The End of the Internal Combustion Engine is Nigh

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2020 23:08
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
and tractors?  here in rural Victoria they often run 24/7 less 2 10 minute stops in the paddock to refuel and swap drivers. this happens multiple times a year as the work often has to be done to fit in with the weather.  I think it will be a fair while before electric tractors can handle this sort of work.  

The bigger issue at the moment is the lack of electricity to cope with summer with brown outs/blackouts becoming common in hot weather as the air-conditioning systems cool the inside of buildings and transfer the heat outside into the concrete jungle.  My area is a net exporter of electricity in summer due to the number of solar panels and amount of sunlight we get meaning they are usually generating full power.  Therefore we are unlikely to suffer a brown out as that would reduce the power available elsewhere in the state as they need a trickle of power off the grid to keep the inverters working so they can export the generated power elsewhere (just as a vehicle alternator needs some power in to generate much more power out).  Also electricity isn't cheap here making the economics of an electric vehicle less viable.

I am not against electric vehicles just realise they are not the cure-all some people think they are
HardWorkingMan
I think things like tractors, boats and planes are still along way off using alt energy sources (what ever that is). There will be some exceptions like that short commercial flight in Scotland that is going electric, that's because it works there.

However I ridden an electric snow mobile (prototype's used in a tourist business to test them), they work. Not going more than 40km from charging station, its fine, faster and quieter than petrol and no pollution when following behind. They do however need to be parked on charging stations over night to keep the battery warm, you cannot leave for long-periods.

Electric motor cross bikes, just watched Top Gear test them, as someone who lived on an acerage and had to put up with the Motor bike noise going through the power line corridor all weekend, thank F%$#$, the sooner the better. They also are faster, more torquey, lower centre of gravity, no dirty plugs, carbie issues etc etc. Again, unless going long distances, they work and most people can use them.

Electric cars, realistically with the battery technology available today, expanded fast charger network like many OS countries have, if rolled out to most models, 90% of car owners wouldn't even notice an impact on their driving experience. Most people just think it will. Don't believe me, in 10 years time, you won't have much choice.

Trucks and buses I think are best on H2.


So by 2050,
- most Coal power stations closed
- Gas power stations running more efficienctly than today and used less often
- roof top solar mostly standard on any structure
- many trucks/buses on H2,
- +85% of the cars/light vehicles on Electric
- increased use of PT
- and ideally a return to electric traction for some freight trains,

we pretty much have most of the CO2 issues covered. The O&G industry will not shut down, there is still huge demand for non-fuel use of hydro carbons such a plastics, PVC etc.

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  Carnot Minister for Railways

The Brits are banning the sale of new petrol, hybrid and diesel cars and vans after 2035:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123

I suppose they'll be diesel trucks around for a while.

Meanwhile in Oztrailia:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sharp-jump-in-electric-vehicle-sales-underscores-untapped-potential-20200202-p53wx3.html

Tesla sold just over 4000 EVs last year here.  Most after August when the Model 3 was released.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The Brits are banning the sale of new petrol, hybrid and diesel cars and vans after 2035:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123

I suppose they'll be diesel trucks around for a while.

Meanwhile in Oztrailia:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sharp-jump-in-electric-vehicle-sales-underscores-untapped-potential-20200202-p53wx3.html

Tesla sold just over 4000 EVs last year here.  Most after August when the Model 3 was released.
Carnot
Its very easy to ban something 17 years ahead of time without knowledge of what will replace it completely. So I would consider it more an "wish-list" than a ban until the science and engineering have the alternatives in the showroom. 2030's EV technology may cut it and likely will but not for foreseeable future.

Tesla had fully sold the 2019 quota available to Australia months, maybe a year in advance. The slow sales of EV's in Australia mostly represents the lack of EV's available to buy as not all EV's are available in RHD and tend to be sold in LHD markets long before LHD is released.

World wide the story is very similar with most EV models pre-sold prior to assembly even starting. The Nissan Leaf is one of the exceptions as Nissan invested heavily into the Leaf assembly capacity, but while sales were strong they didn't exceed capacity however the old Leaf was hardly attractive and certainly I don't think I could commit to something like that. The recent model Leaf e+ (PLUS) I think is however better and might work for Nissan although there is some questions over the air cooling system.

From what I've read EV production globally is rate limited by battery production availability, which is why Tesla focused on being both a car maker and battery maker from day one.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The Brits are banning the sale of new petrol, hybrid and diesel cars and vans after 2035:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123

I suppose they'll be diesel trucks around for a while.

Meanwhile in Oztrailia:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sharp-jump-in-electric-vehicle-sales-underscores-untapped-potential-20200202-p53wx3.html

Tesla sold just over 4000 EVs last year here.  Most after August when the Model 3 was released.

From what I've read EV production globally is rate limited by battery production availability, which is why Tesla focused on being both a car maker and battery maker from day one.
RTT_Rules
Absolutely correct.  As Jaguar have just found out....
https://www.caradvice.com.au/825949/jaguar-i-pace-battery-shortage/
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The Brits are banning the sale of new petrol, hybrid and diesel cars and vans after 2035:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51366123

I suppose they'll be diesel trucks around for a while.

Meanwhile in Oztrailia:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sharp-jump-in-electric-vehicle-sales-underscores-untapped-potential-20200202-p53wx3.html

Tesla sold just over 4000 EVs last year here.  Most after August when the Model 3 was released.

From what I've read EV production globally is rate limited by battery production availability, which is why Tesla focused on being both a car maker and battery maker from day one.
Absolutely correct.  As Jaguar have just found out....
https://www.caradvice.com.au/825949/jaguar-i-pace-battery-shortage/
Carnot

Interesting

Australia is 13% of the world car market and bought 7% of the i-pace. Not bad considering the current state of the fast charging network and lack of EV exposure into Australia in general.
  ANR Deputy Commissioner

The end of the internal combustion engine isn't nigh. With the severe storms that we have experienced on the east coast recently, there have been a series of power outages due to fallen trees/powerlines etc. Sadly, the gold plating of our poles and wires has been for nothing. The wires should be underground.

Without our coal fired electricity, and without solar power due to the cloud cover, how exactly will we power our Tesla 3?

I will stick to fossil fuel, until the engine falls out of my car. If it falls out after a date where combustion engined cars can no longer be sold, then I will buy a crate engine or reconditioned engine.
  ANR Deputy Commissioner

The end of the internal combustion engine isn't nigh. With the severe storms that we have experienced on the east coast recently, there have been a series of power outages due to fallen trees/powerlines etc. Sadly, the gold plating of our poles and wires has been for nothing. The wires should be underground.

Without our coal fired electricity, and without solar power due to the cloud cover, how exactly will we power our Tesla 3?

I will stick to fossil fuel, until the engine falls out of my car. If it falls out after a date where combustion engined cars can no longer be sold, then I will buy a crate engine or reconditioned engine.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The end of the internal combustion engine isn't nigh. With the severe storms that we have experienced on the east coast recently, there have been a series of power outages due to fallen trees/powerlines etc. Sadly, the gold plating of our poles and wires has been for nothing. The wires should be underground.

Without our coal fired electricity, and without solar power due to the cloud cover, how exactly will we power our Tesla 3?

I will stick to fossil fuel, until the engine falls out of my car. If it falls out after a date where combustion engined cars can no longer be sold, then I will buy a crate engine or reconditioned engine.
ANR
A few basics

So when the power goes out you immediately have a flat battery in your car?
Why is that when some people think EV, they assume the car is always near flat? Hint: If the car has a 400km range and you charge it every night, then when you wake up in the morning you have 8 x the distance driven by the average Australian for the day.

What about everything else? Are you one of these people that if the power goes out after 1h you need to be rescued because life outside the 21st century, even for a few min is intolerable?

I suppose you haven't heard about the technology where EV's (if at home) can be used to power the house through peak and even a general power outage? The Nissan Leaf's have this feature designed into them now! Not sure on others.

If the power goes out to the local Servo, how many have back up genie to keep pumping full?

How long does the power typically go out for black outs?

A quick google search found this old data but still interesting in the same. https://www.slideshare.net/mikedecamp/eaton-australianew-zealand-blackout-tracker-2011-annual-report

Without our coal fired electricity, and without solar power due to the cloud cover, how exactly will we power our Tesla 3?
If this was the only thing holding anyone back from buying an EV, then we have bigger issues than worrying about EV's.


Again  most of the so called anti-EV arguments are nothing but BS hype. There are some very valid reasons why a user should not own an EV, even in say another 5 - 10 years where range is longer, cars are cheaper, charging stations many times more than now including being standard fitting in most garages and carports and faster and model range almost as much as ICE (internal Combustion Engine) today. But short of living as real life Crocodile Dundee, few of these reasons apply to most of us, we just think they do.  

I love the comments, "oh it takes so long to recharge if driving to Mel", long being less than 45min, some less than 30min per charge. No one bothers to count the stop time for fuel including pee and food break for a trip few even do once a year, including Aaron's drag race across Germany when his bladder outlasted a modern diesel's ~1000km driving range. Meanwhile refueling time for the weekly commute is quietly ignored as the if you can charge at home, an EV is ready to go before you are. If you cannot charge at home this makes things less convenient, but not inconvenient.

Disclaimer:
Do I own an EV now? No, because as of today they don't make EV's in the type of car that I want to drive (Ford Ranger) for now. The first are expected around 2025.
Does my wife own an EV now? No, because when she bought her car in 2015 (2014 model) then wasn't a model available and this car is not due for replacement for another 2 years with her doing 1250 km/week. Its replacement will however more than likely be an EV because she wants one and there are a few models both on the market now and coming that suit her needs.
Does teenage boy early teenage boy or most of his friends want to drive an ICE , NO! I'm surprised how quickly they have relegated ICE powered cars as relics of the past.

As for your future ICE, while I don't personally believe they will be stopped outright, their numbers will start dwindle post 2025 as indicated by the manufacturers. But even then it may not be the driver, its whether you are allowed to drive it and where that is likely to dictate. Once cities start banning ICE engines in the CBD and/or inner burb's or tax those who do, the population will drive banning quickly around the world when people get to live in a environment without engine noise and car emissions of even modern cars.
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
Saw a Commodore today with a sticker that says: "Powered by recycled dinosaurs". Laughing
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Saw a Commodore today with a sticker that says: "Powered by recycled dinosaurs". Laughing
Graham4405
haha

I know EV's started out under the guise to deal with biggest myth of the 2000's "peak oil" and also CO2 emissions. But I think EV's will eventually be the majority of cars on the road simply because they make a better car to own and drive that is faster, quieter, more reliable and cheaper to operate.
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
Can't wait for the Bathurst 1000 in 2035.  4 stops in the pits for half an hour to recharge the car or will they do a battery replacement when they do the brakes?
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Can't wait for the Bathurst 1000 in 2035.  4 stops in the pits for half an hour to recharge the car or will they do a battery replacement when they do the brakes?
Donald
Might be an endurance race in its purest form.
The last battery that goes flat wins.

The Bathurst ???
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Informative video here on why long-haul EV trucks aren't going to be competitive with diesel trucks.  Watch the 2nd half in particular:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJL9MasBFvM
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Can't wait for the Bathurst 1000 in 2035.  4 stops in the pits for half an hour to recharge the car or will they do a battery replacement when they do the brakes?
Might be an endurance race in its purest form.
The last battery that goes flat wins.

The Bathurst ???
michaelgm
Who knows, look at the evolution of F1 which is now a strategic race to manage fuel consumption. Manual gear boxes are basically a thing of the past.

While 1000kW batteries are only just around the corner, or it just be a battery change is part of endurance races? EV's handle better in corners so future racing will be interesting.


Street legal stock EV's have already started pi$$ing on super cars and others where guys have spent $10,000's and 100's of hours on the engine in drag races.
https://www.motor1.com/news/383689/tesla-audi-drag-race/

or this one thats been gutted flogging anything burning a hydrocarbon.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARzujfRiQ3c
I like the comment in the "comments", future street racing will be silent.

Or this guy


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FCb70blEMw


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHRICKM03Sc
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Informative video here on why long-haul EV trucks aren't going to be competitive with diesel trucks.  Watch the 2nd half in particular:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJL9MasBFvM
Carnot
I think the video demonstrates very well why EV's will quickly take over at least 50% of the market by 2030 as much as why they have limitations now. ie rate of change for development in battery technology.

The other issue I was told in Dubai that the local car dealers (in Dubai each car brand has only one dealer or franchise, like all Macca's are owned by the one company) have resisted bringing in EV models from their brand suppliers because of the lower maintenance costs, which is where they make all their money as if you buy a Toyota say, you can only service it at Toyota. Hence if Toyota dealerships start selling cats with less than 50% of the maintenance requirements = less income.

However very aggressive govt EV targets have now changed their minds, that and a surprisingly rapid take up of Tesla's by cashed up locals who have a strong history of buying prestige European cars such as BMW and Merc. At work there are about 10 Tesla owners I know of and the local electricity provider has meetings every Qtr on all major sites with EV owners to discuss experiences such as charging and would they buy another one.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Can't wait for the Bathurst 1000 in 2035.  4 stops in the pits for half an hour to recharge the car or will they do a battery replacement when they do the brakes?
Might be an endurance race in its purest form.
The last battery that goes flat wins.

The Bathurst ???
michaelgm
Formula E is looking at the Gen 3 car having rapid charging (in the order of 30 seconds) at pit stops instead of doing the whole race non-stop. The Gen 1 car had each driver come into the pits and swap to a second car to complete the 45 minute race, while the current Gen 2 car does the race in one go.

There's no way that the safety regulations will allow the driver to stay in the car or the pit crew do other work on the car while that happens (similar to how almost all endurance races don't allow other work during refuelling) so it would be quite well suited to endurance racing where you have a team of 2-4 drivers swapping at pit stops.

The new unified Le Mans Daytona prototype rules will have a chassis/body configuration that would allow for battery swaps, in turn allowing for slower charging that would be more efficient and safer. This could lead to interesting race strategy options, if teams are permitted to choose their combination of charging the car or swapping batteries.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Can't wait for the Bathurst 1000 in 2035.  4 stops in the pits for half an hour to recharge the car or will they do a battery replacement when they do the brakes?
Might be an endurance race in its purest form.
The last battery that goes flat wins.

The Bathurst ???
Formula E is looking at the Gen 3 car having rapid charging (in the order of 30 seconds) at pit stops instead of doing the whole race non-stop. The Gen 1 car had each driver come into the pits and swap to a second car to complete the 45 minute race, while the current Gen 2 car does the race in one go.

There's no way that the safety regulations will allow the driver to stay in the car or the pit crew do other work on the car while that happens (similar to how almost all endurance races don't allow other work during refuelling) so it would be quite well suited to endurance racing where you have a team of 2-4 drivers swapping at pit stops.

The new unified Le Mans Daytona prototype rules will have a chassis/body configuration that would allow for battery swaps, in turn allowing for slower charging that would be more efficient and safer. This could lead to interesting race strategy options, if teams are permitted to choose their combination of charging the car or swapping batteries.
justapassenger
Why would fast charging with the driver in the car be a safety issue? Its not like there is a fuel tank to catch fire or spill fuel.

But yes the times of changing and I suspect for nearly all of us here, we will one day with almost certainty within the next decade watch the last F1 race using an internal combustion engines.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Why would fast charging with the driver in the car be a safety issue? Its not like there is a fuel tank to catch fire or spill fuel.
RTT_Rules
No fuel tank, but there's no way they'll be staying on board or other work done while a 200+ MJ battery is charged in under 30 seconds. Even if they halve the battery capacity (which would allow for a lighter car and faster lap times) 100MJ in 30 seconds is still a charge rate of 3.3 MW going through a temporary connector.

KERS and the MGU-K/MGU-H systems in F1 have caused enough problems at pit stops, despite them having a capacity lower than 1 MJ and F1 having no refuelling at pit stops.

There's also the sporting element of it. Making pit stops slow introduces additional strategic options. At the Bathurst 12 Hour a couple of weeks ago, Dirk Werner managed to bring his team's Porsche back from the dead into a potential winning position with an incredible 41 lap run (255km) on one tank of fuel while still maintaining enough pace to turn his economy run into a net gain against the teams doing 31-35 laps per stop and running faster lap times.

But yes the times of changing and I suspect for nearly all of us here, we will one day with almost certainty within the next decade watch the last F1 race using an internal combustion engines.
RTT_Rules
It will come at some point, but I'd be surprised if it is before 2030.

The F1 and LMP1 rules over the last few years have directly led to the creation of the highest efficiency ICE and ICE hybrid drivetrains ever produced, and there will be space for them to keep doing so for as long as ICE vehicles maintain part of the market.
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
if Toyota dealerships start selling cats...
RTT_Rules
Unlikely??? Shocked
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Why would fast charging with the driver in the car be a safety issue? Its not like there is a fuel tank to catch fire or spill fuel.
No fuel tank, but there's no way they'll be staying on board or other work done while a 200+ MJ battery is charged in under 30 seconds. Even if they halve the battery capacity (which would allow for a lighter car and faster lap times) 100MJ in 30 seconds is still a charge rate of 3.3 MW going through a temporary connector.

KERS and the MGU-K/MGU-H systems in F1 have caused enough problems at pit stops, despite them having a capacity lower than 1 MJ and F1 having no refuelling at pit stops.

There's also the sporting element of it. Making pit stops slow introduces additional strategic options. At the Bathurst 12 Hour a couple of weeks ago, Dirk Werner managed to bring his team's Porsche back from the dead into a potential winning position with an incredible 41 lap run (255km) on one tank of fuel while still maintaining enough pace to turn his economy run into a net gain against the teams doing 31-35 laps per stop and running faster lap times.

But yes the times of changing and I suspect for nearly all of us here, we will one day with almost certainty within the next decade watch the last F1 race using an internal combustion engines.
It will come at some point, but I'd be surprised if it is before 2030.

The F1 and LMP1 rules over the last few years have directly led to the creation of the highest efficiency ICE and ICE hybrid drivetrains ever produced, and there will be space for them to keep doing so for as long as ICE vehicles maintain part of the market.
justapassenger
The thing with EV's is that its very easy to put in extra motors to have 4x4 traction or just a larger motor in as to off-set the weight issue. Model-S being the fastest acceleration production car is care in point.

When I typed the 2030 thing, it was a guess and I used the wording "likely", before sending I then googled it for a few minutes and changed the wording to almost certainly.

In 2009 when Musk put the Roadster on the road, the outcry was "we don't need EV's" and then quoting all the issues on EV's charging being slow, range limitations where can you do it etc etc etc.

In 2017, the world was quickly moving towards long-term acceptance of EV's, but not yet so as not to ruin "our" plans to own the latest V12 Supercar, or V8 muscle car or what ever excuse the petrol head community can think of. They were still rated as expensive, range issues and price noncompetitive until the early to mid 2030's, at best! Some EU manufacturers were to put an EV on the road, but carefully keeping them visually separate from their entrenched models. Toyota was saying EV's are not the future, hybrid is. Some countries had even put in longterm plans, usually 2035 to 2040 to ban ICE in major cities or in the country altogether.

In 2020, EV's are expected to on par price was for more luxury models by 2022-23, with economy class vehicles by 2025 if not sooner. EV's are now the fastest growing sector in a poorly performing auto industry. Some manufacturers have committed to end of ICE in their fleets by 2025 or sooner and others to have most if not all models with a choice of either ICE or EV by then if not sooner. Toyota has now added EV's to their future line up. The US manufacturers are basically planning to have all EV fleet options by the mid 2020's. Most Super car makers have also announced the end of ICE with either ICE/hybrid or EV only options.

Today I found a number of articles basically pointing towards increasing pressure on a timeline for when F1 be dropping ICE and also the relevance to continue to use an engine technology that by 2025 will be in rapid decline or completed terminated in the mid to top end cars and starting to impact on lower end priced cars.

2019 May Fed election Billy was stating Australia should target 50% EV by 2030 using incentives and penalties to drive this, I didn't agree with him and I know he wasn't basing this statement on fact, rather pandering to the Greens. However now today, I believe Australia will achieve this purely on commercial grounds and do so before 2030.

There is a famous photo of New York City in 1901 showing just one car in a street of horse draw vehicles. Then same location 13 years later the situation is complete reverse with just one horse in a street full of cars. I believe the evidence is there EV's are at the equivalent of 1901 and the reverse won't take as along as 13 years.

Regards
Shane
  ANR Deputy Commissioner

The ideal Bathurst 1000 is a three way Mustang, Camaro and Challenger/Demon shootout. Throw out the rule book, and let each manufacturer run their most powerful engine.

The reality is that nobody cared much for the so called super tourers when they were around just as nobody will give a sheet metal about EVs.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

The ideal Bathurst 1000 is a three way Mustang, Camaro and Challenger/Demon shootout. Throw out the rule book, and let each manufacturer run their most powerful engine.

The reality is that nobody cared much for the so called super tourers when they were around just as nobody will give a sheet metal about EVs.
ANR
Nope.

The development of the Camaro has been cancelled.

TCR looks promising as offering both a return to proper touring car racing and also a pathway for electric racing.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Interesting article about the problems a move to an electric car fleet would have, in addition to the fact that there's some significant consumer resistance to them. Climate Change Dispatch:

According to a recent report in Forbes, Tesla’s stock market value is already bigger than Ford and General Motors combined, and Elon Musk, whose company as of 2015 had already received nearly $5 billion in federal subsidies, now has a net worth of about $31 billion.

Whoever said the government cannot make anyone rich?...

...Americans in a recent American Energy Alliance poll expressed great displeasure over subsidizing EVs for the wealthy.

Only one in five voters would trust the federal government to make decisions about what kinds of cars should be subsidized – or mandated.

Many do not even like, or cannot afford, the innovations already introduced, as evidenced by data showing the average age of the U.S. vehicle fleet has increased in recent years.

You have to wonder if electric cars would be viable at all without the massive subsidies that they get.
  DJPeters Deputy Commissioner

One other thing about Electric vehicles what will happen to all the spent batteries that will need to be replaced at some time as nothing lasts for ever. You solve one problem and create another maybe worse problem in the future. Yes things will move on technology wise though but it is still a problem.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
One other thing about Electric vehicles what will happen to all the spent batteries that will need to be replaced at some time as nothing lasts for ever. You solve one problem and create another maybe worse problem in the future. Yes things will move on technology wise though but it is still a problem.
DJPeters
Most EV companies have given up the notion of mid life battery replacement programs with the older EV models (with older battery technology) now appearing to last the life of the car in normal use with acceptable levels of battery degradation and a much older EV in the future will not have the economic value to justify a battery replacement.

I was in a hybrid Prius in Cairns 2 years back and the driver said they replace the battery about 3 times before end of taxi life, but the km and climate were said to be a driving factor.

At the same time there is a growing market in the US they will expand to Australia when the EV is of sufficient size to refurbish older EV batteries for reuse. Audi's batteries will have modular battery sections that can be easily replaced should there be a failure of one unit. Also used EV batteries and even those from older hybrids are being converted to house hold battery storage.

The previous notion that landfills would be full of used EV batteries will not eventuate. Although we could just high temperature incinerate them, after all thats what we do with petrol/diesel/gas fuel and we breath that.

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