Don, you are a fascinating subject.
Thank-you DirtyBallast, I do consider that to be a high compliment.
Just to let you know, I am literally marking your words. I'm writing down all your predictions for future reference. Now let's analyse this one. Last time, Labor was in power for five years nine months and 14 days, from 24th Nov 2007 to 7th Sep 2013. If they get elected in 2019 and last for two full three year terms (i.e. closer to, or just exceeding six years) then your prediction is wrong. For your prediction to be right, they will have to be defeated after one term. For your description of 'crash and burn' to be right, they will have to be very heavily defeated after one term. Roll on 2022! What will hurt the libs for the next few years is that to regain the masses, they will need to move back to the centre, but Labor already has a grip on it. And that's not a prediction.
My considered opinion is that we're in a paradigm-shift and that anything wild and whacky is possible; okay Shorten will probably win with a 20-25 seat majority the next time they hold an election but the endemic problems in the Aussie economy are becoming really pronounced and very difficult to ignore - and they're going to reach critical mass just as Shorten gets into office.
Firstly, we have the property crash which has been defying all predictions to pick up speed. Domain is reporting today that Sydney auctions have sunk to their lowest clearance rate in decades and in addition the values achieved for approximately the same number of properties this time last year was 47% down.
Anyone who watches the key indicators of residential property would know that this is a total disaster and it's pointing to the fact that the money is draining right out of Sydney residential property (in particular). IN turn housing and construction employs more than 10% of Australians in the workforce so it doesn't take much imagination to think about what this will do to the construction industry in the coming year.
The second massive problem is that Aussie consumers are tapped out
, they are tightening considerably on discretionary spending and can't possibly afford to take on any more debt as they're almost the most indebted households in the world as it is (second only to Switzerland). There's no consumption and/or stimulation fairy that will come to our rescue this time, nor will there be a China consumption/stimulation binge to save us this time either. So the only thing left is the Keynesian lever which Labor will be pushing with vigour; think Kevin Rudd funny money times a thousand. Shorten has already announced tens of billions for home solar power plants - don't think it will stop there, they'll be looking for any and all means necessary to put money into the hands of householders because they're Labor and the only thing they know in an emergency is SPEND SPEND SPEND. Only this time the Aussie dollar will collapse to reflect our terrible balance sheet... so we'll finally get the inflation that the RBA has been looking for.
I really think in another three years time we'll all be baying for Labor to be sacked - if they can make it that far. And it won't be necessarily their fault, it'll just be the fact that the neoliberal Thatcherite reforms set into train by Hawke and Keating will finally cannibalise the entire economy. Argentina here we come!