2019 Federal Election Thread

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Aaron, I know a number of people in Dubai who have migrated to Oz, some younger some older. I don't think some in Oz realise how bloody hard it is and especially once you hit age 34, each year after you need more money, more in demand skills etc.

Then you may not even get a normal PR as what happened to my back door neighbour, you get a interim visa which is like a self sponsored work visa for which you then face numerous road blocks in getting a job due to the govts stance of jobs for Ozzies. My neighbour is worth millions, an investment banker, but the banks said they cannot offer him a job until he gets a PR. So he's taken his money to the USA.

Other I know have failed the English test, multiple times at something like $2000-3000 a pop and their grammar/spelling is better than mine and these people are usually tri-lingual.

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  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Anthony Albanese has been elected unopposed as the Labor leader
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
It's still a lot more than that! Where is the migrant coming from? Sure, $30k might be the cost of the study component, but they have to pick a field of study that can lead to residency, some cost much more than that. In order to 'stay' at the end of their study the migrant also needs a permanent job in their field. Know how hard it is to get a permanent job in a relevant field when you are holding only a temporary visa?

On top of the cost of the study component, there are also the day to day living expenses during that study period.

Dependent on where the student is from, there is still the need to pass IELTS (or similar) to a minimum level 6 in each category - especially for those studying in fields like economics, accounting, teaching, anything relating to patient contact like medicine, dentistry, nursing, even social work and counselling.

The cost of the testing and the associated tutoring for IELTS can also easily top multiple thousands. For those of us here who have never had to sit an IELTS, to get a 6 score in each topic is a task that many posting here could simply not achieve.

The worst bit is, the testing is done over something like six hours IN ONE DAY, and when you receive your results the only feedback you get is 'comprehension 5.5' or 'written skills 5.0' with no advice of what you did well, wrong or otherwise.

The candidates are given no advice on how to improve, and their submissions are not returned.

It's just 'pay your tutor some more' then 'pay us again to re-sit', 'good luck'. I would be very surprised if even native speaking candidates from English speaking countries pass IELTS to a level 6 first try, few such would pass it on their second.
Aaron
IF the standards are so stringent then why are people graduating from Australian universities with extremely poor English as detailed here? Also you can get any job at all once you've graduated, it doesn't have to be in your field, migration agents get paid big $$$ to tell you how to get around any hurdles to residency and also start bringing your family over.

Foreign student regularly work more than the allowed 15 hours per week - this law is simply not being policed.

Universities are simply a back-door for cheap foreign labour; courses like dentistry and medicine are the exception but on the whole our third largest 'export industry' is just a visa factory.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

Anthony Albanese has been elected unopposed as the Labor leader
lsrailfan
There is chatter circulating on Twitter that 3 Liberal successful candidates may be ineligible to sit thus cutting the Liberal majority back to a minority government.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
There is chatter circulating on Twitter that 3 Liberal successful candidates may be ineligible to sit thus cutting the Liberal majority back to a minority government.
"nswtrains"

Until it becomes more than speculation on Twitter, I'd ignore it.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Don, IELTS is not a part of graduating from the degree, IELTS is the requirement to practice in the field post graduate.

Students can ‘easily’ pass the English components of reading/writing for the exam, of the conversationalist English required to get by in society, but professional registration requires a formal IELTS score.

My wife’s sister and husband sold up their entire lives in Poland and emigrated to Australia. She had already formally studied English in Poland for 20 years, even doing her Polish degree in psychology in English rather than Polish. She came to Australia and a bridging course in Australian conversational English, basically learning our slang, idioms and other non formal use before completing her masters in psychology in Adelaide.

AFTER that, she was still only TR, and to enable her to register/practice as a psychologist she needed an IELTS exceeding 6.0 in each examined discipline. That took her more than three goes, and in addition to her tutor, I would also inspect her practice papers and could seldom pick an issue - still no pass. She would easily make the grade as say a tradie, or a regular emigrant looking for an ‘unskilled’ position, but not for a professional role.

She was actually starting to wind up her affairs in Australia to move back to Poland when eventually she managed to gain the required score.

She was professionally registered, listed with AHPRA but still not eligible for PR until she had a permanent role in her field. Finally she was offered a position on near zero money which she took to gain PR. Almost instantly after that she was being accepted for psychologist positions that paid proper money.

Now she and her hubby are both citizen, but don’t kid yourself that it was easy, or cost as little as $30k they likely spent over $100k.

Just today I met a pair of American microbiologists, they became citizen on Australia Day just gone. They estimated that they spent USD320k coming here.

They paid USD60k for their skilled migrant visas, but then our government during the processing took their roles off the desired skills list and their visas were rejected because of that. They appealed but were told by the government to prepare to leave Australia because they were in danger of becoming unlawful in the country.

The best option was to apply for a different visa, which cost them USD40k which is what they were finally granted. During that processing time they actually won their initial appeal review and were sort of granted both visas, but even then it took half a year for our immigration to decide which of the technically two granted visas actually applied...

If you’ve not been through it (and my wife is still going through it) you have no idea what it’s like.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
IF the standards are so stringent then why are people graduating from Australian universities with extremely poor English as detailed here? Also you can get any job at all once you've graduated, it doesn't have to be in your field, migration agents get paid big $$$ to tell you how to get around any hurdles to residency and also start bringing your family over.

Foreign student regularly work more than the allowed 15 hours per week - this law is simply not being policed.

Universities are simply a back-door for cheap foreign labour; courses like dentistry and medicine are the exception but on the whole our third largest 'export industry' is just a visa factory.
don_dunstan
Well, I can tell you back in the 90's when I was at Uni Tas, which had a very large foreign student population, % wise due to lower living costs. English standards of many foreign students was pretty F'ed then as it is likely now or though I suspect in the age of the internet and GoT, its likely better now. Some you couldn't talk too.

Meanwhile if I recall the Native populations English standards at Uni was also pretty bad, you'd seen my standard here, a product of the NSW education system at its peak where my Year 7 class had +20 English teachers in one year (sorry, I should gave said teachers as most where not English teachers) because of Long Service leave and all sorts of PS rorts and BS the teachers played on the system.

Many Aussies of the past moved to Australia and started school not speaking a word of English, many of these are now very successful.

As for breaking the law, I've told you before, don't police it, you get what you deserve. I've said on the Real estate rorts selling houses to foreigners, the fine should be 100% of the property value to both buyer and agent. Likewise working more than 15h a week, the fine should be 100% of the offence to both student and employer.

My work friend here in Dubai, his (Indian passport holder) daughter just finished 4 years of Uni starting in Dubai and completing most in the Australian campus in NSW. She graduated with distinction this year paying full fees, health insurance and full board for 4 years to Australia. Now working in Sydney in her field earning a nice tidy salary (I know what it is and its not chicken feed) and expected to apply for PR/citizenship when the system allows, I think its 2 years of working. I say good luck to them. The law allows it and I think this would define the type of people we want our New Australians to come from.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Aaron; there are 2.1 million 'guest workers' or people with working right in Australia right now - there's many who are transitioning to permanent residency. These people are absolutely crushing wages and conditions in hospitality, cleaning, etc., traditionally the jobs that Aussie were able to get as last resorts. Educated people are fast catching up with their wages being crushed by imported workers and an over-supply of existing local graduates, you can see this happening before your eyes.

What do you have to say to the graduates from your esteemed institution who can't get work opportunities (or even unpaid work experience) and end up with useless degrees simply because the university sold them a qualification to an industry already saturated to the brim? Universities don't give a damn, their argument generally is that they're just there to sell degrees, they don't any duty of care to warn you that you could spend $100,000 in HELP fees on something you'll never get work in. The average student has no idea how competitive the job market is until they graduate.

For example, that psychologist lady you mentioned should have even higher barriers to entry into the Australian employment market, $100,000 was was too cheap.  For locals that industry is absolutely crazy competitive... so competitive that people now have to pay to get experience in counselling. Some private colleges in Melbourne will take $30,000 from you just for the chance of counselling people in a clinical setting. Masters is only for the top three percent or so of honours graduates so if you can't get into Masters or afford to pay to get work experience then you've effectively wasted four years of your life studying something that can't really be used for anything else.

Microbiologists - is there a shortage of graduates and experienced workers in that field here? I sincerely doubt it given we've just been building huge new medical and research schools in this town. $300,000 spent to come and work here is cheap.

You have nearly a million people in further education in this country at any one time - the sheer waste that currently goes on with graduates spewing out of universities unable to find jobs is being exacerbated by easy barriers to entry for foreign graduates AND foreign students once they graduate from our universities.

If I was leaving school right now I wouldn't even consider university, the whole thing has become a bad joke at the expense of young Australians.
  ANR Chief Commissioner

Best thing for young people to do is work with their hands. Electricians, Plumbers, good carpenters are hard to find and will always be in demand. Office type jobs are drying up outsourceed to the lowest bidder country.
  Duncs Chief Commissioner

Opinion Polls - Myth Versus Reality


Now that the federal election is over, the questions about the failure of the opinion polls to predict the final result have started. So lets look at how this all happened.

As a background, over recent years the two main polling companies (IPSOS and Newspoll) have for the most part got their predictions pretty spot on. For example, earlier this year the Newspoll very accurately predicted the result of the NSW state election. OK. So what happened this time?

Here are my reasons on what happened and why:


  • Australia is becoming increasingly a politically diverse country, so for example, an issue such as the Adani Coal Mine will play out differently in Queensland than it would here in Victoria.
  • The problem is that the main pollsters typically survey the entire country, so unless their sample is large enough, it is possible that the issues such as this one would not have become as obvious as they should have done.
  • In NSW they were only polling in one state on a range of local parties and local issues. So a more homogeneous political population to draw their sample from.
  • Then we get what is called non response error.This occurs when large sections of the population are not, or cannot, be effectively sampled and surveyed. So the representative quality of the sample declines. This has occurred before on recent occasions, think Trump and Brexit.
  • The most likely cause for this problem is the decline in the number of landlines, as these people cannot easily be located. Let alone contacted for a survey.
  • Robo polling doesn’t help either. As you are not talking to real person you can literally say anything you like when you key in your response. We find it harder to lie to people, so if people said one thing to the robo poll and then voted differently, that should not come as a surprise.
  • It appears that the major parties were picking up trends in for example Queensland, that the main pollsters missed. Now this may just be the political parties being wise after the event, but let us take them at their word. So they saw something the main pollsters missed. Incidentally the exit polls were also very wrong as well.
  • Here we bring stratified sampling in to play. This is a sampling method where we drill down into a specific location or strata. For this purpose we can look at individual electorates as strata areas and if these were sampled and surveyed individually, then we get a more detailed picture. As long as the sample was of a reasonable size, so around 500 people, then the chances of accurate polling are very good. So if the major parties did take this approach they would have  clearer picture than the mainstream poster who were more focussed on the “bigger picture” across the nation.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Opinion Polls - Myth Versus Reality


Now that the federal election is over, the questions about the failure of the opinion polls to predict the final result have started. So lets look at how this all happened.

As a background, over recent years the two main polling companies (IPSOS and Newspoll) have for the most part got their predictions pretty spot on. For example, earlier this year the Newspoll very accurately predicted the result of the NSW state election. OK. So what happened this time?

Here are my reasons on what happened and why:


  • Australia is becoming increasingly a politically diverse country, so for example, an issue such as the Adani Coal Mine will play out differently in Queensland than it would here in Victoria.
  • The problem is that the main pollsters typically survey the entire country, so unless their sample is large enough, it is possible that the issues such as this one would not have become as obvious as they should have done.
  • In NSW they were only polling in one state on a range of local parties and local issues. So a more homogeneous political population to draw their sample from.
  • Then we get what is called non response error.This occurs when large sections of the population are not, or cannot, be effectively sampled and surveyed. So the representative quality of the sample declines. This has occurred before on recent occasions, think Trump and Brexit.
  • The most likely cause for this problem is the decline in the number of landlines, as these people cannot easily be located. Let alone contacted for a survey.
  • Robo polling doesn’t help either. As you are not talking to real person you can literally say anything you like when you key in your response. We find it harder to lie to people, so if people said one thing to the robo poll and then voted differently, that should not come as a surprise.
  • It appears that the major parties were picking up trends in for example Queensland, that the main pollsters missed. Now this may just be the political parties being wise after the event, but let us take them at their word. So they saw something the main pollsters missed. Incidentally the exit polls were also very wrong as well.
  • Here we bring stratified sampling in to play. This is a sampling method where we drill down into a specific location or strata. For this purpose we can look at individual electorates as strata areas and if these were sampled and surveyed individually, then we get a more detailed picture. As long as the sample was of a reasonable size, so around 500 people, then the chances of accurate polling are very good. So if the major parties did take this approach they would have  clearer picture than the mainstream poster who were more focussed on the “bigger picture” across the nation.
Duncs
Adani is to Qld as the Franklin Dam was to Tassie that got Hawke into power aided by a recession and dislike for Fraser. So I'm not sure we are getting more diverse, different issues split different groups.

Polling accuracy is a global issue.
  RedEyeExpress Junior Train Controller

Location: Melbourne
The polls didn't entirely get it wrong. I first twigged that something was up on 16th May when I read https://bit.ly/2Wb74Qb
"An exclusive Ipsos poll for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age shows a significant gain in the Coalition’s primary vote, which has risen from 36 to 39 per cent in a result that is outside the margin of error. ........ The poll also reveals that early voters are favouring the Coalition and that this could be a significant factor in the counting of votes on Saturday night, given forecasts that more than four million voters will cast their ballots early.
...... Of those who had cast their votes already, 41 per cent said they were Coalition voters while 33 per cent favoured Labor, indicating higher core support for the government in this group than in the electorate at large. ........ On a two-party basis, those who have already voted favour the Coalition over Labor by 53 to 47 per cent. ........ The greatest rise in party support in the latest poll was a jump in the Coalition’s primary vote from 36 to 39 per cent since the last Ipsos survey in early May. ........ The survey has a margin of error of 2.3 per cent and was conducted by telephone with 46 per cent of the sample based on mobile phone calls."
  ANR Chief Commissioner

The polls could not see what people were thinking.

Was getting rid of Turnbull as Liberal leader, the right thing to do? Was it madness, or a very careful calculation? When you see what Bill was offering, it was the latter - no matter what anyone thinks of the right wing conservatives.

It had the help of Palmer's deep pockets, and the preferences of UAP and ONP.

When Palmer told Deb Knight that he was going to be elected to run the country, he wasn't wrong and that almost a third of voters had not shown their hand at that stage.

One thing that the polls were right about, was that Shorten was not the right leader. The policies he was pushing was another matter.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
ANR, absolutely getting rid of Turnbull was the right thing to do, and yes, it was very calculated, and it worked.

The best thing about ‘the polls’ being so wrong is that maybe, just maybe, we will get government(s) now that will stop bouncing from news cycle to news cycle and actually implement things and stick to them. If ‘the polls’ cannot demonstrate modelling of actual public opinions what is the point in parliament paying any attention to them...
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
ANR, absolutely getting rid of Turnbull was the right thing to do, and yes, it was very calculated, and it worked.
"Aaron"
Agreed.  The demise of Abbott will also do no harm at all to ScoMo and Co.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
ANR, absolutely getting rid of Turnbull was the right thing to do, and yes, it was very calculated, and it worked.
Agreed.  The demise of Abbott will also do no harm at all to ScoMo and Co.
Valvegear
...and Bishop retiring
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
ANR, absolutely getting rid of Turnbull was the right thing to do, and yes, it was very calculated, and it worked.

The best thing about ‘the polls’ being so wrong is that maybe, just maybe, we will get government(s) now that will stop bouncing from news cycle to news cycle and actually implement things and stick to them. If ‘the polls’ cannot demonstrate modelling of actual public opinions what is the point in parliament paying any attention to them...
Aaron
The polls, for what they were worth, collectively showed an ongoing and increasing trend towards a LNP win over the last few months, if there was sufficient time for the trend to run its course, which I think many including me didn't believe would happen.

Like most, I thought dumping Turnbull so late in the term, SCOMO was going to follow the path of the likes of Rudd, Barry Unsworth, Vic whats her name, Keanally etc etc and been another one year wonder, basically being promoted to Captain of the Titanic after hitting the ice berg.

BS was obviously nervous by the Poll trends through Q1 this year and hence I believe his calls for SCOMO to call an earlier election before SCOMO announced.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
ANR, absolutely getting rid of Turnbull was the right thing to do, and yes, it was very calculated, and it worked.
Agreed.  The demise of Abbott will also do no harm at all to ScoMo and Co.
...and Bishop retiring
RTT_Rules
Julie Bishop was one of the parties leading lights, I had/have a lot of respect for her.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
Julie Bishop was one of the parties leading lights, I had/have a lot of respect for her.
Aaron

There's even a photo out there somewhere to prove it Wink
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
ANR, absolutely getting rid of Turnbull was the right thing to do, and yes, it was very calculated, and it worked.
Agreed.  The demise of Abbott will also do no harm at all to ScoMo and Co.
...and Bishop retiring
Julie Bishop was one of the parties leading lights, I had/have a lot of respect for her.
Aaron
Me too, but she burnt her bridge with me over helping MT to take over and she knew this basically ended her career post MT.

I do however give her credit for resigning on a high and at the right time.

I do not give TA credit for contesting the 2019 election and failing, he should have resigned in the 2016 election, however he should not have been allowed to run for the seat in 2019. Had he not been there the LNP would have another seat. Too much speaking without thinking, never denying he didn't have further ambition for the PM's chair again, time was up.

With both these two out, SCOMO can move on with a more cleaner plate than had if either choose/was able to stay.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

I do not give TA credit for contesting the 2019 election and failing, he should have resigned in the 2016 election, however he should not have been allowed to run for the seat in 2019. Had he not been there the LNP would have another seat. Too much speaking without thinking, never denying he didn't have further ambition for the PM's chair again, time was up.
RTT_Rules
That was apparently also the view of quite a number of local party members.

There were reports that the preselection meeting had Abbott re-endorsed on a voice vote which was far from decisive, and the chair declined to go to a formal vote.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Abbott was preselected with a formal vote, 100 voters, 68 for, 30 against and 2 informal. Checked with a Sydney based mate, who I think might have had a vote in that preselection - he is certainly on the NSW state council of the Liberal party.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

How independent is Zali Stegall? Is it possible the Liberal Party would offer her a job, perhaps a ministry, approaching the next election?
  ANR Chief Commissioner

Looks like Bill's account of what happened at the ballot box yesterday has been predictably slammed. Of course the big end of town put the big money down, but there was a good reason for it in their view.

Green's were and remain off centre, too leftist and jumped on their bandwagon. He should have known not to do that given the leadership changes on all sides from Krudd to Malcolm in the middle (actually, left). Bill alienated what could have been core supporters in Queensland by losing sight of why the labour movement supports the ALP, ....jobs.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Bill alienated what could have been core supporters in Queensland by losing sight of why the labour movement supports the ALP, ....jobs.
"ANR"
Makes me wonder - did Malcolm take his mate Jobson Growth with him?

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