Suburban Rail Loop (Election promise)

 
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
@TrueBelievers. No the Airport West Junction is not just SG. BG runs until Keilor Park Drive. From there it becomes Dual Gauge until Belair Ave in Tullamarine. The SG splits and joins the SG only track and the DG becomes BG again. Just past the Western Ring Road underpass there are 2 BG tracks before merging with the V/Line BG at  Broadmeadows.


Mannie
BaysideManny
yes a dogs breakfast. The BG and DG bits are not in good condition.

Due for serious maintenance, so just make it 2 DG and be done with it.
That would increase the carry capacity significantly, eliminating UP and DOWN trains fighting for a path.

cheers
John

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  True Believers Chief Commissioner

@TrueBelievers. No the Airport West Junction is not just SG. BG runs until Keilor Park Drive. From there it becomes Dual Gauge until Belair Ave in Tullamarine. The SG splits and joins the SG only track and the DG becomes BG again. Just past the Western Ring Road underpass there are 2 BG tracks before merging with the V/Line BG at  Broadmeadows.


Mannie
BaysideManny
Thanks for the insight.
  Yappo Chief Train Controller

It's a BS article trying to infer that there is a problem between state & Fed ALP where none exists. Terril's views are usually considered rubbish by many PT experts in the field, but the quote is on point. There is no current quote from a Fed ALP member in the article, only previous quotes on the importance of the IA process.

Fact, Fed ALP have committed to $2.2B for the first 4 years and promised extra funding. Fact, the new ALP govt wants all future funding for major infrastructure projects to have been assessed by IA given the disregard for the process and the rorting by the Libs.

Thus, SRL Stage 1 will be assessed by IA as it rightly should and that should reinforce the benefits as shown by current business case. This process will take around 18-24 months. It will be finalised just in time for the Feds to announce extra funding for SRL Stage 1 prior to the 2025 election. Can probably expect a min of a billion a year from the Feds. This will add up to the $11B-$12B sought by the state govt from the Feds for Stage 1.

As for Bach stating that the state govt, "needs to show where the money is coming from?". Clearly, he is as politically irrelevant as the state Libs are in still pushing EWL. The Andrews govt has already commited $9.3B for the next 4 years without ANY support from the previous Lib Fed govt. The fact that the new ALP govt have allocated a minimum of $2.2B is a bonus!
I do not agree with what the Grattan Institute utters in many respects. Some of them would rather us return to the horse and cart then spend money on Transport.

Having said that I am not entirely happy with the direction of Public Transport in this state. It is all about mega infrastructure projects with at huge cost and lengthy lead times. The Government is not interested in small infill projects or making meaningful improvements to anything that is not heavy rail. To highlight this, the Eastern Leg of the SRL is mooted to cost $25 Billion. I reckon that is conservative. Even at $25 Billion, that is $1.9 Billion a year till 2035. In contrast the entire Victorian Bus Network will receive just $109 Million.
BaysideManny
Govt has stated many times it will cost between $30B to $34.5: https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/suburban-rail-loop/about/faqs I think that we can assume the higher figure at least.

Let's round that to $35B. State has funded $9.3B until end of 25/26FY. Feds thrown in $2.2B. Assume that the Feds will commit a minimum $11B total. That leaves the state funding another $15B between mid 2026 to scheduled opening in 2035.
  Yappo Chief Train Controller

If my "news" is accurate, there will be no SRL, no Metro 2 nor anything else for PT for decades to come. The news on my grapevine is that the beer virus poopshow has created such a massive hole in the state finances, there'll be no money for anything. The cutbacks that will be required to make up these deficits will be so severe, they would make the efforts of the Kennett government look like a Sunday picnic.
Your "news" on your so called grapevine is clearly a complete "poopshow" perhaps fed by crazy anti-vaxers and QAnon type loonies? To suggest that, "there will be no SRL......nor anything else for PT for decades to come" is an absolutely farcical and nonsensical assertion.
Yappo
There will be loads of SRL press in the next 12 hours as preliminary works officially began today.

https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/works-start-today-victorias-suburban-rail-loop
  True Believers Chief Commissioner

Govt has stated many times it will cost between $30B to $34.5: https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/suburban-rail-loop/about/faqs I think that we can assume the higher figure at least.

Let's round that to $35B. State has funded $9.3B until end of 25/26FY. Feds thrown in $2.2B. Assume that the Feds will commit a minimum $11B total. That leaves the state funding another $15B between mid 2026 to scheduled opening in 2035.
Yappo
The problem is that the business case economic appraisal document shows $30.7B-$50.5B for stages 1 and 2.

If stage 1 is $30B-$34.5B, it leaves about 25B left for stage 2.

This makes it a massive difference in terms of the estimated costs used for the BCR and the actual costs. Honestly a project like this should be around the $20B-25B mark, including rolling stock and other facilities included.
  LeroyW Junior Train Controller

Location: Awaiting MM2
Now that it has 'started' should the thread be renamed?

It's not just an election promise any more Laughing
  Lockspike Chief Commissioner

@TrueBelievers. No the Airport West Junction is not just SG. BG runs until Keilor Park Drive. From there it becomes Dual Gauge until Belair Ave in Tullamarine. The SG splits and joins the SG only track and the DG becomes BG again. Just past the Western Ring Road underpass there are 2 BG tracks before merging with the V/Line BG at  Broadmeadows.


Mannie
yes a dogs breakfast. The BG and DG bits are not in good condition.

Due for serious maintenance, so just make it 2 DG and be done with it.
That would increase the carry capacity significantly, eliminating UP and DOWN trains fighting for a path.

cheers
John
justarider
IIRC, the DG bit (with appropriate turnouts) is to create a SG crossing loop. The idea being to stand a SG train on the apparently under-utilised BG to make a crossing with other SG trains. I'm sure the space could be found to have a SG loop separate from the BG.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
@TrueBelievers. No the Airport West Junction is not just SG. BG runs until Keilor Park Drive. From there it becomes Dual Gauge until Belair Ave in Tullamarine. The SG splits and joins the SG only track and the DG becomes BG again. Just past the Western Ring Road underpass there are 2 BG tracks before merging with the V/Line BG at  Broadmeadows.


Mannie
yes a dogs breakfast. The BG and DG bits are not in good condition.

Due for serious maintenance, so just make it 2 DG and be done with it.
That would increase the carry capacity significantly, eliminating UP and DOWN trains fighting for a path.

cheers
John
IIRC, the DG bit (with appropriate turnouts) is to create a SG crossing loop. The idea being to stand a SG train on the apparently under-utilised BG to make a crossing with other SG trains. I'm sure the space could be found to have a SG loop separate from the BG.
Lockspike
A crossing loop is a poor (ie: cheapskate) substitute for two way running. Is not Inland Rail about incressing the number and size of trains?

They're about to be squeezed for room due to the Airport train, so some rejig of the lines is needed anyway.

As there is already 2 tracks for the whole distance,
making that 2 DG lines would make for more efficient use of the SG trains, without being upset by the occassional BG.

cheers
John
  Yappo Chief Train Controller

Govt has stated many times it will cost between $30B to $34.5: https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/suburban-rail-loop/about/faqs I think that we can assume the higher figure at least.

Let's round that to $35B. State has funded $9.3B until end of 25/26FY. Feds thrown in $2.2B. Assume that the Feds will commit a minimum $11B total. That leaves the state funding another $15B between mid 2026 to scheduled opening in 2035.
The problem is that the business case economic appraisal document shows $30.7B-$50.5B for stages 1 and 2.

If stage 1 is $30B-$34.5B, it leaves about 25B left for stage 2.

This makes it a massive difference in terms of the estimated costs used for the BCR and the actual costs. Honestly a project like this should be around the $20B-25B mark, including rolling stock and other facilities included.
True Believers
We've both been here before last August when responding to yet another silly assertion by another poster that Syd Metro was costing half per km. Since then, I've seen a more recent figure of $28B for Syd Metro West (24km).

Your suggestion that SRL stage 1 should cost $20B-$25B does appear to very much on the low ball side given that it is 26km long (obviously less stations than Metro West). I'd see the $25B as the bare bones min. The $30B seems a more realistic min. We'll have a better idea as to the exact cost by 2025 when the govt needs to make the next big funding allocation.

For Stage 2, imho any discussion regarding costings is completely irrelevant at this time. Stage 2 will be deferred with a change of govt. - likely in 2026 or 2030 if the Libs keep being a mess. It is rare in the last 40 years for state govts to win a 4th term , a 5th is unheard of. The Libs will defer it - especially with it being a pet project of the Premier - when they do win power on the basis of a debt crisis & budget repair. We'll then need to wait until after 1 or 2 or 3 terms until an ALP govt is elected again.

There is an unlikely scenario where the ALP wins a 4th term in 2026 and then decides to give Stage 2 the go ahead mid term so that work can start before 2030 - which is an ideal timeframe if $ were unlimited. However, with all the other works/exts that need to be done by the end of the decade/early 30s; more LRX, Melton & WV sparking, City Loop reconfig., Clyde, Wollert & Wallan exts, Fishermens Bend LRT & associated MM2 prep, more regional expansion & upgrades etc.....
There just will not be enough $ for Stage 2.

We have to see how the next 2-3 years unfold and if Melb/Vic does return to being the nations economic powerhouse that it was in the years before Covid hit. (Vic did have the highest March quarter GDP growth in Oz)

Thus, the chances of Stage 2 getting the go ahead before 2034 seem to slim. Who knows what the updated costing will be by then?
  True Believers Chief Commissioner

Govt has stated many times it will cost between $30B to $34.5: https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/suburban-rail-loop/about/faqs I think that we can assume the higher figure at least.

Let's round that to $35B. State has funded $9.3B until end of 25/26FY. Feds thrown in $2.2B. Assume that the Feds will commit a minimum $11B total. That leaves the state funding another $15B between mid 2026 to scheduled opening in 2035.
The problem is that the business case economic appraisal document shows $30.7B-$50.5B for stages 1 and 2.

If stage 1 is $30B-$34.5B, it leaves about 25B left for stage 2.

This makes it a massive difference in terms of the estimated costs used for the BCR and the actual costs. Honestly a project like this should be around the $20B-25B mark, including rolling stock and other facilities included.
We've both been here before last August when responding to yet another silly assertion by another poster that Syd Metro was costing half per km. Since then, I've seen a more recent figure of $28B for Syd Metro West (24km).

Your suggestion that SRL stage 1 should cost $20B-$25B does appear to very much on the low ball side given that it is 26km long (obviously less stations than Metro West). I'd see the $25B as the bare bones min. The $30B seems a more realistic min. We'll have a better idea as to the exact cost by 2025 when the govt needs to make the next big funding allocation.

For Stage 2, imho any discussion regarding costings is completely irrelevant at this time. Stage 2 will be deferred with a change of govt. - likely in 2026 or 2030 if the Libs keep being a mess. It is rare in the last 40 years for state govts to win a 4th term , a 5th is unheard of. The Libs will defer it - especially with it being a pet project of the Premier - when they do win power on the basis of a debt crisis & budget repair. We'll then need to wait until after 1 or 2 or 3 terms until an ALP govt is elected again.

There is an unlikely scenario where the ALP wins a 4th term in 2026 and then decides to give Stage 2 the go ahead mid term so that work can start before 2030 - which is an ideal timeframe if $ were unlimited. However, with all the other works/exts that need to be done by the end of the decade/early 30s; more LRX, Melton & WV sparking, City Loop reconfig., Clyde, Wollert & Wallan exts, Fishermens Bend LRT & associated MM2 prep, more regional expansion & upgrades etc.....
There just will not be enough $ for Stage 2.

We have to see how the next 2-3 years unfold and if Melb/Vic does return to being the nations economic powerhouse that it was in the years before Covid hit. (Vic did have the highest March quarter GDP growth in Oz)

Thus, the chances of Stage 2 getting the go ahead before 2034 seem to slim. Who knows what the updated costing will be by then?
Yappo
Have you looked at the business case? Problem is the economical BCR 1.1-1.7 relies on the much lower costings than what is suggested now? Unless they're making the costings up as time goes along, why does it use such a low ball figure in the business case? I didn't come up with the $30.7B-$50.5B figure for both stages 1 and 2, that's in the SRL business case. The fact I'm using the 50.5B which is the upper end in the SRL business case shows you something is wrong in the costings.
  Yappo Chief Train Controller

I've perused the BC. I intentionally don't mention the BCR. I don't refer to it, I don't debate it because it is irrelevant imho. Will it be incorrect in this case? Most likely. Let's see what the IA assement process determines. If you were a decision maker, would you cancel the project now if the costing for Stage 1 was $34B?

How many major projects in Oz in the last 10 years have ended up over budget? Westconnex (NSW AG was scathing about the BC and off book costs), Syd Metro, MM1, Inland rail (increased some 200% from 2010 costing and 50% since the BC in 2015), Westage Tunnel, Syd Metro West to name but a few, have all gone over budget. Was any project cancelled? NSW is currently deferring a bunch of major projects due to increased budgets. MARL shows the folly of that for Melb. when we could have had a rail link 50 years ago for $100m.

The fact is that SRL Stage 1 costs are comparable to both Syd Metro and Syd Metro West project costs per km. Thankfully, we are not at the NYC level of $11B-$12B for 3.2km of tunnels with East Side Access! SRL needs to be seen as much more than a loop metro project, it is a precinct hub development planning project that will reshape Melb for the rest of the century. There is precinct value capture opportunities and an increased tax base that will off set some of the budget expenditure.

Stage 1 looks to be $34B at this time, but we'll have a better idea in 3.5 years when the next batch of funding is due to be announced. If the voters don't like price tag then the ALP will not be relected. The Libs can scale back the project or take a $ hit and cancel contracts. They won't go ahead with Stage 2 regardless of when they are elected.
  True Believers Chief Commissioner

Not necessarily disregarding the project, just seemingly all the infrastructure projects are escalating in price dramatically over the past few years. Yes, major projects are bound to cost more than initially expected, but the cost per kilometre on the projects seems to get much higher each year. Whether it's a constraint in the industry and other factors like covid-19, I can understand. But a fair bit of it, is sticking with lots of major projects all at once, which might be not the optimal approach to getting infrastructure done.

Hopefully this means new projects will be smaller and less grandiose kind of projects to fill in the gaps and also doesn't break the budget. There's already too many major projects in the pipeline, I think it's enough to keep us going for a decade.
  Tii Chief Train Controller

Not necessarily disregarding the project, just seemingly all the infrastructure projects are escalating in price dramatically over the past few years. Yes, major projects are bound to cost more than initially expected, but the cost per kilometre on the projects seems to get much higher each year. Whether it's a constraint in the industry and other factors like covid-19, I can understand. But a fair bit of it, is sticking with lots of major projects all at once, which might be not the optimal approach to getting infrastructure done.

Hopefully this means new projects will be smaller and less grandiose kind of projects to fill in the gaps and also doesn't break the budget. There's already too many major projects in the pipeline, I think it's enough to keep us going for a decade.
True Believers
The costs are certainly high. I can see how many years/decades of not doing regular incremental infrastructure investment from all governments, has left this mad rush to catch up to make a workable PT/road system again, which no doubt has contributed toward the massive spend over the past decade up to 2025. There will always be something to do but I also hope attention will turn to the smaller things to make PT better on buses and frequency as the metro tunnel/LX/RR projects wrap up in this long round of construction.  As you say, SRL aside there is already enough keep things moving along for another decade to bring more functionality. Where the money now comes from I don't know.
  BaysideManny Assistant Commissioner

The Melbourne Metro should be completed as a Package of works. Not just complete the tunnel but also reinstate the Somerton link.

For the MARL which is essentially just a branch line for the Melbourne Metro, improve the Broad Gauge between Airport West Junction and Jacana so that Seymour and Shepparton trains can use this corridor instead of the Essendon corridor and so releasing extra capacity for the Craigieburn line.
Do you mean improve or add BG btw Airport west junction and Jacana, it's just SG right?

Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

Either way, yeah I agree some more smaller projects to fill in gaps of the major ones is a good idea. There are some smaller duplications and individual grade seps, but smaller extensions and improvements to other modes like buses and trams would be nice to see.

They did announce a small package of accessibility improvements, but if that was expanded would be highly beneficial.
True Believers
Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
BaysideManny
Wha???  That makes no sense.

IF and when sparks are extended to Wallan, that is just an extension of the existing Craigeburn service.

Why is hells name does Metro need 2 routes from Craigeburn into the CBD, especially when they would re-merge at North Melb.
  John.Z Deputy Commissioner

Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
Wha???  That makes no sense.

IF and when sparks are extended to Wallan, that is just an extension of the existing Craigeburn service.

Why is hells name does Metro need 2 routes from Craigeburn into the CBD, especially when they would re-merge at North Melb.
justarider
The reason for extending the Upfield Line to Wallan via Craigieburn is for capacity reasons. Craigieburn trains are full when they hit North Melbourne, Upfield trains less so. Extending Craigieburn trains towards Wallan means that passengers south of Essendon get left behind. Extending Upfield trains towards Wallan means that everyone gets where they need to go. Simple as that. Nothing

The only reason Wallan-Upfield will go via Craigieburn is because it's a current rail reserve, nothing to do with Craigieburn specifically needing it.
  True Believers Chief Commissioner

Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
Wha???  That makes no sense.

IF and when sparks are extended to Wallan, that is just an extension of the existing Craigeburn service.

Why is hells name does Metro need 2 routes from Craigeburn into the CBD, especially when they would re-merge at North Melb.
The reason for extending the Upfield Line to Wallan via Craigieburn is for capacity reasons. Craigieburn trains are full when they hit North Melbourne, Upfield trains less so. Extending Craigieburn trains towards Wallan means that passengers south of Essendon get left behind. Extending Upfield trains towards Wallan means that everyone gets where they need to go. Simple as that. Nothing

The only reason Wallan-Upfield will go via Craigieburn is because it's a current rail reserve, nothing to do with Craigieburn specifically needing it.
John.Z
Then why can't the Seymour and Shepparton service also use the Upfield corridor, since it's less congested than the Craigeburn corridor?
  Djebel Chief Train Controller

Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
Wha???  That makes no sense.

IF and when sparks are extended to Wallan, that is just an extension of the existing Craigeburn service.

Why is hells name does Metro need 2 routes from Craigeburn into the CBD, especially when they would re-merge at North Melb.
The reason for extending the Upfield Line to Wallan via Craigieburn is for capacity reasons. Craigieburn trains are full when they hit North Melbourne, Upfield trains less so. Extending Craigieburn trains towards Wallan means that passengers south of Essendon get left behind. Extending Upfield trains towards Wallan means that everyone gets where they need to go. Simple as that. Nothing

The only reason Wallan-Upfield will go via Craigieburn is because it's a current rail reserve, nothing to do with Craigieburn specifically needing it.
Then why can't the Seymour and Shepparton service also use the Upfield corridor, since it's less congested than the Craigeburn corridor?
True Believers
They used to do so at times, and may do so again in the future.  But as the line beyond Upfield is currently booked out of service, no trains currently use it.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
Wha???  That makes no sense.

IF and when sparks are extended to Wallan, that is just an extension of the existing Craigeburn service.

Why is hells name does Metro need 2 routes from Craigeburn into the CBD, especially when they would re-merge at North Melb.
The reason for extending the Upfield Line to Wallan via Craigieburn is for capacity reasons. Craigieburn trains are full when they hit North Melbourne, Upfield trains less so. Extending Craigieburn trains towards Wallan means that passengers south of Essendon get left behind. Extending Upfield trains towards Wallan means that everyone gets where they need to go. Simple as that. Nothing

The only reason Wallan-Upfield will go via Craigieburn is because it's a current rail reserve, nothing to do with Craigieburn specifically needing it.
John.Z
Capacity !!

The morning peak is a woeful 9tph, no wonder the trains are packed. That is all to do with shareing the city loop with 2 other lines.

IF you were to send more trains down the Upfield line, where do you think they could go once reaching North Melb. An absolute roadblock.

Of course there already is a solution . MM1. That's another 12tph released right there, available for Craigeburn (and beyond?).
A lot more extra trains  than anything a Somerton link might do.

There will be a time to contemplate sending Seymour/Shepparton via Sunshine to ease the squeeze. Not ideal that Vline falls into the Sunbury trap and crawls behind SAS, so the longer route may become the quicker option.

cheers
John
  railblogger Chief Commissioner

Location: At the back of the train, quitely doing exactly what you'd expect.
I think it comes down to how much growth you get on the Craigieburn line. If it's so much that even the proposed City Loop reconfiguration (which would give the line its own tracks through the city) isn't enough, then it would make more sense to extend the Upfield line. Otherwise, go ahead and extend the Craigieburn line.
  ARodH Chief Train Controller

Location: East Oakleigh, Vic
Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
Wha???  That makes no sense.

IF and when sparks are extended to Wallan, that is just an extension of the existing Craigeburn service.

Why is hells name does Metro need 2 routes from Craigeburn into the CBD, especially when they would re-merge at North Melb.
The reason for extending the Upfield Line to Wallan via Craigieburn is for capacity reasons. Craigieburn trains are full when they hit North Melbourne, Upfield trains less so. Extending Craigieburn trains towards Wallan means that passengers south of Essendon get left behind. Extending Upfield trains towards Wallan means that everyone gets where they need to go. Simple as that. Nothing

The only reason Wallan-Upfield will go via Craigieburn is because it's a current rail reserve, nothing to do with Craigieburn specifically needing it.
Then why can't the Seymour and Shepparton service also use the Upfield corridor, since it's less congested than the Craigeburn corridor?
They used to do so at times, and may do so again in the future.  But as the line beyond Upfield is currently booked out of service, no trains currently use it.
Djebel
Also the plant that has a driveway over the line has decided that land and surrounds is theirs by squatters rights!
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

”Land that can’t be claimed in an adverse possession application

Section 7, 7A, 7B, 7AB and 7C of the Limitation of Actions Act 1958 and legal precedent govern land that can’t be claimed. This includes:
  • Crown land, including government roads
  • land owned by the Public Transport Corporation or Victorian Rail Track
  • ……………………………………………………………………………………….”
  BaysideManny Assistant Commissioner

Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
Wha???  That makes no sense.

IF and when sparks are extended to Wallan, that is just an extension of the existing Craigeburn service.

Why is hells name does Metro need 2 routes from Craigeburn into the CBD, especially when they would re-merge at North Melb.
The reason for extending the Upfield Line to Wallan via Craigieburn is for capacity reasons. Craigieburn trains are full when they hit North Melbourne, Upfield trains less so. Extending Craigieburn trains towards Wallan means that passengers south of Essendon get left behind. Extending Upfield trains towards Wallan means that everyone gets where they need to go. Simple as that. Nothing

The only reason Wallan-Upfield will go via Craigieburn is because it's a current rail reserve, nothing to do with Craigieburn specifically needing it.
Capacity !!

The morning peak is a woeful 9tph, no wonder the trains are packed. That is all to do with shareing the city loop with 2 other lines.

IF you were to send more trains down the Upfield line, where do you think they could go once reaching North Melb. An absolute roadblock.

Of course there already is a solution . MM1. That's another 12tph released right there, available for Craigeburn (and beyond?).
A lot more extra trains  than anything a Somerton link might do.

There will be a time to contemplate sending Seymour/Shepparton via Sunshine to ease the squeeze. Not ideal that Vline falls into the Sunbury trap and crawls behind SAS, so the longer route may become the quicker option.

cheers
John
justarider
But wouldnt a Craigieburn and Wallan via Upfield provide some relief for Craigieburn and Roxburgh Park passengers as they will have a choice. Melbourne must get away from this branch line mentality.

If they made the whole freight infrastructure dual gauge Seymour/Shepparton could use that which would result in them not crawling behind a SAS Upfield/Wallan or Sunbury. They can even have a station at Airport West for Seymour services. I do concede, however that opening a station for 1 train an hour is less than ideal.

Mannie
  BaysideManny Assistant Commissioner

Also with the Somerton link it's probably quicker for the BG to run via the Upfield corridor than diverge via Sunshine. Only real issues with Upfield is you'd have to duplicate and grade separate some of the inner crossings first, but has quite a bit of capacity if that's done.

What I meant is the Somerton Link to be duplicated and electrified and used by trains to Wallan, where as the express Seymour and Shepparton services can use the infrastructure via Sunshine.


Mannie
Wha???  That makes no sense.

IF and when sparks are extended to Wallan, that is just an extension of the existing Craigeburn service.

Why is hells name does Metro need 2 routes from Craigeburn into the CBD, especially when they would re-merge at North Melb.
The reason for extending the Upfield Line to Wallan via Craigieburn is for capacity reasons. Craigieburn trains are full when they hit North Melbourne, Upfield trains less so. Extending Craigieburn trains towards Wallan means that passengers south of Essendon get left behind. Extending Upfield trains towards Wallan means that everyone gets where they need to go. Simple as that. Nothing

The only reason Wallan-Upfield will go via Craigieburn is because it's a current rail reserve, nothing to do with Craigieburn specifically needing it.
Then why can't the Seymour and Shepparton service also use the Upfield corridor, since it's less congested than the Craigeburn corridor?
True Believers
So that they avoid crawling behind all station stoppers to Upfield/Wallan.


Mannie
  Yappo Chief Train Controller

Not necessarily disregarding the project, just seemingly all the infrastructure projects are escalating in price dramatically over the past few years. Yes, major projects are bound to cost more than initially expected, but the cost per kilometre on the projects seems to get much higher each year. Whether it's a constraint in the industry and other factors like covid-19, I can understand. But a fair bit of it, is sticking with lots of major projects all at once, which might be not the optimal approach to getting infrastructure done.

Hopefully this means new projects will be smaller and less grandiose kind of projects to fill in the gaps and also doesn't break the budget. There's already too many major projects in the pipeline, I think it's enough to keep us going for a decade.
True Believers
It has been known for a while now in various state govts. NSW stated 1 year ago that they had to start to consider a slow down and then this 3 months ago it was clear that future mega projects will be delayed given cost and budget issues. Two weeks ago they clearly stated that most projects would be deferred (except for Parra LR stage 2). Prior to the state budget the Vic Treasurer stated much the same, that there were too many projects inflating costs.

There have been so many large cost blow outs with NSW projects plus add in even more increased inflated material and labour costs beyond previous high levels, meant that there was little choice;

eg. L2&L3 cost $3.15B instead of $1.6B,
Sydney Metro budget is now $17B instead of original $12B,
West Metro already increased by $3B cost before work started,
Westconnex cost $21B from the original $14.8B budget!

That's $15B in blow outs. Enough to fund the WSA Metro!

(The Fed funded Inland Rail went from $4.7B estimate in 2010 to $10B in the 2015 BC, to a current $14.5B! That is expected to increase further to closer to $20B once completed!)

For Vic, the obvious big ones are MM1, Westgate Tunnel & NE Link.

With SRL being the priority, it obviously means that other projects will be deferred or delayed, MM2 being the obvious one, and a couple of exts. However, politically the ALP can't afford to do that with all projects. Especially, Melton & WV electrification. They need to still gradually progress these otherwise they'll get a backlash on this general issue in some safe ALP seats - there is already going to be a post Covid & current cost of living swing away from the govt in some safe seats.

There will be more Fed funds for Vic projects under the new Albo govt so that will help. In the upcoming election campaign the govt probably needs to announce a timeframe for the next term with a combo of Melton sparking, an extra WV/RRL station or two & the Clyde ext. WV sparking, Fishermens bend LR and Wollert ext could then potentially be done from 2026 to 30 should they win a 4th term (generally unlikely given state election history in Oz).

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