The corona virus COVID-19

 
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Australia is approaching (has passed) 5 million vaccination doses:

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/06/covid-19-vaccination-total-vaccine-doses_3.pdf

There is no mention of how many have been fully vaccinated, ie second dose. The State figures on the right are the doses administered at vaccination centres only, not those administered by GPs within that particular state. (Those are the figures quoted by most of the Media.) If you delve further into the Commonwealth Dept of Health's website you might find a more detailed analysis.

But then again it's not a race.
kitchgp

https://covidlive.com.au/

and in particular

https://covidlive.com.au/report/vaccinations-people

@migga has been pestering gvts on @twitter to get this data, which most have been reluctant to provide.

The bottom line is we still need a critical mass of people vaccinated with Pfizer before we can even consider changes to border policy.  AZ doesn't work against Beta, the-variant-formerly-known-as-B1.351 (Sth Africa).  It doesn't work against Delta-the-variant-formerly-known-as-B1.617.1 (India .2) after one dose, and serology studies suggest it doesn't work any better after 2 than it does against Beta.  In short, everyone done with AZ really needs boosters with Pf (assuming that works, no-one's properly tested it yet) just to deal with the current situation.  I can't see the Feds organising that though, not this side of the next next election.

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  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Yeah, but the vaccine reduces the duration someone is sick or even has any symptoms, mostly eliminates the risk of death, slows transmission and reduces mutations and allows life to return to normal.
Most people don't get sick from COVID19 anyway - its targets the obese, smokers and those over 85.
Just like all the non-elderly, skinny, malnourished slum dwellers in India, yeah? Or, am I wrong and it only targeted the people in India that can actually afford to overeat?
DirtyBallast
I'm not referring to India, I'm referring to what happened in the United States.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean
Yeah, but the vaccine reduces the duration someone is sick or even has any symptoms, mostly eliminates the risk of death, slows transmission and reduces mutations and allows life to return to normal.
Most people don't get sick from COVID19 anyway - its targets the obese, smokers and those over 85.
Just like all the non-elderly, skinny, malnourished slum dwellers in India, yeah? Or, am I wrong and it only targeted the people in India that can actually afford to overeat?
I'm not referring to India, I'm referring to what happened in the United States.
don_dunstan
Laughing
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Doesn't look good for Melbourne:
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Yeah, but the vaccine reduces the duration someone is sick or even has any symptoms, mostly eliminates the risk of death, slows transmission and reduces mutations and allows life to return to normal.
Most people don't get sick from COVID19 anyway - its targets the obese, smokers and those over 85.

And we will never get back to 'normal' in Australia - there will be another virus after this one.
don_dunstan
There will be a point when they will have to let the virus enter and spread...or an outbreak occurs that just cannot be controlled. The key is to have as many people vaccinated as possible before this happens.

As the vaccines are not 100% effective (yet everyone is pining hope on them as a silver bullet, which they wont be and never were) there is always going to be a risk that more people die after the decision is made to open up.

All my immediate family now has either first jab of AZ or has had Pfizer now. I am under 40 so still don't qualify.

I know many over 70s who are waiting for other options like the so called "patch" in development. These people are going to be what keeps Australia from returning to anything like normal.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Doesn't look good for Melbourne:
Carnot

This is another worry
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Might not be as bad as the numbers suggest.  Apparently linked and already in iso.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

All my immediate family now has either first jab of AZ or has had Pfizer now. I am under 40 so still don't qualify.

I know many over 70s who are waiting for other options like the so called "patch" in development. These people are going to be what keeps Australia from returning to anything like normal.
Mr. Lane

Pre-emptive victim blaming.  (Not by you @Mr._Lane - not even you @RTT_Rules)

6 weeks ago no-one could get vacced for love nor money.  Now, a handful of state clinics can't get over 50s to share a needle, and it's all their fault.

This is what I genuinely think is happening with our Vacc program:

Mid Last year Gvt committed us to AZ in advance of results of clinical trials.  I think that was the RIGHT decision at the time.  CLS could make it, no IP issues, used traditional Vacc methods and no bleeding edge tech like mRNA.  I want to stress, I think this was the RIGHT decision at the time.

Some PZ was ordered as a stop gap until domestic AZ production came on-stream mid this year.

Dec last year clinical trial results showed you-beaut new American Vaccs are really good, and AZ about as good as the Flu vacc: works a bit, not against all variants, better than nothing.

Early this year I expect the (Fed) Gvts advice changed: we need more - much more - mRNA.  But rather than suggest they "made a mistake" (even though IMHO they didn't), nor concede the late pivot to Pf has greatly delayed our Vacc rollout, they've used the blood clot issue with AZ to limit it's rollout to over 50s who "they" hope are far less mobile and not so important for achieving HI.

If it works, great!  But opening boarders still can't happen until early/mid next year.  If there is a big outbreak in the mean time, no biggie, in fact it's an opportunity to relax border controls, and as anyone who dies will likely be over 50, it's all their fault for not being vaccinated.

That's where we are now: deflecting blame until all those who matter (over 50s don't change their vote /s) are properly vaccinated later this year or early next.

ATM, the UK has relaxed it's lockdown (once COVID got to a "manageable" 2000 cases a day), but saw an immediate surge of cases AND hospitalisations and deaths.  The (poor) results from their "one dose" strategy prioritizing the vulnerable are hardly surprising, entirely consistent with what we know from the clinical trials, and what happens when you use a medication against the manufacture's advice in a way that hasn't been properly tested: it doesn't work.

(AFAIK) Many European countries are grappling with what to do with all their people who've had one dose of AZ: continue with AZ/AZ (eventually, shorten the gap), or go to AZ/Pf.

For the moment at least, Pf appears to be suppressing COVID through herd effects in Israel and the USA.  I'll be very interested to see how the UAE goes with it's 50/50, Citizens/slaves, Pf/SinoPlacebo strategy (/s @RTT_Rules, I'm joking!)  Of more interest is Pf vs Delta (formerly B1617.2/India).  Based on the reported R0 and Ve of Pf vs Delta, it'll be a near run thing.

The other big unknown is how long the Vaccs last.  (AFAIK) efficacy is a strong predictor of endurance.  The CEO of Pfizer has announced he thinks all their customers will need a booster every year (I have shares, Go Pfizer !!)  (AFAIK - ie I can't be bothered trying to re-find and link the study from Brazil which shows this) natural infection confers some protection for about 7-8 months.  On that basis, we can expect (a full course) of AZ to last between 8 and 12 months (but no-one really knows).  People in Oz will still be waiting for their first doses of any vaccine in March next year, at the time it wears off in those vacced with AZ today.

So, IMHO, before we can even consider relaxing border controls, we're going to need everyone 12-50 vacced with Pf, and most over 50 re-vacced with Pf next year, (if we're lucky with only one dose).  In the meantime, (IMHO) AZ is something of a national placebo, offering peace of mind that we have a vacc program, and soon everyone will be "vaccinated" - as distinct from our population actually protected.  Don't get me wrong, AZ clearly works, and clearly lowers the severity of COVID infections (except against Beta, but she'll be right), but it's not the way out of the pandemic.

Further, there is a good chance everyone in Oz will need to be boosted with "New" Pf (or New Moderna, New Novavax, New Coke) by then, even if it's just to hold Delta (the disease not the singer, but they are easy to confuse).  Unfortunately no-one even seems to be considering - much less planning - for it.  Clearly we have to wait for it to show up in the focus groups.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

I've had my rant for the day, rather than contribute to this forum being a trollfest, I wanted to say to @RTT_Rules in particular: I don't think we are doing anywhere nearly enough for our ex-pats.  I don't agree with his suggestions, but it should be much easier and cheaper for people in his position to cross our border - without compromising our safety.  We should be doing AT LEAST what they do in NZ (pre-booked HQ, no bumping off flights and no airlines exthorting people up to Business class, or just stealing/not refunding fares for permanently cancelled flights), and I'd suggest quite a bit more.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Incidentally, Israel had just 5 new cases yesterday.  Only 37 active cases in serious condition.

5 months ago they were dealing with 8000 new cases a day...

UAE on the other hand is still dealing with 2000+ new cases per day, despite a high vaccination rate of 68%.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Incidentally, Israel had just 5 new cases yesterday.  Only 37 active cases in serious condition.

5 months ago they were dealing with 8000 new cases a day...

UAE on the other hand is still dealing with 2000+ new cases per day, despite a high vaccination rate of 68%.
Carnot
UAE rose to 2000 per day following EID holidays due to number coming back from India before the UAE banned flights from the sub-cont nations, now expected to decline. Most of Israel does not celebrate EID or have 6m Indian's living in its borders. Israel only topped 8000 a day briefly.  

FYI - When the UAE banned Sub-cont flights, we didn't see the bleeding hearts in the media complaining they couldn't get out.

Lesson for you, no vaccine stops you from getting the bug, the vaccine trains your body to fight it in case you do.

UAE Vaccination rate is around 81% of suitable people getting at least one jab. Death numbers per remained constant despite rise, thus indicating the vaccine is effective. My 15 year old is now one jab down on Pfizer, my wife and I will transition to Pfizer from August.

We need to move beyond counting people with the virus, to focusing on the death rate/count. Once we return to a total death of CV-19 + flu being similar to the flu in previous years, we are done and time to get on with life and start travelling. Personally I think the UAE will likely be doing this from the 1st July or 1st August. As Sinopharm is coming around to 6mth since last jab, people are getting 3rd jab or moving to Pfizer.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I've had my rant for the day, rather than contribute to this forum being a trollfest, I wanted to say to @RTT_Rules in particular: I don't think we are doing anywhere nearly enough for our ex-pats.  I don't agree with his suggestions, but it should be much easier and cheaper for people in his position to cross our border - without compromising our safety.  We should be doing AT LEAST what they do in NZ (pre-booked HQ, no bumping off flights and no airlines exthorting people up to Business class, or just stealing/not refunding fares for permanently cancelled flights), and I'd suggest quite a bit more.
djf01
I don't think you post is a rant, its pretty close.

At this stage of the game, I don't see spending $100m's for a special quarantine centers as alternative to the hotels. With every 1m getting vaccinated using the current strategy the number at risk to severe complications reduces exponentially.

As for cost of getting home, it is now mostly sorted if you flight certain airlines. There are few delays and only minor bumping and thats mostly with Qatar airlines. The bumping is driven by state Premiers knee jerk reactions. The fact that Vic didn't stop or cut numbers this time sort of says common sense is being applied, for once.

The NZ system was always the better system as it took the issue off the airlines. The Govt should have made 3 or 4 hubs for which planes could then fly into each city with a reasonable passenger load. i.e. Dubai, Singapore, LA, Santiago.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Incidentally, Israel had just 5 new cases yesterday.  Only 37 active cases in serious condition.

5 months ago they were dealing with 8000 new cases a day...

UAE on the other hand is still dealing with 2000+ new cases per day, despite a high vaccination rate of 68%.
UAE rose to 2000 per day following EID holidays due to number coming back from India before the UAE banned flights from the sub-cont nations, now expected to decline. Most of Israel does not celebrate EID or have 6m Indian's living in its borders. Israel only topped 8000 a day briefly.  

FYI - When the UAE banned Sub-cont flights, we didn't see the bleeding hearts in the media complaining they couldn't get out.

Lesson for you, no vaccine stops you from getting the bug, the vaccine trains your body to fight it in case you do.

UAE Vaccination rate is around 81% of suitable people getting at least one jab. Death numbers per remained constant despite rise, thus indicating the vaccine is effective. My 15 year old is now one jab down on Pfizer, my wife and I will transition to Pfizer from August.

We need to move beyond counting people with the virus, to focusing on the death rate/count. Once we return to a total death of CV-19 + flu being similar to the flu in previous years, we are done and time to get on with life and start travelling. Personally I think the UAE will likely be doing this from the 1st July or 1st August. As Sinopharm is coming around to 6mth since last jab, people are getting 3rd jab or moving to Pfizer.
RTT_Rules
Australia isn't the UAE. The Australian public is now of the mindset that deaths should be 0...and most people think the country is overpopulated as it is and/or there are too many international students. None of the vaccines guarantee anything close to 100% protection. So...

Australia wont be opening up this year and probably most of the next.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Delta Cluster in Vic is confirmed be a Hotel Quarantine breach in the Melb CBD.  Probably lucky it coincided with the Whittlesea cluster and associated lockdown tbh:
  Madjikthise Deputy Commissioner

"When the UAE banned Sub-cont flights, we didn't see the bleeding hearts in the media complaining they couldn't get out."

Of course not, the only say that in countries where the government's reply to cries of racism, whether real or imaginary, is to immediately bend over.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia


Tend to agree
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Tend to agree
bevans
I have always suspected you were vulnerable to being swayed by the crackpot right-wing media and shock jocks.

Don't have the vaccine then. Your choice. But don't spread this nonsense elsewhere.
  Carnot Minister for Railways
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Australia isn't the UAE. The Australian public is now of the mindset that deaths should be 0...and most people think the country is overpopulated as it is and/or there are too many international students. None of the vaccines guarantee anything close to 100% protection. So...

Australia wont be opening up this year and probably most of the next.
Mr. Lane
Incorrect

All the mainstream vaccines have near 100% prevention of death. They also have close to 100% prevention of keeping you out of ICU.

The country will no doubt stay closed until after Xmas break, then open during the normally weak travel period of Feb-March as a test bed for the Easter break in late April.

The more other countries open and start getting back to normal, the more Aussies (a country of travelers) will want to do the same.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE


Tend to agree
bevans
Beavans

ADMIN should not be promoting or supporting such crap.

Suggest you show some commonsense and respect and delete it now or if not, other RP ADMIN step in and delete it.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Australia isn't the UAE. The Australian public is now of the mindset that deaths should be 0...and most people think the country is overpopulated as it is and/or there are too many international students. None of the vaccines guarantee anything close to 100% protection. So...

Australia wont be opening up this year and probably most of the next.
Incorrect

All the mainstream vaccines have near 100% prevention of death. They also have close to 100% prevention of keeping you out of ICU.

The country will no doubt stay closed until after Xmas break, then open during the normally weak travel period of Feb-March as a test bed for the Easter break in late April.

The more other countries open and start getting back to normal, the more Aussies (a country of travelers) will want to do the same.
RTT_Rules

Fully Vaccinated Adults 65 and Older Are 94% Less Likely to Be Hospitalized with COVID-19

"Close" to 100% isn't enough when the country has built up an expectation of zero deaths and the idea that vaccination is a sure fire silver bullet solution. People overseas are still being admitted to ICUs and dying after being vaccinated. Granted, they are almost always very old and frail (which has always been the case with COVID anyway), but Australia has picked the 0 death option now and it will be difficult to sell people an alternative.

Living in the UAE for so long I think you have lost touch with the local mindset here.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Australia isn't the UAE. The Australian public is now of the mindset that deaths should be 0...and most people think the country is overpopulated as it is and/or there are too many international students. None of the vaccines guarantee anything close to 100% protection. So...
Mr. Lane

I don't think it's a question of 0 deaths being a specific target.  The choices we have ATM are 0 deaths, or indefinite lockdowns.  There is no "manageable" in-between with COVID (at least not yet, vaccines *may* change that, but it's too early to tell for sure).

Every country/jurisdiction has had it's own threshold at which the risk to each individual is perceived as too high, and they go into lockdown.  Even in the USA and UK, only ~15% of the pop have had COVID.  That's were it always ends: lockdown.  

Vaccination doesn't need to provide 100% protection.  If mass vaccination drops the R_eff to less than 1, then the disease will die out, and most people will never be exposed to it at all.  If not, the Vaxx should theoretically allow a return to COVID 0 with shorter or less sever lockdowns.

But this idea COVID will be the common cold is just a fantasy.  COVID virus might spread like the flu, but it's primarily a vascular disease. No one talks about "the common polio", or "the common TB".  There is more reason to say "it'll just be like the common heart attack", and once we have defibrillators on every telegraph pole, we can all go back to normal.

Australia as a nation is living proof: prevention is better than cure.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

Fully Vaccinated Adults 65 and Older Are 94% Less Likely to Be Hospitalized with COVID-19

"Close" to 100% isn't enough when the country has built up an expectation of zero deaths and the idea that vaccination is a sure fire silver bullet solution. People overseas are still being admitted to ICUs and dying after being vaccinated. Granted, they are almost always very old and frail (which has always been the case with COVID anyway), but Australia has picked the 0 death option now and it will be difficult to sell people an alternative.

Mr. Lane
You are probably right.

I saw the interview with Federal ???? by Today and he was very clear, "at some point later this year or early next year we need to have the discussion to let the virus run into the community"

I suspect the govt will keep dropping hints like this to walk the community mindset where they want to go.

Zero deaths as the target vs projected 30,000 deaths with no vaccine, per year! And this is very clear, WITH NO VACCINE!

However with vaccine if the projected death rate was less than 365 deaths per year (or 1/day, UAE is currently 3/day), then is this the toll the community is willing to accept in return for freedom of movement in and out of the country? In 2019 there was nearly double this from the flu.

Living in the UAE for so long I think you have lost touch with the local mindset here.
Mr Lane

You are likely very much correct there.

I can tell you Aussie expats are pulling their hair out reading the BS from Australia and I'm not talking the hotel thing, most accept this is the right thing to do. The infighting between state Premiers and with Premiers and the PM as well as the Stockholm syndrome mindset that has take riff. If RP had a more user friendly method of sharing pictures you'd either laugh, cry or yell at some of the stuff that goes around in social media.

My very large and diverse work colleges (my employer has 7000 employees) are still stunned that my family, Aussie, vaccinated, cannot go home to a developed country.  Unfortunately this will no doubt likely to have to happen in a few months.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Melbourne has plummeted in the "World's Most Liveable City" rankings primarily due to lockdowns etc.  Dropped to equal 8th.

Radelaide (don't mention the HQ Covid leaks) has jumped up to 3rd....
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Whoever voted Melbourne as the world's most liveable city has some form of mental illness. Until Victoria has a visitor- friendly PT ticketing system it cannot possibly rate.
It's not that long since I met an American family on Rushall station where they expected to buy train tickets. But train tickets at a railway station? Are they stupid or something? In those days there was no Myki machine at Rushall, so you had to walk just over a kilometre to a 7-11 or newsagent and buy Myki cards there. Oh; you only want single trip tickets? Don't be bloody ridiculous; this is Melbourne; we don't have convenient things like that here.
The disbelief of the Americans said it all.

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