Here's a map of Melbourne's Urban Growth Boundary (the maximum extent to which suburbs will sprawl, in all directions from the centre of Melbourne).
https://www.sro.vic.gov.au/ckfinder/userfiles/files/Map-of-greater-Melbourne-2018.jpg
Using the Frankston line as an example is - yeah, pretty bad. Edit: the darker shade of blue in that map - existing footprint, the lighter shade is the areas that are either industrial or green wedge at present, or can be built on in future.
There's very limited suburban growth opportunities directly south along the Frankston line. Urban infil opportunities? Plenty but compared to the remaining land in the South-east (PAkenham/Cranbourne) whose population will likely double in 20 years, nope.
Pakenham is a special case that doesn't have long term plans to separate Vline from Metro (like what has happened for Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo on the western side of Melbourne). There are plans to increase passenger-carrying capacity (we're seeing it now, HCMTs, higher frequencies, HCS, MM1) but that's it. That'll probably do the job for 20 years.
The only other places where quad is going to be warranted, other than maybe Burnley-Camberwell, is in the West.
Melton is Vline, it will be metro at some point. Sunshine to Melton has just recently been duplicated but it'll probably be quadded to maintain Vline separation and allow local metro traffic to do the heavy lifting in all the new suburbs that are going to popup between Deer Park and Melton.
Ditto the RRL will either be duplicated or at least electrified and have more stations built along its length as it runs right through the heart of the main western growth areas.
Likewise, in the north, there'll probably be some quadding in the outer north when Upfield re-joins the Craigieburn line around Roxburgh Park and then it'll be back to 1 track pair north of Craigieburn where there are going to be another large amount of suburbs built. This is also the area set aside as an access point for an HSR line so the corridor reservation will be wide and potentially have more track built in the long term.
Other than that, express services on quaded track is pretty much useless.
SRL is connecting disparate suburbs and brushing off / overlooking the times it's going to take to travel between a range of varying sized suburb nodes is not a good idea. As someone has already said, Clayton - Box Hill will take about 1/3 the time it takes to drive in peak / take a bus now.