2019 Federal Election Thread

 
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Keep an eye on the PNG government situation as last night's news mentioned various members of the government siding or appearing to be siding with the opposition. That may bring the Manus Island refugee situation into the spotlight, as a side result. Add that to the growing troubles of Morrison such as the NSW water shortages.
That URL that wobert posted, and linked below if you missed it, states in Tamworth, there might be water for the town from the Peel river, but if it stops flowing, the chicken-processing plant downstream has just three to four days of water in storage and will need to close. That is Barnaby Joyce's area so he may need to take notice of job loses for a major employer due to the water problems, so close to his supporters.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/24/nsw-towns-including-dubbo-and-tamworth-face-water-emergency-within-months
petan
Don't get between Barnaby and a major water user further upstream - he'll have your head for it.

I really hope we have a Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling and how the various governments have mis-managed it, hopefully a real investigation and not a wet lettuce leaf like the banking one was.

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  justapassenger Minister for Railways

The other outcome of this process is every Project ends up using a unique set of bits which is generally not compatible with the adjacent bits, For example London's Elizabeth Line / CrossRail has tunnel clearances two inches smaller than the clearances neither side of it, as well as incompatible signal systems to those on either side of it. Bear in mind that the intent of the Elizabeth Line is for through main line traffic from the West of England to the East of England, which has been achieved, but it has been achieved by delivering a smaller loading gauge than its feeder lines, and an incompatible signal system, and it was delivered late and way over budget.

In case you are wondering why the projected West of England to Amsterdam through service will not happen, one major reason is 13 incompatible signalling systems and four incompatible electric power systems. The cost of getting one train set to meet these requirements means that a through service is totally uneconomic. I also notice that the cost of rebuilding train sets to increase capacity on the Heathrow Express service includes GBP1m per set just for the ERTMS refit, the internal refurb and exterior relivery is additional to this. ( Makes one wonder if change over locos hauling carriages may be a better alternative after all. )
Radioman
You seem to be very mistaken.

Crossrail has only ever been intended to be a London suburban/commuter line and not a cross-London route for mainline traffic. Only the dedicated fleet of trains will be permitted to use the 'core' section of the route, as the new stations all have platform edge doors and the planned timetable is too intensive to have a mix of different trains and stopping patterns using it.

Even if there was additional capacity on Crossrail for other operators, there are no security zones at the stations and no link to HS1 so international trains could not use it.

The North London Line already caters for cross-London mainline traffic, including providing a link to the Channel Tunnel Rail Link (aka HS1) which is used by freight at night.

There aren't any serious plans for through passenger services from anywhere other than London to mainland Europe, because none of them will be remotely close to competitive on travel time or have the passenger volume to make them viable to run. They would all be ruled out well before getting to dealing with signalling systems.
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
I may have posted some random crap, but at least it was remotely on topic.
But..........::precisely WTF does any of this shizola about underground in London have to do with our effing election Shocked

F it off into some other relevant thread......FFS!!!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Morton Thiokol built the SRBs, knew about the inability of seals to maintain their resilience in the cold and were reluctant to launch during conditions for which they had no data on safety.

NASA wanted to fly, believed their own (management) smeg on reliability and figured on a 1 in 100,000 chance of catastrophic failure. Had their management, who were clearly not typically engineers just done a quick sanity check on what that probability even meant (launching everyday for about 300 years and expecting only one failure) they would have seen their supposed reliability for what it was.
Any chance they could find a civilian contractor to blame Colombia on too?
don_dunstan
Yes they did and three years later when they worked out was really happening they issued a retraction.

The actual cause of the foam loss on both Columbia and Discovery was not determined until December 2005, when x-ray photographs of another tank showed that thermal expansion and contraction during filling, not human error, caused cracks that led to foam loss. NASA's Hale formally apologized to the Michoud workers who had been blamed for the loss of Columbia for almost three years
  ANR Chief Commissioner

Getting back to the fed up election, it is interesting how the seat of Macquarie is still in the balance. There are reports that the sitting MP Susan Templeman from the ALP won all the booths in the Blue Mountains by a big margin, yet Sarah Richards LIB won the booths in the Windsor area. What does this say about that electorate? Chalk and Cheese. The votes are still being counted and the ABC has them as 50/50 with 10% remaining.

Cowan is the other nail biter in WA, with incumbent ALP Ann Ally just ahead of Isaac Stewart LIB. I wonder if there will be any changes to the rules surrounding prepoll voting next time, or the AEC might take a good look at electoral boundaries and possible redistribution in not only these marginal seats, but in lots of seats.
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
Well, if it was the US, you'd be advocating a Gerrymander to fix the dilemma you speak of.....

From what I've seen online, they seem to do that quite well.

Probably won't happen here though??
  ANR Chief Commissioner

Is there a formula used here to determine electoral boundaries and redistributions?

Even Albo's seat of Grayndler has seen major changes since he first won that seat.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Is there a formula used here to determine electoral boundaries and redistributions?
ANR
Yes there is
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistribution_(Australia)

I think they try and combine like communities and use more easily defined geographic boundaries with certain population ranges.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
I have had two changes in my Federal Electoral Division without changing my address. I started off by being in Melbourne by about 100 metres from the boundary; then in Wills by 20 metres, and now back in Melbourne by about 200 metres. It seems to be a game of juggling population numbers, but I can't see where the population densities  have changed in this part of the world.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Any chance they could find a civilian contractor to blame Colombia on too?
“don_dunstan”
Did you read my post properly? ‘Civilian contractor to blame too’? NASA didn’t blame a civilian contractor for Challenger, the Rogers’ report effectively said ‘cause unknown’, it was Feynman’s minority report that fingered NASA management and complacency. The civilian contractor, Morton Thiokol was never in the firing line as such, Feynman just used what their engineers knew (or actually didn’t/couldn’t know) about the behaviour of the seals at low temperature to actually determine the root cause.
  Brianr Deputy Commissioner

Location: Dunedin, New Zealand
Getting back to the fed up election, it is interesting how the seat of Macquarie is still in the balance. There are reports that the sitting MP Susan Templeman from the ALP won all the booths in the Blue Mountains by a big margin, yet Sarah Richards LIB won the booths in the Windsor area. What does this say about that electorate? Chalk and Cheese. The votes are still being counted and the ABC has them as 50/50 with 10% remaining.
ANR
I lived for 28 years in the Macquarie electorate (Woodford 1981 - 2010). I cannot remember when the boundaries were changed  but remember discussion about how Windsor was so politically different to the Blue Mountains.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Getting back to the fed up election, it is interesting how the seat of Macquarie is still in the balance. There are reports that the sitting MP Susan Templeman from the ALP won all the booths in the Blue Mountains by a big margin, yet Sarah Richards LIB won the booths in the Windsor area. What does this say about that electorate? Chalk and Cheese. The votes are still being counted and the ABC has them as 50/50 with 10% remaining.

Cowan is the other nail biter in WA, with incumbent ALP Ann Ally just ahead of Isaac Stewart LIB. I wonder if there will be any changes to the rules surrounding prepoll voting next time, or the AEC might take a good look at electoral boundaries and possible redistribution in not only these marginal seats, but in lots of seats.
“ANR”
Cowan isn’t that interesting, the ALP candidate will most likely retain that one, although I think she’s going to face a bit more swing as the postals and pre-polls come in.
I think even more interesting are Bass, Lilley and Macquarie I had a quick look and neither of the three have the pre poll voting centres fully counted yet. The pre polling looks to be falling LNP, which means they might have Bass and Macquarie while Lilley with the ALP 901 votes in front is going to come to within a handful of votes, probably still for the incumbent.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Any chance they could find a civilian contractor to blame Colombia on too?
Did you read my post properly? ‘Civilian contractor to blame too’? NASA didn’t blame a civilian contractor for Challenger, the Rogers’ report effectively said ‘cause unknown’, it was Feynman’s minority report that fingered NASA management and complacency. The civilian contractor, Morton Thiokol was never in the firing line as such, Feynman just used what their engineers knew (or actually didn’t/couldn’t know) about the behaviour of the seals at low temperature to actually determine the root cause.
Aaron
Don't have a cow, man, just a passing comment. Civilian contractors were indeed blamed at first.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Predictably the public service is set to be squeezed because there's got to be more blood left there. If they try hard enough we could end up with just contractors and consultants, i.e. perfect Liberal Party socialism.

Now if global trade keeps on declining, if interest rates hit rock bottom, if wages do nothing, if the housing market remains lethargic, (and no rain), ScoMo will need a few more miracles.
Groundrelay
My comment was not about C&Cs always being a bad choice. In theory you could outsource most work/jobs including many military personnel.

The US experience shows it's not necessarily a cheaper option for taxpayers. Another issue is companies and government/politicians becoming too chummy.
http://www.marketplace.org/2019/01/17/rise-federal-contractors/

Bottom line is that it has to be paid for. Funny how within a week of the election, changes to GST are being floated.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

UK - 20% VAT
NZ - 15% GST
US - No value-added tax
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat Line
I must emphasise here...NOT the Victorian Andrews government, which has set a very high benchmark for maintaining honesty in government.

Mike.
I really hope you were being sarcastic there... otherwise you have no sense of what's really going on in the world.

Incidentally any whiff of a possible chopping of programs and services in your department... maybe like (dunno) The Overland? There's an article in The Age this afternoon suggesting that Andrews is going to cut very hard to make up for the lost stamp duty billions, I'd imagine transport would have to be one of those affected.

For the first time in about 20 years the NSW and VIC governments have to deal with falling stamp duty revenues - it's austerity time now, let's see how they deal with it.
don_dunstan

Agreed, there's a downturn in the housing market at this time and the state budget will reflect that...to a degree. However as astounding as this may appear, Dan is honest and will honour election pledges and the infrastructure that MUST be built. It's a pity he had to play catch-up with the 4 lost years of the Liberal Coalition behind us.

The housing market will not remain in the doldrums and definitely shows signs of resurgence.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-correction-is-nearing-its-end-property-prices-will-soon-be-at-rock-bottom-says-hsbc-20190510-p51lxh.html

Mike.
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
I must emphasise here...NOT the Victorian Andrews government, which has set a very high benchmark for maintaining honesty in government.

Mike.
I really hope you were being sarcastic there... otherwise you have no sense of what's really going on in the world.

Incidentally any whiff of a possible chopping of programs and services in your department... maybe like (dunno) The Overland? There's an article in The Age this afternoon suggesting that Andrews is going to cut very hard to make up for the lost stamp duty billions, I'd imagine transport would have to be one of those affected.

For the first time in about 20 years the NSW and VIC governments have to deal with falling stamp duty revenues - it's austerity time now, let's see how they deal with it.

Agreed, there's a downturn in the housing market at this time and the state budget will reflect that...to a degree. However as astounding as this may appear, Dan is honest and will honour election pledges and the infrastructure that MUST be built. It's a pity he had to play catch-up with the 4 lost years of the Liberal Coalition behind us.

The housing market will not remain in the doldrums and definitely shows signs of resurgence.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-correction-is-nearing-its-end-property-prices-will-soon-be-at-rock-bottom-says-hsbc-20190510-p51lxh.html

Mike.
The Vinelander
Read something in the age yesterday about there's apparently going to be more taxes for SOME things and charges
EDIT here it is



https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/property-sales-freefall-blows-5-2-billion-hole-in-victoria-s-budget-20190524-p51qxz.html
  GrahamH Chief Commissioner

Location: At a terminal on the www.
Getting back to the fed up election, it is interesting how the seat of Macquarie is still in the balance. There are reports that the sitting MP Susan Templeman from the ALP won all the booths in the Blue Mountains by a big margin, yet Sarah Richards LIB won the booths in the Windsor area. What does this say about that electorate? Chalk and Cheese. The votes are still being counted and the ABC has them as 50/50 with 10% remaining.
I lived for 28 years in the Macquarie electorate (Woodford 1981 - 2010). I cannot remember when the boundaries were changed  but remember discussion about how Windsor was so politically different to the Blue Mountains.
Brianr
The state electorate of Blue Mountains was solidly Labor in the decade I was at Hazelbrook from 1977. This largely overlapped the mountains part of Macquarie. In the state election of 1984 I scrutinised for a minor party at the Hazelbrook School booth. The Labor candidate and sitting member received about 25-30% more first preferences than the the Liberal candidate. My recollection is that this was inline with the electorate as a whole.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
UK - 20% VAT
NZ - 15% GST
US - No value-added tax
kitchgp

USA has sales taxes based by state
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sales_taxes_in_the_United_States

A few others
GCC countries - 5% VAT
Swiss - 7.7%
RSA - 14%
Russia - 20%
Japan - 8%
Canada - 5%, but each Provence has their own tax on top of this bringing the total to 15% in some areas of the country.

etc etc, all with their own exemptions, even in the GCC, the rate is set as one by the GCC, but where its applied is up to each country, hence KSA is more across the board, but the UAE has exemptions for medical, education, external travel etc due to 85% of the population being expat and hence use the private sector medical and education services only, which are not cheap. KSA uses the VAT to pull back some of the excessive govt pay rises.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Predictably the public service is set to be squeezed because there's got to be more blood left there. If they try hard enough we could end up with just contractors and consultants, i.e. perfect Liberal Party socialism.

Now if global trade keeps on declining, if interest rates hit rock bottom, if wages do nothing, if the housing market remains lethargic, (and no rain), ScoMo will need a few more miracles.
My comment was not about C&Cs always being a bad choice. In theory you could outsource most work/jobs including many military personnel.

The US experience shows it's not necessarily a cheaper option for taxpayers. Another issue is companies and government/politicians becoming too chummy.
http://www.marketplace.org/2019/01/17/rise-federal-contractors/

Bottom line is that it has to be paid for. Funny how within a week of the election, changes to GST are being floated.
Groundrelay
The Dubai govt / Sheikh announced a few years back he saw no reason the bulk of the govt departments could not be contracted out to ensure the best value for money for the govt was obtained in doing so.

However while some govt services are privatized as such, the focus has been on eliminating the need to use a govt office in the first place and a heavy focus in the move towards digital transactions. Today if you go into a govt sector office, you can see rows of empty cubicles compared to only 4 years ago you had lots or people and big queues. The power and water authority has been decimated of customer care officers.

In our local community we have a digital police station. There are no staff, just a machine to complete your police transactions and scan in documents, get print out.

Sold my car two months back, do not need to visit RTA, just do transaction on phone quoting our Emirates ID numbers and buyer already had bought insurance. New registration card couriered to his house in 5 days. So yes, I suspect the public sector is likely ready for a purge embracing the latest digital technology.


The GST is too complicated to touch and if any ALP Premier agrees to an increase, the ALP will be seen to "ripping off the working class", won't happen although I suspect it should be raised to 12.5 or 15%.


Regards
Shane
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Getting back to the fed up election, it is interesting how the seat of Macquarie is still in the balance. There are reports that the sitting MP Susan Templeman from the ALP won all the booths in the Blue Mountains by a big margin, yet Sarah Richards LIB won the booths in the Windsor area. What does this say about that electorate? Chalk and Cheese. The votes are still being counted and the ABC has them as 50/50 with 10% remaining.
I lived for 28 years in the Macquarie electorate (Woodford 1981 - 2010). I cannot remember when the boundaries were changed  but remember discussion about how Windsor was so politically different to the Blue Mountains.
The state electorate of Blue Mountains was solidly Labor in the decade I was at Hazelbrook from 1977. This largely overlapped the mountains part of Macquarie. In the state election of 1984 I scrutinised for a minor party at the Hazelbrook School booth. The Labor candidate and sitting member received about 25-30% more first preferences than the the Liberal candidate. My recollection is that this was inline with the electorate as a whole.
GrahamH
I would expect the BM voters are very supportive of the Greens and similar policies still today.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Getting back to the fed up election, it is interesting how the seat of Macquarie is still in the balance. There are reports that the sitting MP Susan Templeman from the ALP won all the booths in the Blue Mountains by a big margin, yet Sarah Richards LIB won the booths in the Windsor area. What does this say about that electorate? Chalk and Cheese. The votes are still being counted and the ABC has them as 50/50 with 10% remaining.
I lived for 28 years in the Macquarie electorate (Woodford 1981 - 2010). I cannot remember when the boundaries were changed  but remember discussion about how Windsor was so politically different to the Blue Mountains.
Brianr
Windsor I'd expect to be more Liberal and BM more Green/ALP.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Agreed, there's a downturn in the housing market at this time and the state budget will reflect that...to a degree. However as astounding as this may appear, Dan is honest and will honour election pledges and the infrastructure that MUST be built. It's a pity he had to play catch-up with the 4 lost years of the Liberal Coalition behind us.

The housing market will not remain in the doldrums and definitely shows signs of resurgence.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-correction-is-nearing-its-end-property-prices-will-soon-be-at-rock-bottom-says-hsbc-20190510-p51lxh.html

Mike.
The Vinelander
Sydney and Melbourne's residential real estate losses have slowed - slightly. They currently sit at -10.8% and -10% respectively; Sydney is now down -15% since its peak and Melbourne about -13%. I don't think I believe HSBC's call of 'bottom' for the east coast market - the losses have slowed down but they're still there.

If Perth is anything to go by then there's at least another 2-3 years of falls. This time last year Perth's losses looked to have stopped altogether: Now they're back at -8.6% p/a. I'd expect prices locally will be erratic but will continue to fall nationally - even my own city of Adelaide (recently proclaimed by the Advertiser as being 'immune' from the national property slump) has fallen -0.5% in the last quarter.
  9034 Train Controller



Bottom line is that it has to be paid for. Funny how within a week of the election, changes to GST are being floated.
Groundrelay

First I have heard of this.  By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
By whom?  or is it a figment of your imagination or have the labor states run out of other peoples money?
9034
Oh, I get it. Its only the Labor states that run short.

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