AGL Loy Yang Partnership
https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/how-we-source-energy/loy-yang-power-station
Bartons Lane, Traralgon, VIC
+61 3 5173 3201

Loy Yang B - International Power plc (70%) and Mitsui & Co. Ltd (30%)
http://www.loyyangb.com.au/
Bartons Ln, Traralgon VIC 3844, Australi
+61 3 5177 2000
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Adani opens solar 55MW solar farm in Oz, doesnt make the news.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Shane mentioned previously about the closure of the Kurri Kurri smelter  

https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/116399/hundreds-of-jobs-to-go-with-closure-of-kurri-smelter/


And as for per capita reductions  

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-17/fact-check-are-emissions-coming-down-in-australia/10620194

"mainly due to Australia's rapid  population growth"

And that article is 12 months old


well there you go.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I’d nearly forgotten about that COP24 summit - I might just be the only member of RP to have spent time in Katowice, I remember that COP24 summit being undertaken, proving nicely that politicians have a sense of humour.

Per capita emissions are not the most ideal metric, but despite what ‘one expert in the field’ - who notably is either doesn’t really exist, or chooses to remain unnamed thinks, it is probably the most reasonable choice of metrics.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Yeah but the money quote is

As one expert put it: "The atmosphere doesn't care how many people are contributing to emissions; it's the total quantity of emissions that matters."
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Shane mentioned previously about the closure of the Kurri Kurri smelter  

https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/116399/hundreds-of-jobs-to-go-with-closure-of-kurri-smelter/


And as for per capita reductions  

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-17/fact-check-are-emissions-coming-down-in-australia/10620194

"mainly due to Australia's rapid  population growth"

And that article is 12 months old


well there you go.
wobert
I'm really not sure what you are getting at or even what the ABC fact check was trying to say other than no one can agree on a yard stick. Confused????


Aluminium is power intensive, VERY power intensive. 1t needs about 13.5 to 14.5MW of electricity. The best smelters in the world are around 13 or just below, the worst around 15.5 to 16. The theoretical is 7.5 MW/t and its takes 30-50 years to drop Globally by around 2-3 MW/t and most of the easy work has been done. The world uses 70mtpa of the stuff and growing at around 5%pa. The comment in ABC article said demand was going down, its not it wasn't there were wrong, growth in aluminium is very consistent, more so than most other base metals. Think phones, air travel, car, rail transport, ships, PC's, TV's..metal of affluence and development. EV's use more aluminium than ICE.

The aluminium process internally burns around 450kg of carbon per tonne of aluminium and there is NO other way to make it. So 70mtpa of production = 40mtpa of Carbon being converted to CO2 + energy generation which is many times more if coal or gas.  Russia, China, India, Australia, Middle East, Canada, all make it the same way. Its called the Hall-Hault electrolysis process. The two main sub categories are Soderberg, where the anode is made from paste and cooked in the pot, or Pre-baking the anodes, the most common and cleanest and lowest energy operations. Russia is now the mainstay of Soderberg potlines. China Govt directed full closure about 10 years ago.

Geelong (2014 shortly after LNP took office) and Kurri (2011 under ALP watch) used around 800MW of power, all coal, Geelong obviously brown. So when they closed in early 2010's, Australia dumped 800MW of coal fired production at the same time. So CO2 total or per capita got a major boost from the respective closures.

Australia's CO2 per capita is around 15 tpp, Iceland which is mostly geothermal and hydro powered is around 17 tpp, mainly driven by the growth of its aluminium industry for which it doesn't even make its own anodes, that portion of the CO2 production is done in Netherlands. In both Australia's and Icelands case, neither country uses all their aluminium production, but are stained with the CO2 brush. Sure Iceland's is lower CO2 per tonne due to hydro power generation, where as Boyne, Tomago and Portland are mostly coal fired, Bell Bay being the only one on 100% hydro.

Now the real joke is the Iceland govt is under pressure to force the closure of the smelters to make its CO2 foot print look good. Only an idiot would find sense in this comment.

Fun Fact: Icelands CO2 emissions are basically, 33% aluminium production, 10% local, 30% air travel mostly the massive growth in tourism over the last few years to visit the clean and green island. Maybe they should plant trees to off-set???

Ok Australia yes, we make 1.3M tpa of aluminium on coal power, but guess what. There isn't enough hydro power in the world to make all the world's aluminium and even if you did, all that would do is displace current demand for the hydro onto more likely fossil fuel. China, currently making half the worlds aluminum, all on coal is also not about to change and neither the middle east which makes 25% of global production on Natural gas.

So back to the ABC article which was a mish mash of inclusive outcomes basically acknowledging no yardstick is actual valid;

1) Yes Australia's CO2 per person is dropping, the reason is complex and the ALP got a free kick from a near recession and major industry closing. Yah for the ALP.

2) CO2 per capita as a metric is only valid if standardize it for industry. ie remove our export component and include our import component. Which they don't do and won't do as its complex.

As far as the Env goes if you do above its a very valid metric, unlike comments in the ABC.

3) Total CO2 emissions is a pi$$ poor metric due to immigration.

As far as the Env goes, its still a pi$$ metric unless you are willing to introduce population curtailment policy.

4) Do we need a CO2? No, what would it do? The last tax was useless and ineffective at reducing CO2 and didn't even target the alternatives, rather rewarded high emission sources. Paying more tax to the govt has not helped industry in the past and won't in the future and only continue to drive industry off-shore.

Fun Fact: Nissan Leaf components are made in Australia only while we still have an domestic aluminium industry.

While there has been growth in RE in the power sector, coal has gone from 87% to 73% in 12 years (Gas went up a few %), the full process will take at least another 30 years. A CO2 tax will not make up for the fact we have few rivers left to dam, wind is not reliable and there is no sun at night and there are few if any technically industrialised alternatives.  

Unfortunately the motherhood statements from the Climate protesters and their "Yes Sir" don't add any value to these technical issues and if they were not climbing trains and blocking trams then perhaps others could get on with the job of solving these issues.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Planting trees is a very short term solution to CO2 emissions offsetting - just another idea brought to us by ‘greenies’ who have not really thought about the whole process, and economists trying to come up with their ‘carbon credit’ exchanges.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Planting trees is a very short term solution to CO2 emissions offsetting - just another idea brought to us by ‘greenies’ who have not really thought about the whole process, and economists trying to come up with their ‘carbon credit’ exchanges.
Aaron
In reference to Iceland it was sort of a joke as Iceland isn't reknown for its forests because its too cold. Ironically in past warm periods it was more heavily forested than today.

The biggest benefit of re-vegetation is reduction of wind based evaporation, improved crop and live stock condition as well as localised rainfall.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Oct 2020 AEMO performance by state

SA was the lowest average wholesale power price at $67 / MWh, PV solar now frequently hitting 67% of total state demand during the middle of the day.

Qld was 2nd with $74 / MWh, PV solar now exceeding 1/3 of state demand and at times closer to 40%.

Qld's price is being held up by its large connection with NSW where whole sale prices are over $100 / MWh.

Tas is suffering similar due to Vic at $100 / MWh
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Over 80% of South Australia's power is being generated by renewables at present.  Lucky there's both strong winds and solar to keep the supply up, and prices down.  Hopefully it doesn't go too pear-shaped with the incoming cool change this evening...
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Q3 2019
SA imported the lowest amount of power on record, 46GW.

Exports were at record high of 560 GW

However a very large price difference

Imported power was on average $110 / MWh, just to show when they want it, so do the rest of the NEM
Exported power however was on average $59 / MWh.

Net Diff is $28M income into the state.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Interesting story on the ABC:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-04/some-energy-consumers-not-seeking-out-a-better-deal/11753818

I noticed recently that our discounted Electricity plan which we had for a couple of years expired.  And the tariff doubled overnight.  No wonder so many people end up paying more than they should.

So quickly went shopping on compare the market website: https://compare.energy.vic.gov.au/

You really have to have your wits about you and be rather I.T savy to make it work (and even then it might not).

After uploading our smartmeter data (after getting an account sorted via Powercor website), options for retailers were listed but there was a confusing array of conditions and strings attached.  Good grief!

It actually took a few attempts to get signed up to a decent deal.  And then more delays getting it moved across to new retailer.

Things were a lot easier when you only dealt with the SECV....
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
We're on the cheapest available kw/h and daily charge and it's still 44 cents per kw/h, which makes our domestic electricity almost the most expensive in the world. By contrast the average domestic electricity charge in the United States is (USD) 12 cents per kw/h - even allowing for the currency difference that's about a third of what we pay here.

No wonder the very most basic industries like aluminium smelting and brick-making are going off-shore now, the cost of trying to manufacture something in this country is extortionate.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Interesting story on the ABC:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-04/some-energy-consumers-not-seeking-out-a-better-deal/11753818

I noticed recently that our discounted Electricity plan which we had for a couple of years expired.  And the tariff doubled overnight.  No wonder so many people end up paying more than they should.

So quickly went shopping on compare the market website: https://compare.energy.vic.gov.au/

You really have to have your wits about you and be rather I.T savy to make it work (and even then it might not).

After uploading our smartmeter data (after getting an account sorted via Powercor website), options for retailers were listed but there was a confusing array of conditions and strings attached.  Good grief!

It actually took a few attempts to get signed up to a decent deal.  And then more delays getting it moved across to new retailer.

Things were a lot easier when you only dealt with the SECV....
Carnot
Agree, this is a problem and a trap for those not able to do this themselves satisfactorily and these people need protection.

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